mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Anyone have a euro map for central NC? Flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Flurries What's the latest showing for upstate sc Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Anyone have a euro map for central NC? .5 -1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Euro Snow....thin strip, but OK in some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, odell.moton said: What's the latest showing for upstate sc Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Solid 2-3"! Expect a dusting at best, don't think 2M temps are gonna be there, so it's hard to get snow to accumulate with 2m temps at 40-42 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro Snow....thin strip, but OK in some areas Looks NAM like, but not nearly as South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 ^ looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Any chance that precip shield moves east? What will it take? (dynamically, not miracle-wise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Any chance that precip shield moves east? What will it take? (dynamically, not miracle-wise) I think it's just weakened by the mountains and losing steam as a combo!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Any chance that precip shield moves east? What will it take? (dynamically, not miracle-wise) The wave has to be sharper and stronger and faster than what the models are showing right now. It is just getting squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 31 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Is the lack of precipitation in central NC due to subsidence as the air moves lee of the mountains? Just wondering why the cut off... 5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Any chance that precip shield moves east? What will it take? (dynamically, not miracle-wise) Agree with cold rain, that you'd want to see some sharpening of the 500mb wave - that would translate down to 700mb / 850mb as well. The limited dynamics with this system associated with the snow in terms of frontogenesis and 850mb warm advection on the NAM appear to roll thru TN to S NC / N SC then toward Wilimington.....as opposed to hooking back to the NE into NE NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 hours ago, burrel2 said: I'll gladly cash out with this. It's becoming apparent that there is potential for a little accumulation in the upstate Sunday morning. We will likely lose up to 1/4 inch of liquid to cooling the boundary layer before flipping to snow that sticks on grass. It is all going to come down to banding and how that sets up over the area. Some models seem so have a heavy axis of precip setting up fairly far south, from say athens to columbia, SC. Other models have it more north. If a band of heavy precip does form over area's with subfreezing 850's I think said area will get a decent 1 to 3 inch thump Sunday morning. It's interesting to note the higher resolution models, nam, 4km nam, 3km nam, ICOn,and rgem all show that narrow band of heavier precip...with the 4km/3x nam being a little further south with it. For those on the edge....keep taps on the 925 to 950mb temps....as that is likely the rain/snow transition.... The 925mb temps crash really fast after 06z from the east/northeast in sc....and end up being quite cold by 09z for most of south carolina. They also fall quickly from the northwest over al/ga..but it won't happen until the tail end of the precip. Unfortunately for the heart of north ga (atlanta to athens)....will be the last place to see cold enough 925/950mb temps. Best chance for a change to snow before ending looks to be north/east of athens and west/northwest ga outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Poimen said: Roads treated here, too, at least on Piney Grove. Not.Sure.Why. DOT spending their budget so they can get funds for next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 ^exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauce-age Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Raleigh brine trucks out in full force, all driver's seen with substantial purple and red mustaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I am going to be back in Marion, NC this weekend and look to cash in and might cash in again next week in Danville.. I really think the increased amounts in SW NC could be due to some type of mechanism increasing lift such as a lee trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 You would think that these low tracks would keep the folks in Western NC in the game: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I am going to be back in Marion, NC this weekend and look to cash in and might cash in again next week in Danville.. I really think the increased amounts in SW NC could be due to some type of mechanism increasing lift such as a lee trough Welcome home!!! Hope we can cash in for one last horrah maybe two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looks like the NAM is going to be a little south....may get Mack in on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GSP disco, and they have posted some watches and warnings. Short term /Saturday night through Monday/... as of 230 PM EST friday: forecast confidence is gradually improving as the NAM, GFS, and CMC are exhibiting better agreement in the quantitative precipitation forecast and thermal fields for the weekend event. The 12z European model (ecmwf) remains the most conservative on snowfall across the region, but the general placement lines up fairly well with the other models. For the specifics, a 500 mb shortwave will dive rapidly from the plains states Saturday evening to the southern Appalachians Sunday morning. Ahead of this wave, a 140 kt upper jet streak will stretch across the mid-Atlantic region and maximize upper divergence over our area by daybreak Sunday. An 850 mb baroclinic zone stretched across the forecast area will see upglide activation Saturday evening, with isentropic lift maximizing during the overnight hours. Meanwhile, deep moisture will develop overhead from both Gulf moisture sources at low levels and moisture accompanying the short wave at mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Any brief warm nosing at onset in the thermal profiles will wet bulb quickly to support all snow except in the southeast half where the surface based warm layer may be too deep for snow for most of the event. Warm Road surfaces could also eat into the accumulation potential, especially in foothill and Piedmont locations. But, improved rates during the period of peak forcing early Sunday morning should overcome most ground temperature issues across the snowy areas. All told, will be upgrading the watch to a Winter Storm Warning, adding a tier of Winter Storm Watch to the southern NC mountains, and posting snow advisories across the NC foothills and out along I-40 where accumulating snow confidence is highest. The Charlotte Metro area and Rabun County Georgia could well need advisories at some point, but will await improved confidence. 850 mb northwesterly downsloping flow should end precipitation Sunday morning for most areas, with possible lingering weak banding over the NC mountains. It does appear that mid level drying could cut off ice nucleation over the mountains for some light freezing rain/freezing drizzle at the very end of the event. However, that appears to be a narrow window and lingering showers could loft moisture into the ice Crystal zone, so no freezing ptypes will be mentioned. A 10 am expiration on all west-southwest hazards seems fine. A brief lull in the upper support and moisture will then occur Sunday afternoon and Sunday night before a more prominent wave begins to sharpen up over the Central Plains and digs through the Mississippi River valley on Monday. Upglide moisture will return from the south through the day on Monday as flow turns southerly atop the strengthening cold air damming layer in place across the region south of 1033 mb high pressure centered over NY/PA. The main source of uncertainty for Monday will be how much separation occurs between the lingering coastal/offshore waters system and the next system approaching from the west. The European model (ecmwf) is an outlier in keeping very little separation in the moisture between systems while the GFS/NAM/CMC all feature good late Sunday drying and a longer lull. Mixed ptype issues seem fairly certain as the 850 mb zero isotherm moves north through the day, pinching any snow/sleet areas back toward the northern Blue Ridge through late day. Any convection should stay south and southwest of the forecast area in the warm sector Monday as The Wedge intensifies. Maxes should struggle through the upper 30s/lower 40s given the cold air damming Monday afternoon. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, griteater said: Looks like the NAM is going to be a little south....may get Mack in on this run Come on, NAM me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 NAM looks like a Grit/Wow special...you two suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 18Z NAM just crushes SW NC including Asheville, over half a foot of snow and still ripping at hr 39.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Need A nam mapSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Wait what is that map and where did it come from?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, odell.moton said: Need A nam map Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: 18Z NAM just crushes SW NC including Asheville, over half a foot of snow and still ripping at hr 39.. Snow line looks North! Yippee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Come on, NAM me! OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Wait what is that map and where did it come from?? You've been paranormal NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, griteater said: OK That looks great, but we start as rain and that rain snow line looks eerily similar to the Jan event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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