Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,602
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

March 10th event model discussion and obs

cae

By cae,
in Mid Atlantic

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 262
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Not saying anything that is false..Im sure my downplaying of snow can be annoying, but in the winter that we have had, its done me well with forecasting for this year.

Your analysis sucks. You categorically said last night that the Tuesday storm wouldn't happen, so you don't really have much credibility anymore.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BaltimoreWxGuy

BaltimoreWxGuy

Posted
Posted

My official write up, even though nobody cares :thumbsup:

Last forecast for tomorrow morning: I continue to think that this isnt a big deal, despite a little more interest in the models with a faster cold push and changeover. Typically temps dont fall fast enough to support accumulation in this situation. That said, cant rule out very patchy minor accumulation on grass and cars around Baltimore. Further north near PA, thats a better shot to see a more widespread covering of a coating to an inch on cold surfaces. Dont think this will impact travel unless you are up across Extreme northern Carroll County and up into south Central PA but even there it shouldnt be a high impact travel disruption. The first image is the NWS most likely snow forecast showing under 1" for everyone. The 2nd is the MOST POTENTIAL MAP...meaning if the cold was able to change the precip to snow earlier, we could expect maybe an inch around Baltimore and 2 further northwest.

Thoughts on schools: Like I said, I dont think this is a big deal but this is tough due to the timing. Any possible changeover to snow would be in the 6-8AM timeframe similar to the storm a month ago. That is typically after schools would make a decision, so generally I dont think there will be any delays or closings BUT I cant rule out a possible delay for Frederick County, Carroll County, Northern Baltimore County (Hereford Zone), Harford and Cecil Counties. I would lean against it, but I cant completely rule it out.

Next Week: Models have trended in a better direction today with faster development of coastal low pressure so the threat of snow appears to be going up. But I am still cautious about the particular set up. I hope to give an idea of what could happen by tomorrow afternoon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I had a solid buzz;)Besides, it hasnt happened yet.

It's fine to have doubts (which I also had), but don't say it won't happen just because you're frustrated or because other events this season have failed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

I see considerable potential in this rapidly developing low to bring as much as 6-10 inches of snow to border regions of MD/PA late overnight and through tomorrow. Front will probably make a stubborn halt within sight of I-95 and this may lead to thundersnow in north-central Maryland. Accumulations in Baltimore and Washington may not begin until near end of event but could amount to 1-3 inches (2-4 noVA and around northern suburbs). 

Currently the northern leading wave in IL-IN is propping up the warm sector but this will collapse overnight and the main energy is forming around sw MO and nw AR. That energy will be close to central WV by 12z and if it happens to track any amount south of model track then snow could backdoor faster into DC. But I would be bullish on amounts in MD/PA. The air mass coming down from central Canada is exceptionally cold and will quickly infiltrate the feeble structure of this wave as the upper level winds move away from zonal to weak trough overnight. A likely weather sequence (IAD) would be

06z __ 55/48 RW (TRW) 2415G25

09z __ 45/45 RW+ 0824G35

12z __ 32/32 IPW+ S 0530G40

15z __ 29/27 S+ 0230G40

18z __ 31/18 SW- BS 3435G50

21z __ 31/09 SW--BS 3338G57

severe wind chill likely at conclusion of this snowfall event especially over coastal plain.

Thundersnow most likely 09z to 12z around FDK to CXY 

The key to this event is rapid backdoor cold front development. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I see considerable potential in this rapidly developing low to bring as much as 6-10 inches of snow to border regions of MD/PA late overnight and through tomorrow. Front will probably make a stubborn halt within sight of I-95 and this may lead to thundersnow in north-central Maryland. Accumulations in Baltimore and Washington may not begin until near end of event but could amount to 1-3 inches (2-4 noVA and around northern suburbs). 

Currently the northern leading wave in IL-IN is propping up the warm sector but this will collapse overnight and the main energy is forming around sw MO and nw AR. That energy will be close to central WV by 12z and if it happens to track any amount south of model track then snow could backdoor faster into DC. But I would be bullish on amounts in MD/PA. The air mass coming down from central Canada is exceptionally cold and will quickly infiltrate the feeble structure of this wave as the upper level winds move away from zonal to weak trough overnight. A likely weather sequence (IAD) would be

06z __ 55/48 RW (TRW) 2415G25

09z __ 45/45 RW+ 0824G35

12z __ 32/32 IPW+ S 0530G40

15z __ 29/27 S+ 0230G40

18z __ 31/18 SW- BS 3435G50

21z __ 31/09 SW--BS 3338G57

severe wind chill likely at conclusion of this snowfall event especially over coastal plain.

Thundersnow most likely 09z to 12z around FDK to CXY 

The key to this event is rapid backdoor cold front development. 

God I love your optimism. Your blessing makes an event real. Best of luck on your call.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BaltimoreWxGuy

BaltimoreWxGuy

Posted
Posted
Just now, Wxhoov said:

That was super bullish lol but i do think extreme northern baltimore and carrol counties could pick up a 2 to 4 event if everything goes perfect 

Maybe, I just don't think so. Usually models over advance the movement of the cold air. Combine the fact that this may not even start precipitating until close to sunset, and well no bueno in my book. But time tells. And he isn't Bullish, he's full on metal straight jacket 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cae

cae

Posted
  • Author
Posted
2 hours ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

My official write up, even though nobody cares :thumbsup:

Last forecast for tomorrow morning: I continue to think that this isnt a big deal, despite a little more interest in the models with a faster cold push and changeover. Typically temps dont fall fast enough to support accumulation in this situation. That said, cant rule out very patchy minor accumulation on grass and cars around Baltimore. Further north near PA, thats a better shot to see a more widespread covering of a coating to an inch on cold surfaces. Dont think this will impact travel unless you are up across Extreme northern Carroll County and up into south Central PA but even there it shouldnt be a high impact travel disruption. The first image is the NWS most likely snow forecast showing under 1" for everyone. The 2nd is the MOST POTENTIAL MAP...meaning if the cold was able to change the precip to snow earlier, we could expect maybe an inch around Baltimore and 2 further northwest.

Thoughts on schools: Like I said, I dont think this is a big deal but this is tough due to the timing. Any possible changeover to snow would be in the 6-8AM timeframe similar to the storm a month ago. That is typically after schools would make a decision, so generally I dont think there will be any delays or closings BUT I cant rule out a possible delay for Frederick County, Carroll County, Northern Baltimore

Next Week: Models have trended in a better direction today with faster development of coastal low pressure so the threat of snow appears to be going up. But I am still cautious about the particular set up. I hope to give an idea of what could happen by tomorrow afternoon.

Good write-up, but I wouldn't be surprised if Towson-area schools were delayed tomorrow.  They often seem to err on the side of extreme caution.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wxhoov

Wxhoov

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Maybe, I just don't think so. Usually models over advance the movement of the cold air. Combine the fact that this may not even start precipitating until close to sunset, and well no bueno in my book. But time tells. And he isn't Bullish, he's full on metal straight jacket 

Between The low dew points and watching how the radar is really filling in out west is just giving me alittle optimism 

 

Also i just dropped 10° in the past hour

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

My main point is that the developing low has two energy centers (now in sw OH and s/c MO) and the trailing one is far more energetic, which argues for a sort of slumping lead wave evolution overnight, followed by explosive development near WV-MD border. I feel quite confident about this being a much faster transition to very cold than is hinted at in forecasts I've read but the RGEM shows that both thickness and 850 mb temps are rapidly coming into snow-favourable levels by 12z. The really cold arctic air is rushing south to fill a void being created by the weakness of the leading wave. I think people are looking at the anemic cool air now in place in MO-IL rather than a bit further north where this storm will be getting its cold air from after about 09z. Widespread thunder is likely with these strong dynamics. But please note I am only saying snow at tail end of the event in DC and BAL, although this system has some potential to set up even further south given the latitude of the trailing wave (about 36 N). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
I see considerable potential in this rapidly developing low to bring as much as 6-10 inches of snow to border regions of MD/PA late overnight and through tomorrow. Front will probably make a stubborn halt within sight of I-95 and this may lead to thundersnow in north-central Maryland. Accumulations in Baltimore and Washington may not begin until near end of event but could amount to 1-3 inches (2-4 noVA and around northern suburbs). 

Currently the northern leading wave in IL-IN is propping up the warm sector but this will collapse overnight and the main energy is forming around sw MO and nw AR. That energy will be close to central WV by 12z and if it happens to track any amount south of model track then snow could backdoor faster into DC. But I would be bullish on amounts in MD/PA. The air mass coming down from central Canada is exceptionally cold and will quickly infiltrate the feeble structure of this wave as the upper level winds move away from zonal to weak trough overnight. A likely weather sequence (IAD) would be

06z __ 55/48 RW (TRW) 2415G25

09z __ 45/45 RW+ 0824G35

12z __ 32/32 IPW+ S 0530G40

15z __ 29/27 S+ 0230G40

18z __ 31/18 SW- BS 3435G50

21z __ 31/09 SW--BS 3338G57

severe wind chill likely at conclusion of this snowfall event especially over coastal plain.

Thundersnow most likely 09z to 12z around FDK to CXY 

The key to this event is rapid backdoor cold front development. 



I expect this to work out as well as your last snow forecast did


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Link to comment
Share on other sites
nw baltimore wx

nw baltimore wx

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Already sitting at 49 just north of Germantown. Pretty crazy temp gradient from the outskirts of town to my place.

IMG_2268.JPG

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Good god.  I just had an accident trying to find the temperature on that thing.  Just got back from a whiskey-walk and it's 54 here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...