mrdaddyman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 11:26 PM, Cold Rain said: So let me get this straight: The weak Sunday wave sets the table for the Tuesday Mid-Atlantic HECS, which drags down the cold air to set the table for the Friday SE BECS. That where we are now? Expand Sounds about right. We're always 7 - 10 days out from a fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauce-age Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looks like it's falling apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GEFS weaker on the weekend wave... bigger on the early week bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 11:58 PM, Wow said: GEFS weaker on the weekend wave... bigger on the early week bomb. Expand Whats the likely hood of this thing phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 12:00 AM, BornAgain13 said: Whats the likely hood of this thing phasing Expand It is, no doubt. Question is when and where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 12:03 AM, Wow said: It is, no doubt. Question is when and where. Expand Hmmmm... I wish the CMC had more support! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 12:06 AM, BornAgain13 said: Hmmmm... I wish the CMC had more support! Expand It's got some support from the Euro. It holds the southern wave back like the CMC, it's just not quite as strong to get a complete phase quick enough so ends up with a hybrid A/B system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 12:06 AM, BornAgain13 said: Hmmmm... I wish the CMC had more support! Expand It is not on an island, small differences at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Thanks guys!! The big difference with those 3 it seems is the cmc is much colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Hey Wow, what about the 18z NAVGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Don't have any NAVGEM snowmaps, but it looks really good for VA Piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The NAVGEM is VERY close to a CMC-like solution. It's doesn't quite get the southern wave to phase in the energy over the midwest and stays neutral/positive tilted. But it's got the energy over Texas at 48 hrs like the CMC. I like the trends here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 12:19 AM, Wow said: The NAVGEM is VERY close to a CMC-like solution. It's doesn't quite get the southern wave to phase in the energy over the midwest and stays neutral/positive tilted. Expand 0z should be interesting tonight!! Really enjoy your analysis Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 So do we need a fail boat thread for the Mon/Tues event? Since most of the discussion here has turned to those days!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 11:54 PM, sauce-age said: Looks like it's falling apart. Expand Like a 3 day old bratwurst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 12:19 AM, Wow said: The NAVGEM is VERY close to a CMC-like solution. It's doesn't quite get the southern wave to phase in the energy over the midwest and stays neutral/positive tilted. But it's got the energy over Texas at 48 hrs like the CMC. I like the trends here. Expand Would the trends be good for anyone in NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 12:47 AM, ajr said: Would the trends be good for anyone in NC? Expand If you live in or near the mountains, as usual. Otherwise you might as well get in Mack's Fail Boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Funny how 24 hours ago things looked so good for the Saturday night/Sunday storm. Shows how fast things can change whend it comes to winter storm threats here. I am glad I don't take this seriously and let it bother me. Now I can just laugh it off. Life goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauce-age Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 At least everyone isn't going to be staring up at the sky armed with a bowl and sweetened condensed milk...like my kids were in January. Easy come easy go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It's funny hearing people complain about model performance in a TRANSITION season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 wait, we are upset at low possibility of snow accums? its mid march, seeing a snow shower is a WIN. and wait until this time tomorrow when we get a properly sampled wave to see if the models still show the low qpf for nc. ill take plenty of cold and hoping for qpf over 1" of precip and praying a warm nose doesn't screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 9:15 PM, RevDodd said: OOC, did the Para-NAM keep up its weather porn status? Expand Yep: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 1:13 AM, mrdaddyman said: Yep: Expand What in the world.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Curious why the Para Nam would have so much more qpf than even the regular NAM... anyone able to see what it does at the 500mb level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'll give up on this system if it is showing the same (or worse) tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 1:18 AM, snowlover91 said: Curious why the Para Nam would have so much more qpf than even the regular NAM... anyone able to see what it does at the 500mb level? Expand Sorry, no 500MB maps available on WeatherBELL for this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 1:03 AM, DopplerWx said: wait, we are upset at low possibility of snow accums? its mid march, seeing a snow shower is a WIN. and wait until this time tomorrow when we get a properly sampled wave to see if the models still show the low qpf for nc. ill take plenty of cold and hoping for qpf over 1" of precip and praying a warm nose doesn't screw us. Expand Brick is shook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 1:18 AM, snowlover91 said: Curious why the Para Nam would have so much more qpf than even the regular NAM... anyone able to see what it does at the 500mb level? Expand The paranormal NAM just knows. It certainly did with the January storm. I have a feeling people are starting to jump ship too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Maybe the 0z Suite will bring us all back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 1:33 AM, Cold Rain said: The paranormal NAM just knows. It certainly did with the January storm. I have a feeling people are starting to jump ship too early. Expand Agreed...would be nice to see the NAM from that Jan storm to compare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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