CaryWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Thanks for NAM report folks--not bad. and no I do not think we had as much NAM agreement with GFS in the last storm. Of course it is in the >60hrs range so just looking for trends (potential NW shift, p-type, etc.) here and not detail at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Ok good deal. I thought we had a run or two that looked good but then it was the first model to trend away. But I don't remember all that well, so you're probably right...in which case, the 81 hr NAM is encouraging! Yeah look at the pic I posted above.. that's from the last storm. VIA Allan on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: READ BOTTOM: NOT FROM THIS STORMThis was the NAM 4 days out in JANUARY. It was rainy from get go **Rain Cold** VIA Allan on twitter back in January There you go! Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: READ BOTTOM: NOT FROM THIS STORMThis was the NAM 4 days out in JANUARY. It was rainy from get go **Rain Cold** VIA Allan on twitter back in January CR may be right. Thought there may have been one deviation run (more SE) but maybe not. Overall the NAM was unrelenting in it's pursuit of this prediction...like a cannibal chasing a fat kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: CR may be right. Thought there may have been one deviation run (more SE) but maybe not. Overall the NAM was unrelenting in it's pursuit of this prediction...like a cannibal chasing a fat kid. There may have been one that showed snow in RDU around 10-11PM after it had already been raining. The NAM was correct with starting us with rain all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I would interpret the NAM as basically a northern 1/2 of NC into S VA event. Southern half of NC is risky/wintry mixey. Southern trends may have come to a halt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The main takeaway is that we have the NAM onboard for snow in Wake Co., as a baseline. Let's see where we go from here. My bet is mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: There may have been one that showed snow in RDU around 10-11PM after it had already been raining. The NAM was correct with starting us with rain all along that seems familiar. It was a fairly close in run--like 36hrs out too I think. ...and why was I thinking earlier the NAM ran every 3hrs---confusing it with the SREF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Its a good thing when the CMC/Euro/GFS and NAM all show snow over you roughly 3 days out.....this is the case for a lot of NC right now....that said we all know where we live and how tough it is to get snow...oh and its March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The main takeaway is that we have the NAM onboard for snow in Wake Co., as a baseline. Let's see where we go from here. My bet is mostly rain. You mean... a "Cold Rain" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Lets see the GFS. At hour 24 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: You mean... a "Cold Rain" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 00z GFS is a little colder at 850 at hr60. Has a little more press southwest with the 50/50 low. A little taller with ridge along west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 0z @72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: 00z GFS is a little colder at 850 at hr60. Has a little more press southwest with the 50/50 low. A little taller with ridge along west coast Seems like 0z suite so far is going with a slightly stronger and slower s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Heavy snow from CLT to RDU at hour 84 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 RDU Jackpots this run. Still heavy snow at hour 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 18z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 LOW is near Myrtle Beach instead of Savanna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS says saddle up and enjoy the ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, BornAgain13 said: LOW is near Myrtle Beach instead of Savanna The south trend has ceased. As the sun comes up on Sunday, so does the temps. Playing a critical role unlike our storm in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: RDU Jackpots this run. Still heavy snow at hour 90. I see you've moved to Raleigh now so the jackpot follows you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, griteater said: GFS says saddle up and enjoy the ride What hour is that, Grit? Oh, and when does the north trend start? Getting about time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: What hour is that, Grit? Oh, and when does the north trend start? Getting about time.... hr84...Sun at 12z. Regarding the north trend, I mean, the only feather in our cap is maybe the Greenland ridging and solid 50/50 low....better chance to keep something south in that setup...but we all know the climo. Crazy to be in the ballgame given this winter and March 10 weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Why do we look at the clown maps? Just look at the precip maps, the temp fields on a 3-hr basis and cut the numbers in half. It'll be much closer. We also will have to deal with mixing, I guarantee it. Surface temps will be marginal and that's unlikely to change. Plus it's March. So it'll be a slushy wet snow that melts on warm ground. We could eek out a few inches that'll melt the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 At 96hrs, the Ukmet has the surface low situated just to the south east of Mobile, Alabama. The GFS has the surface low well off the coast of NC at this time. Still lots to be ironed out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: hr84...Sun at 12z. Regarding the north trend, I mean, the only feather in our cap is maybe the Greenland ridging and solid 50/50 low....better chance to keep something south in that setup...but we all know the climo. Crazy to be in the ballgame given this winter and March 10 weekend Yeah, that was the problem with the January storm. We had no high pressure to deliver cold, no 50/50 low or Atlantic ridging. This isn't great either, but it's a lot better. I doubt we see a massive north trend unless we get something like the Euro set up where the shortwaves operate in a different order. That could be in our favor (as it is on the Euro, with a single storm that stays south, probably delivering a decent bit of snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: hr84...Sun at 12z. Regarding the north trend, I mean, the only feather in our cap is maybe the Greenland ridging and solid 50/50 low....better chance to keep something south in that setup...but we all know the climo. Crazy to be in the ballgame given this winter and March 10 weekend Agreed. The ridging being slower to break down is key here, IMO. And Widre, everything you just said is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Keep in mind, if 7 inche's of snow falls, and the ground temps skew some of the accumulation, up above the ground in the trees it will be 100 percent paste, esp with 8 to 1 or 10 to 1 ratios. You get on the plus side of 5 inches of this wet heavy snow you best be thinking about alternative power, espeacilly with the early foliage that's come out. Just a fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.