WeatherNC Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Under-performed slightly by its 18z standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Under-performed slightly by its 18z standards Pretty bad when I can't even score on the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 ^ Lol, thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 RAH finished their afternoon AFD. This lead front will settle to the Gulf coast through Sat night, while a separate frontal zone --along the leading edge of arctic high pressure initially centered over the nrn Plains and Upper Midwest-- develops NEwd along/west of the srn Appalachians. As is often times the case, the models are likely too aggressive to bring that air mass Swd, in backdoor/damming fashion, through central NC Sat night. However, the sub-cloud and boundary layer will have already dried appreciably behind the lead front, such that surface dewpoints will likely be in the teens at the time precipitation streams E into the Piedmont early Sat night. As such, diabatic cooling should prove sufficient to cool the thermal profiles to ones supportive of mostly snow north of 64, with a rain/snow mix along the srn tier, **if** sufficiently heavy precipitation falls to fully wet-bulb the sub-cloud layer. Given that the models have trended drier with the 12Z run, such a solution is at least somewhat in doubt. Given the fast progression of the precipitation shield, in any one area for 3-6 hours, precipitation amounts should be relatively light, less than a quarter inch expected at this time. While a light snow accumulation may result, preceding warmth and ground temperatures would favor most accumulation on elevated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 My grid forecast: Saturday Night A chance of snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday Snow likely before 10am, then a chance of rain between 10am and 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Another great GFS run. This thing is a real possibility. Winter is coming back from the dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Debbie Downer AFD out of RAH but is to be expected given climo and still some differences in how much QPF. MHX on the other hand stops short of waxing it. Saturday night through Sunday night...Impacting weather will occur during this timeframe as a low pressure system develops over the Gulf of Mexico and strengthens as it tracks off the Southeast coast. Most of the models continue to show accumulating snow over the northern half of the FA, plus models are trending colder, especially 12z GFS. There remains accumulation differences in exactly how much snow will fall, but 12z GFS model is bringing the snow farther south than 24 hrs ago versus the Euro. Have adjusted weather grids to account for current trends, plus lowered temps based on the colder temps at 850 mb. Precip will begin early Sunday morning (after midnight) and lasting through early Sunday evening as high pressure builds into the area. Stay tune for further updates on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^ Lol, thanks man! That is two systems for the record, our church canceler and then a major for the MA/NE at day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Was hoping for that good of GEFS run...but on Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, packbacker said: Was hoping for that good of GEFS run...but on Friday afternoon. This run is epic. Features a second low bombing up the coast. Would mean a 2 hitter for coastal regions. Busy week next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauce-age Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Still looks interesting, but not to the point to lay down a bet at Vegas on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Any update for the 21z NAM? How does it look at 81 and 84? Realizing of course that Is in fantasy land for the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 55 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: That is two systems for the record, our church canceler and then a major for the MA/NE at day 6. Gotcha. Hey, at least we have one more shot to track something...while it lasts, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Gotcha. Hey, at least we have one more shot to track something...while it lasts, anyway. maybe 2 shots.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Any update for the 21z NAM? How does it look at 81 and 84? Realizing of course that Is in fantasy land for the NAM Epic. 2 feet for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Gotcha. Hey, at least we have one more shot to track something...while it lasts, anyway. We're tracking thru April in wnc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 30 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: This run is epic. Features a second low bombing up the coast. Would mean a 2 hitter for coastal regions. Busy week next week. The PNA ridge is hooking over the top...if that got stronger...EPS showing it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Epic. 2 feet for RDU. Channeling the DGEX??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 How was 18z GFS ?? Did I miss the talk, or did it just suck/trend north?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: How was 18z GFS ?? Did I miss the talk, or did it just suck/trend north?? forget the 18z 0z starting soon 36 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Channeling the DGEX??? XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: forget the 18z 0z starting soon XD Yeah, what could go wrong!? I feel like I need to make my trip to Roxboro for the weekend! Can't wait for the 0z Arpagee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 TWC local forecast finally getting a clue, am rain/snow for Sunday!! That's a win already, real snow be damned, it's March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Time to get nammed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Time to get nammed! It'll be North and warmer! Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 21z SREF plumes look anemic through 87, spot checking Raleigh, Fayetteville, Rocky Mount, mean is about an inch through 6am Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: How was 18z GFS ?? Did I miss the talk, or did it just suck/trend north?? pretty much more of the same....not moving much now run to run...of course it did that in Jan as well and gave me 12" of snow run after run after run...ended up with 1.5" of sleet after 32 and rain all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 NAM through 45 looks about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 NWS Newport/MoreheadVerified account @NWSMoreheadCity 41s41 seconds ago #Snow potential for Saturday night/Sunday. For a lot more details see our briefing: http://www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: We're tracking thru April in wnc. Tracking snipe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Tracking snipe? Flat landers needing rescued on the app trail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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