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March 10th event model discussion and obs


cae

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Roger Smith is clearly "Mr Doomsday Scenario", as shown by his bullish DC snow forecast on 2/9 and his warning that tornadic supercells were about to roll through our area last Wednesday, but I will say that the dynamics on this event tomorrow morning are extremely impressive.    So an overperformer is certainly possible, although the 6-10" followed by gusts to 60 is a fantasy forecast.

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

NAM's are pretty lame. 3k much less amped then before. Good luck to those in our northern tier, hope this pads (or doubles) your totals.

I don't think this will double my season total. I'm at 10.8 inches just north of the PA/DE line.  I think 2 inches is reasonable though. That would get me to a foot. LOL

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I hope this storm is remembered for anyone that like to throw out the March/sun angle/ground temps garble.

it was 51 deg right before midnight here.  Start time helped (5:45 IMBY) but it can happen.  Very little drizzle at onset but flakes mixed in quickly.

it is now 32 w/ light/mod snow.  Approaching 1/2", looks sno globish outside. Everything except pavement/roads covered, but see slush forming on back patio already.

to coin the infamous words of MLK...

"we CAN overcome"

I really hope the trends continue for Tuesday and the entire region can enjoy some winter.

Nut

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