3/11-3/12 Winter Storm

[mrdaddyman]

11 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

All of the non-mountain NC people should be posting in here. They stand a better chance at seeing flakes from this storm than the New england bomb next week.... lol

+1

[SN_Lover]

I capitulate on both event's for RDU. Good luck to New England. 

[wncsnow]

GFS is ramping up totals again for SW NC out into the foothills..

[calculus1]

And, it's coming back north with the precip shield.

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[calculus1]

But, it goes *poof* at hour 42.

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[franklin NCwx]

Good gfs run. 

[griteater]

Yeah, GFS improved for TN into the southern mtns...not much difference east of there.

[griteater]

Just now, franklin NCwx said:

Good gfs run. 

Surely you care about more than just your backyard   

[griteater]

franklin - how do you normally do with this type of overrunning system in terms of snow totals....that is, do you tend to see enhanced precip / uplift in your area?

[BIG FROSTY]

Good gfs run. 

I see nothing good about this run.


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[mackerel_sky]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Surely you care about more than just your backyard   

GFS caving to NAM! Still white rain for me !

[franklin NCwx]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

franklin - how do you normally do with this type of overrunning system in terms of snow totals....that is, do you tend to see enhanced precip / uplift in your area?

Yes. Any moisture coming in from a west or SW orientation is enhanced in the southern mtns.

[mackerel_sky]

Whatever the " in house" model is on wyff 4, RPM?, shows snow starting around 2am-10am, some moderate and the snow line all the way to southern tip of Greenville county!! A lot better looking than the Jan event, as far as rain/snow line!

[DopplerWx]

just let me see a half hour of snow showers, all i ask. 

[griteater]

00z DWD ICON increased precip across S TN into SW NC...it has a 0.6 - 0.8 bullseye in southern mtns...it's light extending out east of the southern mtns.

00z UKMet increased precip in southern mtns and northern SC...it has 0.3 - 0.4 in W upstate...lighter amounts across S NC

[JoshM]

Euro looks good at 36, 540s into Upstate SC, light snow in a good chunk of NC (minus triad). Heavier snow similar to the NAM around NC/SC state line into the upstate.

[griteater]

3 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Euro looks good at 36, 540s into Upstate SC, light snow in a good chunk of NC (minus triad). Heavier snow similar to the NAM around NC/SC state line into the upstate.

Appreciate the info Josh...let us know if you have more details...QPF/Snow amts, etc.  Thanks

[BIG FROSTY]

Euro looks good at 36, 540s into Upstate SC, light snow in a good chunk of NC (minus triad). Heavier snow similar to the NAM around NC/SC state line into the upstate.

Josh what about N. Foothills Pal?


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[JoshM]

9 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Josh what about N. Foothills Pal?


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See PM

[BIG FROSTY]

See PM

Thank you Josh!!! Hope you can cash in on this one


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[snowlover91]

Not that it matters much but NAM made a significant jump north at 06z. 

 

 

[snowlover91]

RGEM brings at least light snows to most of NC. 

 

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Going down hill fast, I knew it though!!! lol

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning...then becoming mostly cloudy.
Highs in the upper 40s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. Light snow likely...mainly after midnight.
Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the upper 20s. Light
and variable winds. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of light snow in the
morning...then sunny in the afternoon. Little or no additional
snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 40s. Light and variable
winds. Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Light and
variable winds. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a slight chance of rain and snow in
the morning...then cloudy with rain likely in the afternoon.
Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. Light and
variable winds...becoming east around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain in the evening. Snow. Moderate snow
accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning...then becoming partly
sunny. A chance of snow in the morning. A chance of rain. Highs
in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 

[Rankin5150]

Good morning all.  I hope everyone is well. First of all, I am glad we have something on the table, after this MISERABLE WINTER! The models trends do not look good this morning, HOWEVER, looking at the overall setup, I think we are in for some surprises and some model changes today. The overrunning setup is classic for the Carolinas. There will be divergence aloft and the temperatures at the height of the storm will be fine.  I have seen MORE times than NOT that a system will OVERPERFORM, in lieu of underperform when you have this overrunning setup. The wetbulbs look pretty good too, if I am not mistaken. Lastly, looking at all of the models, it seems that they are STILL trying to pick up on the energy out west. WOW mentioned this yesterday. I dunno...I still think we need to see the 12z suite of Forecast Models, start digging into the shortrange models and of course...radar.

I kind of like the cards we have on the table for a sustained moisture train (boundary layer) and reasonable lift aloft. Thoughts GRITEATER? 

Hoping all the snow starved hounds get a surprise and GET HAMMERED with 8-12" of snow. Sign me up for that as well! LOL!

[frazdaddy]

32 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

Good morning all.  I hope everyone is well. First of all, I am glad we have something on the table, after this MISERABLE WINTER! The models trends do not look good this morning, HOWEVER, looking at the overall setup, I think we are in for some surprises and some model changes today. The overrunning setup is classic for the Carolinas. There will be divergence aloft and the temperatures at the height of the storm will be fine.  I have seen MORE times than NOT that a system will OVERPERFORM, in lieu of underperform when you have this overrunning setup. The wetbulbs look pretty good too, if I am not mistaken. Lastly, looking at all of the models, it seems that they are STILL trying to pick up on the energy out west. WOW mentioned this yesterday. I dunno...I still think we need to see the 12z suite of Forecast Models, start digging into the shortrange models and of course...radar.

I kind of like the cards we have on the table for a sustained moisture train (boundary layer) and reasonable lift aloft. Thoughts GRITEATER? 

Hoping all the snow starved hounds get a surprise and GET HAMMERED with 8-12" of snow. Sign me up for that as well! LOL!

Always good to have you stop by. 

[PackGrad05]

Definitely still looks "OK" for the southern tier counties...  Glad I live in the southern-most part of Wake.  My buddy in northern Wake is usually always giving me a hard time because he gets more than I do.  This may be a time where I get more than him... and by more I mean 15 minutes more of some flurry action.

[mackerel_sky]

Woke up to winter weather advisory and heavy cloud cover!! Would love to see temps bust, and stay in the 45-50 degree range, instead of the 57 that is forecast!!? The moisture seems like it will be good, temps are always a concern, but the nighttime arrival, should help as well!!! TWC  has 1" tonight and 1" accums tomorrow! Trying to temper enthusiasm, but wanting to see it ripping fatties, for a minute or two!!

[griteater]

1 hour ago, Rankin5150 said:

Good morning all.  I hope everyone is well. First of all, I am glad we have something on the table, after this MISERABLE WINTER! The models trends do not look good this morning, HOWEVER, looking at the overall setup, I think we are in for some surprises and some model changes today. The overrunning setup is classic for the Carolinas. There will be divergence aloft and the temperatures at the height of the storm will be fine.  I have seen MORE times than NOT that a system will OVERPERFORM, in lieu of underperform when you have this overrunning setup. The wetbulbs look pretty good too, if I am not mistaken. Lastly, looking at all of the models, it seems that they are STILL trying to pick up on the energy out west. WOW mentioned this yesterday. I dunno...I still think we need to see the 12z suite of Forecast Models, start digging into the shortrange models and of course...radar.

I kind of like the cards we have on the table for a sustained moisture train (boundary layer) and reasonable lift aloft. Thoughts GRITEATER? 

Hoping all the snow starved hounds get a surprise and GET HAMMERED with 8-12" of snow. Sign me up for that as well! LOL!

Hey Rankin.  For our areas, I would go with anywhere from "flakes flying in the air" up to an inch (ground coverage basically).  Last 2 models run improved slightly (didn't get worse more than anything).  Overall, it's a quick hitter with limited dynamics/forcing.  At this point, I think temps will be fine for snow as the main precip type.

[griteater]

Mack - for Simpsonville, I would go with light rain, to rain/snow mix, to snow ranging from "flakes in the air" to 1/2 inch

[burrel2]

I've got the feeling this storm is going to over perform for SC, specifically in an area from Florence, SC to Wilmington, NC.  Hi-Res models have surface temps below freezing in this area when the heaviest precip arrives along with -3'ish 850's.  Thinking somebody in this area might get 4 or 5 inches. All of the models,(Rgem,Nams, GFS) are picking up on this maxima. Folks in this area might be in for a surprise around 10am tomorrow.