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March med-long range disco 3

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hmmm perhaps. I'm still getting vibes from a couple storms which shall not be named with the GFS/GEFS solution. But until I look at the NARR more closely to compare, I can't get any more definitive than vibes.

If everything looked like the gfs I would too. I think what bob was saying is the other guidance all seems to have more of a southern system attached to this. And the gfs seems to be heading that way. That buffers us a bit. The gfs has been playing catch up a lot lately so I guess we're assuming it continues towards more stj interaction and less northern stream dominant. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Just a reminder since I haven't seen the link lately (probably because there's been no need this year), but this site offers 3-hour Gfs text output. I have it for BWI,  but all you have to do is change the station code at the end of the url. Only downer is they don't offer all locations. 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kbwi

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Quasievil

Quasievil

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Just a reminder since I haven't seen the link lately (probably because there's been no need this year), but this site offers 3-hour Gfs text output. I have it for BWI,  but all you have to do is change the station code at the end of the url. Only downer is they don't offer all locations. 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kbwi

That link is absolutely fantastic. Bookmarked!

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea saw that but figured I might get something thrown at me if I went into that. Lol plus odds favor wet over white by then without some luck. But it's there. 

 

56 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I think the palm Sunday storm was even later.( March 29th I believe ) ...so yea it can happen. 

Yeah, tough in late March to get any real accumulating snow for sure.  But just recalling recently, we twice scored on March 25 in 2013 and 2014.  Those weren't "big/major" events per se, but I got 4" and 3", respectively, in those years on that day.  Latest I recall snow of any kind since I've been here (since 2001) was upwards of a tenth or two of an inch on grassy areas on Easter Sunday morning in early April of 2007 (I think that was the year).

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Bets on when we get NAM'd.   I'm thinking when it's first in range...like 6z/12z Saturday

You know we're going to get that one time at least!  But yeah, I think it first shows up (assuming we're still in this, haha!) will be when it's at 84h out.

(ETA, I should say when 84h out is the time that covers when most of the storm would be done, so guess that's close to 06/12Z Sat.)

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Bets on when we get NAM'd.   I'm thinking when it's first in range...like 6z/12z Saturday

Yea, there's definitely going to be a nam run with a disasterous outcome too sometime this weekend and there's going to be hundreds of ma weenies in cold sweats, shaking, and hiding behind couches until the gfs comes out. 

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, there's definitely going to be a nam run with a disasterous outcome too sometime this weekend and there's going to be hundreds of ma weenies in cold sweats, shaking, and hiding behind couches until the gfs comes out. 

That's about a guarantee as well!  Actually, whether or not the NAM throws out a crap run until the GFS brings it back to something good (hopefully) shortly thereafter...MA weenies will be in cold sweats and shaking regardless (and I freely include myself in that!).

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

I kind of miss when there wasn't as much data and 72 hours was forever out (crap the Avn only went to 72 and the ETA and ngm only went to 48 hours) so basically once a day we got a run of the MRF to 240 and the Nogaps that was junk went to 144. Other then that no guidance even bothered to go past 72 hours. No one had access to the euro and the crap free maps came out at 7pm so they were an afterthought. 

All that cut down on the looong drawn out anxiety as each run comes out on a long lead event. Even last January was rough waiting for the other shoe to drop. Wondering "can it really do this every run for 7 days". I miss when things just snuck up on us inside 48 hours.  With this I almost get a sense of relief after each run that is ok like "ok nothing went wrong". Now as the next run approaches it's a feeling of "ugh have to go through this again". The problem is if the run is good we gain nothing. It's still no guarantee of snow. Just we live to fight another run. But if it goes bad, the despair, the weenie overreactions, and the miserable mood that takes over in here. Way more downside then up. I'd rather just have a storm stay mediocre and start trending really good about 48 hours out.  Just enough to track it coming without days of worrying and anxiety over model runs. 

Ugh I probably need an intervention lol. 

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paweather

paweather

Posted
Posted
 

I kind of miss when there wasn't as much data and 72 hours was forever out (crap the Avn only went to 72 and the ETA and ngm only went to 48 hours) so basically once a day we got a run of the MRF to 240 and the Nogaps that was junk went to 144. Other then that no guidance even bothered to go past 72 hours. No one had access to the euro and the crap free maps came out at 7pm so they were an afterthought. 

All that cut down on the looong drawn out anxiety as each run comes out on a long lead event. Even last January was rough waiting for the other shoe to drop. Wondering "can it really do this every run for 7 days". I miss when things just snuck up on us inside 48 hours.  With this I almost get a sense of relief after each run that is ok like "ok nothing went wrong". Now as the next run approaches it's a feeling of "ugh have to go through this again". The problem is if the run is good we gain nothing. It's still no guarantee of snow. Just we live to fight another run. But if it goes bad, the despair, the weenie overreactions, and the miserable mood that takes over in here. Way more downside then up. I'd rather just have a storm stay mediocre and start trending really good about 48 hours out.  Just enough to track it coming without days of worrying and anxiety over model runs. 

Ugh I probably need an intervention lol. 

Longtime lurker, you couldn't have said it any better. the ETA and MRF. LOL. Love those days. Very few models and not so far out.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
 

I kind of miss when there wasn't as much data and 72 hours was forever out (crap the Avn only went to 72 and the ETA and ngm only went to 48 hours) so basically once a day we got a run of the MRF to 240 and the Nogaps that was junk went to 144. Other then that no guidance even bothered to go past 72 hours. No one had access to the euro and the crap free maps came out at 7pm so they were an afterthought. 

All that cut down on the looong drawn out anxiety as each run comes out on a long lead event. Even last January was rough waiting for the other shoe to drop. Wondering "can it really do this every run for 7 days". I miss when things just snuck up on us inside 48 hours.  With this I almost get a sense of relief after each run that is ok like "ok nothing went wrong". Now as the next run approaches it's a feeling of "ugh have to go through this again". The problem is if the run is good we gain nothing. It's still no guarantee of snow. Just we live to fight another run. But if it goes bad, the despair, the weenie overreactions, and the miserable mood that takes over in here. Way more downside then up. I'd rather just have a storm stay mediocre and start trending really good about 48 hours out.  Just enough to track it coming without days of worrying and anxiety over model runs. 

Ugh I probably need an intervention lol. 

I hear you...yeah, in some ways it was almost better on the nerves to not get any updates except twice a day!  With this event and others in the past, there is a sense every 6 hours of thinking "man, I hope things look similar and haven't turned into a disaster!"  But I don't think I'd trade the amount of information we currently have available at the same time.

Funny, but I recall when I was forecasting for a private company in northeast Ohio...during the 1993 blizzard (which hit eastern OH quite hard actually), I sat there in the middle of the night watching the NGM (yes, that model!!) slowly come in line-by-line on the fax machine printer, impatiently awaiting the latest information so I could assess things for the next forecast (we also were giving forecasts to the NY State Thruway at the time)!

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
The pieces look lined up for a whopper on the NAM

 

Look at the NAM already tilting negative or trying to well W of the Mississippi. Granted its the NAM at 84 but if I were extrapolating that model I would have legit concerns about an overamplified system. Whopper? Yes. Location? Uncertain but concerns.

 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
 


Disagree. Look at the NAM already tilting negative or trying to well W of the Mississippi. Granted its the NAM at 84 but if I were extrapolating that model I would have legit concerns about an overamplified system.

I don't live at sea level on the fall line.  An amped system isn't my concern.

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MountainGeek

MountainGeek

Posted
Posted
 

I kind of miss when there wasn't as much data and 72 hours was forever out (crap the Avn only went to 72 and the ETA and ngm only went to 48 hours) so basically once a day we got a run of the MRF to 240 and the Nogaps that was junk went to 144. Other then that no guidance even bothered to go past 72 hours. No one had access to the euro and the crap free maps came out at 7pm so they were an afterthought. 

All that cut down on the looong drawn out anxiety as each run comes out on a long lead event. Even last January was rough waiting for the other shoe to drop. Wondering "can it really do this every run for 7 days". I miss when things just snuck up on us inside 48 hours.  With this I almost get a sense of relief after each run that is ok like "ok nothing went wrong". Now as the next run approaches it's a feeling of "ugh have to go through this again". The problem is if the run is good we gain nothing. It's still no guarantee of snow. Just we live to fight another run. But if it goes bad, the despair, the weenie overreactions, and the miserable mood that takes over in here. Way more downside then up. I'd rather just have a storm stay mediocre and start trending really good about 48 hours out.  Just enough to track it coming without days of worrying and anxiety over model runs. 

Ugh I probably need an intervention lol. 

No -- I agree with the sentiment. So much long range low-accuracy data can definitely be frustrating at times.....maybe we should have, say, SUB-120HR and SUB-72HR ONLY tracking threads where threat discussions go after they cross those thresholds. Sure would be a nice filter sometimes if you're way behind on the threads or really busy and can't keep up with the long/med discussion but don't want to miss an actual threat within range..... 

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted
 


Disagree. Look at the NAM already tilting negative or trying to well W of the Mississippi. Granted its the NAM at 84 but if I were extrapolating that model I would have legit concerns about an overamplified system.

NAM 84 is lower with the height field ahead of the storm than the GFS 18z 90hrs and most of the 12z runs, but its further west so it may even out.

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