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3/11-3/12 Winter Storm


BornAgain13

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3 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

2 things Mack:

1. Don't get suckered in. You know this has no chance for us Upstate peeps. Only twice in my life have we had accumulating snow this late, 83 and 93, and those are very rare exceptions. It's over for us. We'd need a couple hundred mile shift with deeper cold, but the NW trend is coming, never doubt it. Maybe if we were along I-40, I'd entertain some thoughts. 

2. What are you doing tracking another storm?

We're due!!!! :(

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really like to se the euro go further south, i know the cold push is strong but i have seen this movie before, it will tick north at least some and before (in jan) rdu was right above the rn/sn line and in the days leading up it crept north ever so slightly until the day of.  

put the snow line down at the sc border and show a suppressed look and ill take my chances. worst case scenario we get some snow showers in frigid temps while sc gets some decent accums.

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1 minute ago, DopplerWx said:

really like to se the euro go further south, i know the cold push is strong but i have seen this movie before, it will tick north at least some and before rdu was right above the rn/sn line and in the days leading up it crept north ever so slightly until the day of.  put the snow line down at the sc border and show a suppressed look and ill take my chances. worst case scenario we get some snow showers in frigid temps while sc gets some decent accums.

Really just need the h5 low a hair stronger and lot of this area could get a nice overrunning event.  With that kicker in the midwest it won't climb north.  But right now the Euro shows the day 4 event missing us south and the day 6 event missing us north.  Been par for the course the past decade+...what we should expect.

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_5.png

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Just now, packbacker said:

Really just need the h5 low a hair stronger and lot of this area could get a nice overrunning event.  With that kicker in the midwest it won't climb north.  But right now the Euro shows the day 4 event missing us south and the day 6 event missing us north.  Been par for the course the past decade+...what we should expect.

For day 6, Euro gives clarity to how we would likely miss out - that is, day 4 event sweeps through and clears things out behind it, then the diving northern stream becomes a late blooming coastal for the mid atlantic and/or NE.

For day 4, the trends have been positive in my mind.  We want to see a continued cold push (need the 50/50 low and S Canada sfc high combo to overperform with the cold), then a late sharpening of the wave to get good precip...but I agree, this 'could' be a nice overrunning event

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

The Euro and UKMet both track the wave farther southwest compared to the GFS, which is a better trajectory for both temperatures and precip as long as it sharpens a bit in the SE (like it does on the Euro)

Yep, the snow map above on the Euro looks really good.  Just a hair sharper/stronger....not a whole lot I would change being 4 days out except just need some luck.

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14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Look at that Burrell snow hole!!! I'm sitting pretty!

Yeah, pretty with that 1/10 of an inch! Don't worry Burell, you'll have some company in that hole though! 

Robert put his thoughts on his facebook page, basically looking at I-40 North, but KY, VA, WV with best shot. Only mention of AL, GA, SC is for warm temps and rain. Makes sense to me. 

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43 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

really like to se the euro go further south, i know the cold push is strong but i have seen this movie before, it will tick north at least some and before (in jan) rdu was right above the rn/sn line and in the days leading up it crept north ever so slightly until the day of.  

put the snow line down at the sc border and show a suppressed look and ill take my chances. worst case scenario we get some snow showers in frigid temps while sc gets some decent accums.

I agree. I like where I am sitting right now. You know 99% of the time it's going to start coming back NW. We have seen it time and time again with threats. And then the jackpot ends up being a tad NW of what the models show right before it starts. 

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As always.... boundary temps look to be an issue here even if we get the weaker south solution with cold 850's. wedge winds don't look to show up until after the precipitation is over.  We would need that southern track and for it to be a little slower to allow the high to shift east. As it stands now I'm seeing a nice 36 degree white rain event here as a best case scenario;however I fully expect the usual more amped north trends to show later on. I would be more concerned about that in Raleigh than getting missed to the south 

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7 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

Lol at the EFS trying to put down a little bit of snow here. That being said, if the snow is not moderate to heavy, sun angle is going to kill a lot of folks.

 

I'm wondering what the ground temps will be during this time frame. It's been warm for a long time. It would take some good rates to cool things down for a significant accumulation I would think...

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