Cold Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Earlier is not good, when you're waiting on cold! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 In my experience these fingers of precip leading a storm can really overperform. We have expected a dusting from a leading fingner in the past and ended up sitting with 2-3 inches. Of the few setups we get these overunning types seem to overperform the most. Watch for the nam and especially the HRRR to slowly bump up qpf across the area over the next day! Given the setup I believe we will have alittle more moisture to work with than currently progged. Our issue is it will be in and out extremely fast but I think a lot of NC folks have a decent shot at 1-3 and maybe even 4 toward western nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Yeah there is a fine line between a flurry and a 3-4" event with this system. One of these times we are going to get a storm that over performs and ends up surprising us with a good thump....the upside it it can really only trend better at the point lol...at this point I expect to maybe see some flakes with little to no accumulations except maybe vehicles etc...and even then a dusting to a inch at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 50 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah there is a fine line between a flurry and a 3-4" event with this system. One of these times we are going to get a storm that over performs and ends up surprising us with a good thump....the upside it it can really only trend better at the point lol...at this point I expect to maybe see some flakes with little to no accumulations except maybe vehicles etc...and even then a dusting to a inch at best. IMO it may be better than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Uhhhh anyone looked at radars??? Precip almost to nashville. Or Virga rather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM 00Z does look a bit better at hr 27 precip field appears heavier/consistent and more north in TN..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 nam looks better to me at 30, precip a bit more expansive north, lets see if it hold together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 19 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Uhhhh anyone looked at radars??? Precip almost to nashville. Or Virga rather I hope it's a cold front ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: nam looks better to me at 30, precip a bit more expansive north, lets see if it hold together It should wane a bit as it passes south of the mts, we just need it to be more organized and able to "refire" once its in central and eastern SC as it nears the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 nam @ 32hr. not a bad look. esp for sc/nc border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 another sc/southern nc special. blanks central nc. wake snow shield in full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Great! Every NAM run takes what little snow we were going to get, more and more north! Finally catching on to the 2m temps, the NAM is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Yikes the NAM went south of me lol..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Nam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 So, I wasn't counting on much here but the latest NAM has a nice transition to snow for about 4 hours or so. Will be nice to see anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Great! Every NAM run takes what little snow we were going to get, more and more north! Finally catching on to the 2m temps, the NAM is! huh? 4km NAM Jackpots your backyard.... Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 26 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Great! Every NAM run takes what little snow we were going to get, more and more north! Finally catching on to the 2m temps, the NAM is! Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, burrel2 said: huh? 4km NAM Jackpots your backyard.... Congrats! I was just looking at the simulated radar of that nam run!? Didn't wait on totals and may have missed a frame or two that got better!? I'll take that, all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, burrel2 said: huh? 4km NAM Jackpots your backyard.... Congrats! Lol... macks not even looking at maps, just assuming a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Lol... macks not even looking at maps, just assuming a fail. Mack = Sheetly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It would be something if North GA ended up being the jackpot in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Lol... macks not even looking at maps, just assuming a fail. When it happens all the time , you assume fail! The last 4 snowstorms for my area totaled like 40-50" on models, and I got 2" of sleet total for all four!??! Why would I ever assume fail?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Mack = Sheetly I knew he sounded familiar. Me? I just want Krispy Kreme doughnuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: I knew he sounded familiar. Me? I just want Krispy Kreme doughnuts. Mmmmmm. Cinnamon covered Apple-filled!! Or powder sugar covered blueberries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 00z Rgem looks like an improvement over 18z. SW mountains get clobbered. Also, congrats Florence, SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 00z Rgem looks like an improvement over 18z. SW mountains get clobbered. Also, congrats Florence, SC? Hug the Canadian!! Look at that band, Lee trough? Close to me! NAM /Canadian blend for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 All of the non-mountain NC people should be posting in here. They stand a better chance at seeing flakes from this storm than the New england bomb next week.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 00z Rgem looks like an improvement over 18z. SW mountains get clobbered. Also, congrats Florence, SC? It's a good run along with the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 So the 12km,4km, 3k NAM and the RGEM all show between 1.5 and 3 inches of accumulation here assuming 10:1 ratio's once we flip from rain to snow. I'll assume 1/4 of that doesn't stick at all to allow time for surface temps to reach 33/32, and I'll say the other half accumulates at about 8:1 on elevated surfaces. So, I think the upstate is good for a solid 1 to 2 inches. Maybe 3 inches in isolated spots if the banding trains over an area for a few hours. Southwest Mountains look good for a solid 4 to 8 inches since surface temps will be much colder there. What could go wrong? Surface temps could take longer to cool; however, soundings show an extremely shallow warm layer at the surface with -3 to -5 850's. I don't think it will take very long at all to go from rain to 32/33 degree snow in this case. I feel pretty confident that adequate moisture is going to be there (for the upstate) as the hi-res models do seem to be picking up on some mesoscale trough enhancement as Northeast winds wrap around the base of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 40 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Lol... macks not even looking at maps, just assuming a fail. Ha, it's Mack-bot Man, all I am seeing is QPF reduction. Yeah, RGEM did increase a little (it was very light to begin with), but the 18z GFS and 00z NAM decreased their snow footprint overall. Yeah, it's moving south into SC which is cool for those folks, but the bigger story to me is that the QPF is weak across the board pretty much now on the models. DWD ICON has been weak all along. Southern mtns look the best obviously, but we aren't ramping up with precip right now as we get closer, we are ramping down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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