JoshM Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, downeastnc said: 06Z NAM looks pretty darn good.....temps at the surface are still meh hovering around 32 need that a few degrees colder but at this point realistically a general 1-3" event would be more than any of us should reasonable expect.... Considering MBY was showing zilch not too many runs ago, I would gladly take 5-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The 06Z GFS went south a tiny bit....it also cuts down snow totals over central NC, overall though still ahs the storm and the temps are a degree or two colder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Ignore the latest NAM, it gives my area 4-6", yeah, when pigs fly! The cutoff is very " Jan event like" so , there is that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS also gives central and eastern NC more snow Wed....1-3" even....would be quite the thing to get two snowfalls a few days apart in mid March. Not to mention we don't get above 40 IMBY for 4 days straight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Nicole, local met, going few flurries in mountains of Upstate, at best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Nicole, local met, going few flurries in mountains of Upstate, at best! Most models give you flakes, hope the Nam has it right lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 SREF snow probs are highest (>50%) along the VA boarder counties up in to southern VA. Looking at the Candian members and the late bloomer UK, sig but 24hrs slower), my guess is we see the guidance back off accumulating type at 12z, similar the to overnight Euro. While I don't have access to the EPS, I doubt the op is an outlier in its suite at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just a word of caution: Typically the clown maps are overdone..how much more is that so here? It's mid March after a very warm winter. It seems to me it will have to snow very heavily for a length of time to achieve any sort of accumulation. Unless something changes, this type of quick-hitter won't get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The WPC probabilistic forecast looks pretty good for NC through 12Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The WPC probabilistic forecast looks pretty good for NC through 12Z Sunday. Was just looking at that, I think if the Euro gets on board with the other models we see those percentages climb, the only reason they are not higher is the weak Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Might need to edit thread title to include Weds potential as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 38 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: SREF snow probs are highest (>50%) along the VA boarder counties up in to southern VA. Looking at the Candian members and the late bloomer UK, sig but 24hrs slower), my guess is we see the guidance back off accumulating type at 12z, similar the to overnight Euro. While I don't have access to the EPS, I doubt the op is an outlier in its suite at this range. I look for totals to increase today! As shortwaves get sampled and models figure this bomb out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 hours ago, downeastnc said: 06Z NAM looks pretty darn good.....temps at the surface are still meh hovering around 32 need that a few degrees colder but at this point realistically a general 1-3" event would be more than any of us should reasonable expect.... Yeah nice 06z GFS and NAM runs for the Charlotte to Raleigh to Greenville, NC crowd. Hard to expect more than a light event all things considered. Note again that met poster snowgoose has talked about how the Euro nowadays tends to be suppressed in the medium range, so wouldn't be surprised to see it sharpen the wave a bit as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The GSP forecast discussion indicates an intentional "low-ball" of the forecasted amounts so as to temper excitement. Nice!Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah nice 06z GFS and NAM runs for the Charlotte to Raleigh to Greenville, NC crowd. Hard to expect more than a light event all things considered. Note again that met poster snowgoose has talked about how the Euro nowadays tends to be suppressed in the medium range, so wouldn't be surprised to see it sharpen the wave a bit as we get closer. It could be a good hit if we can get temps 28-30 with decent rates and a deepening low right off the SC coast....the low track being flat without a turn up the coast also helps as it should reduce the warm nose chance.....all in all we are sitting pretty decent right now and I am starting to believe....which means the chances of the wheels coming off go way way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 06z DWD ICON goes out to 78...it is weaker with the wave setup and precip compared to GFS and NAM, but with similar temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Anybody checked the Arpeggio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Anybody checked the Arpeggio? the Dorian Mode is a whiff for everyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Don't reach for the NAM/GFS carrot just yet Ron, CMC, UK and EC all have the slp south of Pensacola 0z Monday, shorts weather as it passes off HAT later in the day. Our window is Sunday, we are going to have temp issues if this is delayed, book it, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Anybody checked the Arpeggio? What about the brick regurgitate model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Anybody checked the Arpeggio? It's cold and shows decent CAD wedging and good qpf. Probably comparable to CMC but a good deal colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: What about the brick regurgitate model? Always not money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, snowlover91 said: It's cold and shows decent CAD wedging and good qpf. Probably comparable to CMC but a good deal colder. Nailed Jan event!!!! Ride the NAM Appergio combo , till wheels fall off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Nailed Jan event!!!! Ride the NAM Appergio combo , till wheels fall off! Nam told you to buy a sled. Did you listen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 CMC from last night: Round one (Sunday) and Two (Tuesday): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 If we do get a round two on Tuesday, it could be more significant in terms of affecting roads. By that time ground/road surface temps should fall enough to allow easier accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 WPC with a "Heavy Snow Possible" area in W NC / E TN on their map for Day 3 (late Saturday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 RAH busting out all the March snow catchphrases: However, model spread remains quite large with the location/track of the sfc low, which will play a pivotal role in just how much liquid- equivalent precip will be realized across central NC. Case in point, the more southern/drier solution of the EC has a tenth to one- quarter of an inch of liquid equivalent across the forecast area, one-third the amount of GFS. Using an ensemble approach, the GEFS indicates a 0.25-0.50" across the area, highest SE. The sfc low track and associated precip should become better resolved by NWP models over the next 18 to 24 hours as the aforementioned northern stream currently moves out of a data sparse region over the Pacific Ocean and onto the Pacific NW coast. Additionally, it is important to point out some key contributing factors that could limit snow chances/amounts across central NC. 1)With the parent high so far removed(centered over south central Canada), models could be too cold, too quick; which will place even more emphasis on getting sufficient qpf amounts to diabatically/wet- bulb cool the low-level to support frozen precip. 2)The system is progressive-quick moving system, which tends to result in lighter qpf amounts. 3) We are getting very late in the season with higher sun angles along with the recent historic warmth resulting in very warm ground temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 ^that sounds like it was written by packgrad and Snowless in Carrollton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 They use "aforementioned" more often than I think I've read it anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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