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March med-long range disco 3


WxUSAF

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The GFS for several runs in a row has been showing scenarios that will never happen verbatim. It's still doing it tonight. What happens from hrs 90 to 96 is completely not realistic. (Large precip shields don't do discreet jumps) 

But in spite of the messiness, the GFS continues to just paint heavy snow over the region in the Monday night to Tuesday window. That to me means multiple paths can pop the snow bomb over us. 

 

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I don't think there's a chance in hell we we have a rockin storm if the track is so far inland that Boston gets soaked. If it's inland up there, I'm not sure how it wouldn't be inland here. Could be wrong of course, but I don't remember any storm dumping on us and then raining up there. 

Regardless, long(ish) way to go. 

I believe January 2000 brought rain to Boston and even Maine, while we got a widespread 10-18".

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I don't think there's a chance in hell we we have a rockin storm if the track is so far inland that Boston gets soaked. If it's inland up there, I'm not sure how it wouldn't be inland here. Could be wrong of course, but I don't remember any storm dumping on us and then raining up there. 

Regardless, long(ish) way to go. 

A big negative tilt would do it.

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11 hours ago, Fozz said:

I believe January 2000 brought rain to Boston and even Maine, while we got a widespread 10-18".

It crushed Raleigh with historic snow, and then went due north and buried Richmond, DC, and Baltimore. That track was not very good for coastal New England.

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You think that's happening here? Not really pushing back, just curious. 

Cool. I'm just looking for the simplest way for us to get an HECS lol. I'm not sure that's it. I don't want to be waiting to see where the R/S line sets up on game day. Anyway, this is all premature. Interested to see where the Ukie and Euro go. 

When you say historic, do you mean historic for March, or historic period? 

I think a widespread 18"+ is a tall order, but you never know...

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There must have been a lot of bridge jumps for that one. I don't want to see the Ukie or Euro come west. 

Well January 2000 was a surprise here. The storm was supposed to go out to sea so no one in the northeast was expecting any precip until the night before when it was apparent the storm was heading due north. 

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