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March 10th event model discussion and obs


cae

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Euro looks like it wants to give the northern tier folks 1-3 inches. Considering the trend, this could be a nowcast situation. I just think these things never end up as far south as the models show. It's 70 right now. How is it snowing in 12 hours or so?

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Euro has shifted the the heavier snowfall in the northern portion of MD farther south once again. While DC remains in the half inch mark the northern portion of Baltimore just gets into the 2 inch line now. We are now also seeing the 3 1/2 inch line into northern portions of Carroll and Baltimore counties.

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Euro has shifted the the heavier snowfall in the northern portion of MD farther south once again. While DC remains in the half inch mark the northern portion of Baltimore just gets into the 2 inch line now. We are now also seeing the 3 1/2 inch line into northern portions of Carroll and Baltimore counties.

Did you have a Panasonic map at 36 hours for snow total.

I can't get my Panasonic data to run.

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14 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Saw this play out a month ago....Models tend to overdue the cold push and switch to snow...Perhaps an inch or 2 right along PA line, otherwise non event.

The one thing about this event that the last one didn't have is the low dews out ahead of the precip field. Once we start to precip, we will wet bulb really well. Also, this system has a more robust CAA regime behind the disturbance, so despite the less dynamic nature of the system now compared to February, rain SHOULD likely turn to snow in the AM. The warm temps now will be a caveat to get any decent accumulations sans the the northern fringes of the state, but at least it'll be snowing. I don't think the main low will be the biggest deal for the day tomorrow. The opportunity for snow squalls to wander out of PA will be in play given the strong PVA and CAA through the afternoon. Temps will rise in the afternoon, but not very much that's for sure. 

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26 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Saw this play out a month ago....Models tend to overdue the cold push and switch to snow...Perhaps an inch or 2 right along PA line, otherwise non event.

Dewpoints much coolder for this storm.  Easier for column to cool.  Being discussed by redtaggers in Central Pa forum.

Nut

Edit.  See Millevilles expo above.  Spells it out nicely.

 

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

So my wife, who lived in Western PA for many years, wants to take a trip up with me and the kid to visit family in Philly Friday night.

 

Should I tell her we need to cancel or push it back a night? I'd love to catch the snow but I don't want to die, lol.

Saturday a better bet.  Friday evening squalls are being discussed and sound like they may be a little nasty.  Safe travels.

Nut

 

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3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So my wife, who lived in Western PA for many years, wants to take a trip up with me and the kid to visit family in Philly Friday night.

 

Should I tell her we need to cancel or push it back a night? I'd love to catch the snow but I don't want to die, lol.

 you would be fine by friday afternoon its suppose to wrap up around noon. And id imagine its gonna melt pretty quick on blacktop

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Just now, supernovasky said:

So my wife, who lived in Western PA for many years, wants to take a trip up with me and the kid to visit family in Philly Friday night.

 

Should I tell her we need to cancel or push it back a night? I'd love to catch the snow but I don't want to die, lol.

It's really going to be fine. Most people in the Mid Atlantic do drive in snow, even if it's sticking on the roads. I personally don't get nervous unless it's a surprise snow, so roads aren't being plowed and there's no pre-treatment.  

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Just now, gymengineer said:

Wes predicted before the February non-event that the 18Z runs would shift north because the models under-forecast the warm temperatures that afternoon. They indeed did. 

Did you read this post?

24 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The one thing about this event that the last one didn't have is the low dews out ahead of the precip field. Once we start to precip, we will wet bulb really well. Also, this system has a more robust CAA regime behind the disturbance, so despite the less dynamic nature of the system now compared to February, rain SHOULD likely turn to snow in the AM. The warm temps now will be a caveat to get any decent accumulations sans the the northern fringes of the state, but at least it'll be snowing. I don't think the main low will be the biggest deal for the day tomorrow. The opportunity for snow squalls to wander out of PA will be in play given the strong PVA and CAA through the afternoon. Temps will rise in the afternoon, but not very much that's for sure. 

 

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51 minutes ago, Wxhoov said:

So what are you figuring mappy? Should we be good for 2 inches of slop? Hah

hi, sorry about that.

so if you believe what the euro is putting out

Precip comes in sometime before 7am, but temps are already 32 or higher (further south you go). Which means, sure it could snow, but won't amount to much. A couple slushy inches could be the best we see, on the grass/mulch/deck surfaces. Doubtful it accumulates on the roads, or sticks around very long. Probably just enough to have northern Baltimore County delay schools and traffic to suck. 

Obviously the further west you go (Manchester for example) will do better. One they have better elevation and will stay cold longer. But any place that is borderline 32 or above... its just falling snow and crappy drives to work. 

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7 minutes ago, mappy said:

hi, sorry about that.

so if you believe what the euro is putting out

Precip comes in sometime before 7am, but temps are already 32 or higher (further south you go). Which means, sure it could snow, but won't amount to much. A couple slushy inches could be the best we see, on the grass/mulch/deck surfaces. Doubtful it accumulates on the roads, or sticks around very long. Probably just enough to have northern Baltimore County delay schools and traffic to suck. 

Obviously the further west you go (Manchester for example) will do better. One they have better elevation and will stay cold longer. But any place that is borderline 32 or above... its just falling snow and crappy drives to work. 

Haha no its fine! and yeah thats what i was kinda figuring. Just be nice to have alittle something to hold us over till tuesday

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