griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Navgem is suppressed...some snow in N SC and much of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 JMA looks similar to Euro on Sun morning...pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoolBreeze said: I'm wondering what the ground temps will be during this time frame. It's been warm for a long time. It would take some good rates to cool things down for a significant accumulation I would think... Soil temps in NC are currently in the upper 50's/lower 60's, outside the mountains. https://climate.ncsu.edu/map/ Use the dropdown menu - top right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 This thing might be to supressed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: This thing might be to supressed... You must be related to Big Frosty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, griteater said: You must be related to Big Frosty? Im related to the VA/NC border lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 RAH's Long Term Discussion: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 245 PM Wednesday... Split flow will prevail through the period, with a couple of potential precipitation events late Sat night-early Sun and again late Mon-Tue, with the former likely to be a nrn stream-dominated quick-hitting system and the latter a potentially more wound up/phased one. A lead cold front, propelled by a strong shortwave trough forecast to migrate across the Great Lakes and Northeast, will cross centralNC during the day Fri - late morning to midday NW Piedmont to mid- afternoon over the Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain. A preceding mid level moist axis accompanying the aforementioned shortwave trough, and associated weakening band of showers with time and Ewd extent as it moves into an increasingly dry and stable regime E of the Appalachians, may support a few sprinkles or light showers over the Piedmont early Fri. Then, very weak instability on the order of a couple of hundred J/kg or less, but with weak moisture convergence along the surface front, may prove sufficient for a couple of shallow/light showers along the passing frontal zone as it settles through the Coastal Plain and Sandhills coincident with (near) peakdiurnal heating. It will otherwise be warm --mid 60s to mid 70s with NW downslope flow likely to help offset CAA-- and breezy both ahead of and behind the front. The noticeably colder air will arrive Fri night, with temperatures expected to fall into the 30s by Fri morning. ***And that's it... I think they forgot the next paragraph, which is the most important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 GSP Disco .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 255 PM EST Wednesday: All eyes are turning to Saturday night and Sunday as guidance is in good agreement that a Miller A type low pressure system will affect the Southeastern US. The 12Z operationalGFS and ensemble mean have come in colder than the previous run. Its temp and thickness profiles are now similar to the 12z ECMWF despite the low being farther north. Both models are also similar with theirQPF with the highest values near and south to the I-85 corridor. Both models have some frontogenesis over the area but little in the way of EPV. The GFS also shows a cross hair signature, but the snow growth level is around 15k feet and the omega is relatively weak. This is also a quick moving system, so the cold air moving in about the same time as the precip. Factoring all these features into the forecast means PoP has been increased to likely with a colder temp forecast. However, given the questions in the timing of the cold air, uncertainty remains high regarding p-type and how much snow if any fall. Not ready yet to get on board with the GEFS mean snowfall amounts given the track record earlier this winter. However, advisory to warning snow is possible across the NC mountains, with advisory level snow possible across the I-40 corridor. Some snow may fall south of these locations, but no accumulations look likely for now. Either way, lows look to be a little below normal with highs well below normal. Precip tapers off quickly ending Sunday night. Monday looks to be dry as well as high pressure remains over the area. Temps remain below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 NAM is amped...we rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: NAM is amped...we rain. NAM sucks, we toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: NAM sucks, we toss NAM is usually to warm...won't be to much to ask to trim off 10-15F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 19 minutes ago, MillerA said: GSP Disco Pretty dismissive and just about right in my opinion. This has got north of 40 written all over it for anything accumulating. I think the para has it right in principle. Maybe a bit more north for the rain/snow line IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: NAM is usually to warm...won't be to much to ask to trim off 10-15F. Yeah, it's underestimating the wedge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The NAM isnt very reliable 84 hours out is it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, it's underestimating the wedge! La French says amped too...but in a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: NAM is amped...we rain. I'm not sure that on the next frame we wouldn't be all snow though. GFS has same temps at that time and then drops them right after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 JB's favorite looks good too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: La French says amped too...but in a good way. That lead the way with the Jan event, as far as track and QPF, and NAM w/ 850s!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, Cary_Snow95 said: I'm not sure that on the next frame we wouldn't be all snow though. GFS has same temps at that time and then drops them right after 18z DGEX will let us know in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: JB's favorite looks good too... Pioneer model!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: That lead the way with the Jan event, as far as track and QPF, and NAM w/ 850s!? That was the German DWD Icon Mack...think it only goes out to 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 NAM soundings aren't that bad across N NC once precip wet bulbs....NAM looks north of the other guidance....we've seen that movie before though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: I'm not sure that on the next frame we wouldn't be all snow though. GFS has same temps at that time and then drops them right after Could be. 850s are below freezing right down to the SC boarder and dew points are still in the upper teens and low 20s over NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 You guys are hilarious! In a good way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, ajr said: Just checked because I was curious - sadly 72. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=dwd_icon Goes to hr78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: NAM soundings aren't that bad across N NC once precip wet bulbs....NAM looks north of the other guidance....we've seen that movie before though Do you believe this is the start of a north shift on models, or NAM out to lunch!? Iyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Do you believe this is the start of a north shift on models, or NAM out to lunch!? Iyo Going to be tuff to keep it south...but heck, I would have never thought we'd be in this position to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Brad panovich just made a post saying snow chances are increasing along and north of I-40. Funny, i thought they were decreasing with today's data... but he knows better than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Isn't it usually overamped at the end of the run? I think that's a bias. I'd take Nam more seriously inside 60 hours, where I'd give more credence to it's thermal profile trends and track trends. Right now, we have a usual over-amped Nam situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Isn't it usually overamped at the end of the run? I think that's a bias. I'd take Nam more seriously inside 60 hours, where I'd give more credence to it's thermal profile trends and track trends. Right now, we have a usual over-amped Nam situation. Normally yes. This year I put a little more stock in it after the January storm. The NAM and German model were the only ones that showed a stronger system consistently even if the track wasn't consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.