jburns Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Saturday I can see some pointless snow in the Piedmont. Not much dynamics so flakes will "float" down onto warm ground and melt. After about 1 hour flakes will "float" down onto cool wet ground and melt. Someone will report that for the past hour it has been "pouring" snow with flakes the size of "manhole covers". When asked how much they have, will reply, "There's a bit of slush on some car roofs." And then it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 That sounds great to me. I'd love to watch it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Sref up to 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 If you want a good storm, better hope the Canadian is onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 SREF for RDU mean is at 2". The usual spread though from almost zilch to multiple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 23 minutes ago, packbacker said: Would love to have a model run with the GFS and it's handling of the NS energy and the Euro/CMC with the stronger southern piece. Need the southern pieces stronger...if we are going to see snow. All you need is the NAM Pack (well, the 12z run anyway). All this other HECS stuff is fools gold for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, jburns said: Saturday I can see some pointless snow in the Piedmont. Not much dynamics so flakes will "float" down onto warm ground and melt. After about 1 hour flakes will "float" down onto cool wet ground and melt. Someone will report that for the past hour it has been "pouring" snow with flakes the size of "manhole covers". When asked how much they have, will reply, "There's a bit of slush on some car roofs." And then it's over. Omg you have me laughing hysterically. Thank you for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 SREF for FAY (well Fort Bragg) is about 2 inches. Honestly I'm surprised it's that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GSP Disco The main order of business will be the winter weather potential over the weekend. A mid-level impulse will dive southeast through the central plains on Saturday and sharpen up over the MS Valley Saturday night. Meanwhile, a 1048 mb arctic high center pushing south across Saskatchewan Friday night into Saturday will send very chilly thicknesses settling southward across our forecast area. The nose of this sprawling high pressure system will be in place on Saturday and increasing clouds from the west will keep temperatures on the chilly side. A developing surface reflection should then move from the Gulf Coast to the southeast coastline through late weekend. Ahead of the approaching upper support, a 140 kt upper jetlet passing north of the region through the Mid-Atlantic area will bring strong right entrance region upper divergence through our forecast area. The peak of the deep layer QG forcing and deeper moisture will cross the area overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. In addition, moist low level upglide into the cold airmass will ramp up Saturday evening and maximize around 09Z Sunday. Model profiles for the main event are spread into warmer (ECM/Canadian) and cooler (GFS/NAM) camps. The GEFS and SREF are not especially supportive of the very cold/wet solutions so uncertainty remains high. The one point of consistency is that none of the models exhibit any degree of warm nosing in profiles, and the ptype forecast will be predicated on how deep the surface based warm layer remains. It still appears as if the NC/SC border is generally where the rain/snow line will set up, and any heavier banded precipitation toward daybreak Sunday could push snow showers briefly southward to produce light snow accums on otherwise warm ground. All told, it remains too early for watch products and the HWO mention will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 18z NAM so far trending a bit stronger with the PNA ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Wow said: 18z NAM so far trending a bit stronger with the PNA ridge Moisture looks to be moving into TN faster this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: 18z NAM so far trending a bit stronger with the PNA ridge I was wondering what time we get NAM'd again!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 NAM is going to hold with another good run TN>NC....probably parts of N SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7AM and 10AM Sunday...the church canceler (as WeatherNC says) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: NAM is going to hold with another good run TN>NC....probably parts of N SC Yep, some foot totals showing up in the mountains at hour 66. Still snowing across NC so lets see what it does eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: 7AM and 10AM Sunday...the church canceler (as WeatherNC says) God, please let NAM be right, once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Here's the snow depth for what should be the "ground truth." Respectable, and not too out of line with some other predictions. Looks like 3 inches outside the mountains will be the high water mark: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 ill take that nam run any day gives me over 10 inches in east tn and hits you all to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: 7AM and 10AM Sunday...the church canceler (as WeatherNC says) Ummmmmmm.... anybody see a problem here????? The 540 thickness line, is welllll N of the actual snow line!!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Here's the snow depth for what should be the "ground truth." Respectable, and not too out of line with some other predictions. Looks like 3 inches outside the mountains will be the high water mark: But here's the eye candy 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Haven't been following this system. Any chance it turns out like the January storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, bargainmusic said: Haven't been following this system. Any chance it turns out like the January storm? Only 98% or so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, bargainmusic said: Haven't been following this system. Any chance it turns out like the January storm? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Here's the snow depth for what should be the "ground truth." Respectable, and not too out of line with some other predictions. Looks like 3 inches outside the mountains will be the high water mark: That little dip-down in Wake Co. is over Packbacker's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2/11/14 overrunning is looking like a good analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Ummmmmmm.... anybody see a problem here????? The 540 thickness line, is welllll N of the actual snow line!!? 543 is usually a better ballpark in our area in my experience....soundings are best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Anybody notice that L left behind in the western GULF late in the 18z NAM run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Difference between 2/14 for the follow up coastal is there was spacing between the coastal and the NS energy which left just enough cold air. So far the models aren't showing the spacing and it's killing our chances of seeing snow from the coastal, outside of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 And the cool thing is, the shortwave only trends stronger and the the precip shield only becomes more expansive from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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