RevDodd Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 There's snow on Sunday morning ... just not enough to get up early to watch. And it looks like rain for all but the mountains with the second system. Unless, of course, the NAM can pull a rabbit out of its hat. And I can hear Rocky Squirrel now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Of course us RDU folks would like the 6z NAM. That model weakened the storm a little but expanded some higher amounts into the Triangle. Should be more accurate model runs today, as shortwave is already sampled! Hopefully we score a dusting on Sun morning! Hopefully there is a bust on the heavy side, like last nights tstorm bust!? According to KK on fox, the line was going to fall apart when it got here,and maybe a tumblr of thunder!??! Woke up to a severe storm with nickel sized hail! So she's going with flurries in mountains of the upstate, so we're looking good for Sunday, except for the 50s on Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Should be more accurate model runs today, as shortwave is already sampled! Hopefully we score a dusting on Sun morning! Hopefully there is a bust on the heavy side, like last nights tstorm bust!? According to KK on fox, the line was going to fall apart when it got here,and maybe a tumblr of thunder!??! Woke up to a severe storm with nickel sized hail! So she's going with flurries in mountains of the upstate, so we're looking good for Sunday, except for the 50s on Saturday! At this point I'm not even worried about ground temps. Just give me some snow falling from the sky and it'll be a win (after yesterdays model runs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The NAM is certainly holding its own. It hasn't really caved toward the other solutions yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Does anyone have any 6Z maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This storm is giving me anal glaucoma. I don't see my ass getting any major snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This storm is giving me anal glaucoma. I don't see my ass getting any major snow. Get your head out of it, you'll see better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Dont worry... if the bullseye is in the piedmont... then it will somehow by the grace of god end up an i-40 special... i mean i was sitting at 3 inches prior to the jan storm and somehow ended up getting 9 inches out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Get your head out of it, you'll see better! Indeed;! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 RAH this morning: The approach of mid-level wave will lead to weak sfc cyclogenesis along the leading edge of the Arctic airmass extending from the northern Gulf to the Southeast Coast. Recent 00z/10 NWP guidance indicates a pronounced southward shift in the track of the sfc low across the Deep South/Northern GOM, which the EC has steadily been depicting for a few days now. This has led to lower QPF amounts across the area, as the stronger southerly warm air advection gets suppressed south of the area Saturday night and through the day on Sunday. Mean liquid-equivalent from the entire event is now a few hundredths across the NE tier to around 0.20" of an inch in an arc from the Triad to the Sandhills and southern coastal plain. . . Therefore at this time, Saturday night and into Sunday is looking like a very marginal/low impact snow event for central NC, where the NW Piedmont/Triad could see 1 to 1.5 inches, with a dusting or less elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 So we're tracking a New England snowstorm now? Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Has the shortwave come ashore yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Dont worry... if the bullseye is in the piedmont... then it will somehow by the grace of god end up an i-40 special... i mean i was sitting at 3 inches prior to the jan storm and somehow ended up getting 9 inches out of it. Best snow pictures yet ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Has the shortwave come ashore yet? Does it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 CMC still looks interesting for my area this Tuesday. Then it continues to advertise something next Friday. For this run, SW mountains/Ne Ga to Columbia could be the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Does it matter? yes cause then the models can sample and get better reading as far as is it or not according to the maps its coming on shore now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 yes cause then the models can sample and get better reading as far as is it or not according to the maps its coming on shore now Yeah...I got all that. The question is: will it ultimately matter for us SE crew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yeah...I got all that. The question is: will it ultimately matter for us SE crew? time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 CMC still looks interesting for my area this Tuesday. Then it continues to advertise something next Friday. For this run, SW mountains/Ne Ga to Columbia could be the sweet spot. For Sunday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 time will tell I'm pretty sure it already has. I mean you could see that 1-1.5 go to a 2-3. Or accumulating snow spread east or south a few counties. But the overall picture for the Sunday event seems locked in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Has the shortwave come ashore yet? Yeah, that's why models got good yesterday , you get flurries, I jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Mackerel you're in simpsonville right Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Mackerel you're in simpsonville right Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yep, the NAM looks great, but I'm not sure if I jackpot, with 42 and snow! I don't see the cold being there, despite being NAM'd! I got 110:1 odds we hit mid 50s Saturday and never get below 45 Sat night, just how we roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: The NAM is certainly holding its own. It hasn't really caved toward the other solutions yet... NAM is still pretty good here. The NAM did the best with the Jan storm here. Of course, it was the one showing the least amount of snow. That seems to be the smart thing to do, go with the one that shows the least. But none of the models are consistently right when it comes to winter storms here and the amount of snow. There is just too much involved when it comes to getting snow here to depend on any of them to get it right consistently. The best thing to do is just look at them all, see all the possible outcomes they show, and then just wait and see what happens. But it is fun to see what could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 My current forecast, which I'm sure will change many many times in the next 2-3 days. And i get next to nothing in snow!!! Alan tweet this morning disagrees with this big time!!! He says much to do about nothing Sunday, and He's watching Monday/Tuesday... Me too watching it go up and blast the NE........................... SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain likely in the evening. Snow likely. Moderate snow accumulation possible. Lows in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow with a slight chance of rain in the morning...then mostly sunny with scattered sprinkles in the afternoon. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the lower 40s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. .MONDAY...A chance of snow in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs around 40. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of rain. A chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning...then becoming partly sunny. A chance of snow in the morning. A chance of rain showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Temperature falling into the lower 40s in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: My current forecast, which I'm sure will change many many times in the next 2-3 days. And i get next to nothing in snow!!! Alan tweet this morning disagrees with this big time!!! He says much to do about nothing Sunday, and He's watching Monday/Tuesday... Me too watching it go up and blast the NE........................... SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain likely in the evening. Snow likely. Moderate snow accumulation possible. Lows in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow with a slight chance of rain in the morning...then mostly sunny with scattered sprinkles in the afternoon. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the lower 40s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. .MONDAY...A chance of snow in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs around 40. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of rain. A chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning...then becoming partly sunny. A chance of snow in the morning. A chance of rain showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Temperature falling into the lower 40s in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yep, the NAM looks great, but I'm not sure if I jackpot, with 42 and snow! I don't see the cold being there, despite being NAM'd! I got 110:1 odds we hit mid 50s Saturday and never get below 45 Sat night, just how we roll Mack you need to tweet your weather thoughts, and get them out beyond American weather! Might get you a Purple tag some day... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: Mack you need to tweet your weather thoughts, and get them out beyond American weather! Might get you a Purple tag some day... lol I'm watching Tuesday as well! Can't wait to watch pictures from Central Park, with 2' of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: I'm watching Tuesday as well! Can't wait to watch pictures from Central Park, with 2' of snow! I hate to say it, but I'm in agreement with ya!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Mon/Tues doesn't look to bad for my area... would like to see a quicker phase with low a little bit further east... today's 12z suite will be either encouraging or depressing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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