TSG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: GFS is a bit slower than 12z GFS thru 12 hrs...thats another potential problem...if a changeover waits until sunrise..... Everything you post is a complaint. What's the point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Just stop. Go to banter. Not saying anything that is false..Im sure my downplaying of snow can be annoying, but in the winter that we have had, its done me well with forecasting for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Not saying anything that is false..Im sure my downplaying of snow can be annoying, but in the winter that we have had, its done me well with forecasting for this year. Your analysis sucks. You categorically said last night that the Tuesday storm wouldn't happen, so you don't really have much credibility anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 My official write up, even though nobody cares Last forecast for tomorrow morning: I continue to think that this isnt a big deal, despite a little more interest in the models with a faster cold push and changeover. Typically temps dont fall fast enough to support accumulation in this situation. That said, cant rule out very patchy minor accumulation on grass and cars around Baltimore. Further north near PA, thats a better shot to see a more widespread covering of a coating to an inch on cold surfaces. Dont think this will impact travel unless you are up across Extreme northern Carroll County and up into south Central PA but even there it shouldnt be a high impact travel disruption. The first image is the NWS most likely snow forecast showing under 1" for everyone. The 2nd is the MOST POTENTIAL MAP...meaning if the cold was able to change the precip to snow earlier, we could expect maybe an inch around Baltimore and 2 further northwest. Thoughts on schools: Like I said, I dont think this is a big deal but this is tough due to the timing. Any possible changeover to snow would be in the 6-8AM timeframe similar to the storm a month ago. That is typically after schools would make a decision, so generally I dont think there will be any delays or closings BUT I cant rule out a possible delay for Frederick County, Carroll County, Northern Baltimore County (Hereford Zone), Harford and Cecil Counties. I would lean against it, but I cant completely rule it out. Next Week: Models have trended in a better direction today with faster development of coastal low pressure so the threat of snow appears to be going up. But I am still cautious about the particular set up. I hope to give an idea of what could happen by tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: Your analysis sucks. You categorically said last night that the Tuesday storm wouldn't happen, so you don't really have much credibility anymore. I had a solid buzzBesides, it hasnt happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I had a solid buzzBesides, it hasnt happened yet. It's fine to have doubts (which I also had), but don't say it won't happen just because you're frustrated or because other events this season have failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxhoov Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Radar is looking descent! Temps not so much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I see considerable potential in this rapidly developing low to bring as much as 6-10 inches of snow to border regions of MD/PA late overnight and through tomorrow. Front will probably make a stubborn halt within sight of I-95 and this may lead to thundersnow in north-central Maryland. Accumulations in Baltimore and Washington may not begin until near end of event but could amount to 1-3 inches (2-4 noVA and around northern suburbs). Currently the northern leading wave in IL-IN is propping up the warm sector but this will collapse overnight and the main energy is forming around sw MO and nw AR. That energy will be close to central WV by 12z and if it happens to track any amount south of model track then snow could backdoor faster into DC. But I would be bullish on amounts in MD/PA. The air mass coming down from central Canada is exceptionally cold and will quickly infiltrate the feeble structure of this wave as the upper level winds move away from zonal to weak trough overnight. A likely weather sequence (IAD) would be 06z __ 55/48 RW (TRW) 2415G25 09z __ 45/45 RW+ 0824G35 12z __ 32/32 IPW+ S 0530G40 15z __ 29/27 S+ 0230G40 18z __ 31/18 SW- BS 3435G50 21z __ 31/09 SW--BS 3338G57 severe wind chill likely at conclusion of this snowfall event especially over coastal plain. Thundersnow most likely 09z to 12z around FDK to CXY The key to this event is rapid backdoor cold front development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: I see considerable potential in this rapidly developing low to bring as much as 6-10 inches of snow to border regions of MD/PA late overnight and through tomorrow. Front will probably make a stubborn halt within sight of I-95 and this may lead to thundersnow in north-central Maryland. Accumulations in Baltimore and Washington may not begin until near end of event but could amount to 1-3 inches (2-4 noVA and around northern suburbs). Currently the northern leading wave in IL-IN is propping up the warm sector but this will collapse overnight and the main energy is forming around sw MO and nw AR. That energy will be close to central WV by 12z and if it happens to track any amount south of model track then snow could backdoor faster into DC. But I would be bullish on amounts in MD/PA. The air mass coming down from central Canada is exceptionally cold and will quickly infiltrate the feeble structure of this wave as the upper level winds move away from zonal to weak trough overnight. A likely weather sequence (IAD) would be 06z __ 55/48 RW (TRW) 2415G25 09z __ 45/45 RW+ 0824G35 12z __ 32/32 IPW+ S 0530G40 15z __ 29/27 S+ 0230G40 18z __ 31/18 SW- BS 3435G50 21z __ 31/09 SW--BS 3338G57 severe wind chill likely at conclusion of this snowfall event especially over coastal plain. Thundersnow most likely 09z to 12z around FDK to CXY The key to this event is rapid backdoor cold front development. God I love your optimism. Your blessing makes an event real. Best of luck on your call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 HRRR was really good with the other temp bust storm and looks like just some flakes for most of MD and maybe an inch or so for Northern MD if it sticks fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Roger Smith is more of a joke than I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxhoov Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Roger Smith is more of a joke than I am. That was super bullish lol but i do think extreme northern baltimore and carrol counties could pick up a 2 to 4 event if everything goes perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Wxhoov said: That was super bullish lol but i do think extreme northern baltimore and carrol counties could pick up a 2 to 4 event if everything goes perfect Maybe, I just don't think so. Usually models over advance the movement of the cold air. Combine the fact that this may not even start precipitating until close to sunset, and well no bueno in my book. But time tells. And he isn't Bullish, he's full on metal straight jacket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 hours ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: My official write up, even though nobody cares Last forecast for tomorrow morning: I continue to think that this isnt a big deal, despite a little more interest in the models with a faster cold push and changeover. Typically temps dont fall fast enough to support accumulation in this situation. That said, cant rule out very patchy minor accumulation on grass and cars around Baltimore. Further north near PA, thats a better shot to see a more widespread covering of a coating to an inch on cold surfaces. Dont think this will impact travel unless you are up across Extreme northern Carroll County and up into south Central PA but even there it shouldnt be a high impact travel disruption. The first image is the NWS most likely snow forecast showing under 1" for everyone. The 2nd is the MOST POTENTIAL MAP...meaning if the cold was able to change the precip to snow earlier, we could expect maybe an inch around Baltimore and 2 further northwest. Thoughts on schools: Like I said, I dont think this is a big deal but this is tough due to the timing. Any possible changeover to snow would be in the 6-8AM timeframe similar to the storm a month ago. That is typically after schools would make a decision, so generally I dont think there will be any delays or closings BUT I cant rule out a possible delay for Frederick County, Carroll County, Northern Baltimore Next Week: Models have trended in a better direction today with faster development of coastal low pressure so the threat of snow appears to be going up. But I am still cautious about the particular set up. I hope to give an idea of what could happen by tomorrow afternoon. Good write-up, but I wouldn't be surprised if Towson-area schools were delayed tomorrow. They often seem to err on the side of extreme caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxhoov Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Maybe, I just don't think so. Usually models over advance the movement of the cold air. Combine the fact that this may not even start precipitating until close to sunset, and well no bueno in my book. But time tells. And he isn't Bullish, he's full on metal straight jacket Between The low dew points and watching how the radar is really filling in out west is just giving me alittle optimism Also i just dropped 10° in the past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, cae said: Good write-up, but I wouldn't be surprised if Towson-area schools were delayed tomorrow. They often seem to err on the side of extreme caution. I don't think they will. I'll give it a 10% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 My main point is that the developing low has two energy centers (now in sw OH and s/c MO) and the trailing one is far more energetic, which argues for a sort of slumping lead wave evolution overnight, followed by explosive development near WV-MD border. I feel quite confident about this being a much faster transition to very cold than is hinted at in forecasts I've read but the RGEM shows that both thickness and 850 mb temps are rapidly coming into snow-favourable levels by 12z. The really cold arctic air is rushing south to fill a void being created by the weakness of the leading wave. I think people are looking at the anemic cool air now in place in MO-IL rather than a bit further north where this storm will be getting its cold air from after about 09z. Widespread thunder is likely with these strong dynamics. But please note I am only saying snow at tail end of the event in DC and BAL, although this system has some potential to set up even further south given the latitude of the trailing wave (about 36 N). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I see considerable potential in this rapidly developing low to bring as much as 6-10 inches of snow to border regions of MD/PA late overnight and through tomorrow. Front will probably make a stubborn halt within sight of I-95 and this may lead to thundersnow in north-central Maryland. Accumulations in Baltimore and Washington may not begin until near end of event but could amount to 1-3 inches (2-4 noVA and around northern suburbs). Currently the northern leading wave in IL-IN is propping up the warm sector but this will collapse overnight and the main energy is forming around sw MO and nw AR. That energy will be close to central WV by 12z and if it happens to track any amount south of model track then snow could backdoor faster into DC. But I would be bullish on amounts in MD/PA. The air mass coming down from central Canada is exceptionally cold and will quickly infiltrate the feeble structure of this wave as the upper level winds move away from zonal to weak trough overnight. A likely weather sequence (IAD) would be 06z __ 55/48 RW (TRW) 2415G25 09z __ 45/45 RW+ 0824G35 12z __ 32/32 IPW+ S 0530G40 15z __ 29/27 S+ 0230G40 18z __ 31/18 SW- BS 3435G50 21z __ 31/09 SW--BS 3338G57 severe wind chill likely at conclusion of this snowfall event especially over coastal plain. Thundersnow most likely 09z to 12z around FDK to CXY The key to this event is rapid backdoor cold front development. I expect this to work out as well as your last snow forecast did Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I expect this to work out as well as your last snow forecast did Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Already sitting at 49 just north of Germantown. Pretty crazy temp gradient from the outskirts of town to my place. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I don't even know where 6-10" would come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 51/33 here Was 70 a couple hours ago. I am ready for my wet non accumulating flake-age. Bring dat sh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 51/33 here Was 70 a couple hours ago. I am ready for my wet non accumulating flake-age. Bring dat sh.Same. I just want to see flakes fly while models for the real event are running. Is that so much to ask Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxhoov Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Pittsburg got up to 74° today now their about 30 minutes from having snow sitting ontop of them pretty impressive stuff!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, mappy said: I don't even know where 6-10" would come from? Same place his seasonal snow forecast came from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Snow on (digital) snow? This year, yes.This is the year where just flakes flying warrants my attention let alone accumulation lolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Same place his seasonal snow forecast came from. yes! Totally forgot about that. Oh man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 38 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Already sitting at 49 just north of Germantown. Pretty crazy temp gradient from the outskirts of town to my place. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Good god. I just had an accident trying to find the temperature on that thing. Just got back from a whiskey-walk and it's 54 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 48 minutes ago, mappy said: I don't even know where 6-10" would come from? the sky mostly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Good god. I just had an accident trying to find the temperature on that thing. Just got back from a whiskey-walk and it's 54 here.Come on man. It's right between the thingamabob and the witchamacallit that measures the stuff. Not that hard Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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