SteveVa Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I don't buy the squashed GFS version. Remember how we all (most of the board) dismissed NAM as being too amped back in Jan and it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: This is reminding me of the Feb 2014 where the weak overrunning wave was in southern NC into SC and then the follow up coastal. The CMC just goes nuts over the piedmont into the MA....still going after this panel too. Apparently we have a lot to sort out, lol. UKMet kind of looks like this too...hard to tell on the specifics though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Love the GEM and Ukie. Heck nam not to shabby. Still not strike 3 yet for my big dog swing at the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Apparently we have a lot to sort out, lol. UKMet kind of looks like this too...hard to tell on the specifics though LOL...yep. This is kind of a bummer, I just want a simple weak wave with overrunning, 2-4" deal. These big coastals never work out for RDU, though being further west like CLT would do better. But, if the alternative is seeing lots of folks get plastered even if it was a cold rain for RDU then that's not to bad. Starting to get aggravated there is even something to track, I hadn't looked at models in a couple of weeks and was loving the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: LOL...yep. This is kind of a bummer, I just want a simple weak wave with overrunning, 2-4" deal. These big coastals never work out for RDU, though being further west like CLT would do better. But, if the alternative is seeing lots of folks get plastered even if it was a cold rain for RDU then that's not to bad. Starting to get aggravated there is even something to track, I hadn't looked at models in a couple of weeks and was loving the warmth. What's aggravating is us dropping our subscriptions and now scratching and clawing various sites for model output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 My inclination is to go with gfs/euro at this range as well but the nam swept the leg last time so not ready to dismiss it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Dat bomb on the Canadian, tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: What's aggravating is us dropping our subscriptions and now scratching and clawing various sites for model output I'm just thankful this is coming in before we gain an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: I'm just thankful this is coming in before we gain an hour. Truth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: This is reminding me of the Feb 2014 where the weak overrunning wave was in southern NC into SC and then the follow up coastal. The CMC just goes nuts over the piedmont into the MA....still going after this panel too. Is this for the Sat/Sun storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The only thing not to like about the canadian is the worst comes through mid day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Love the GEM and Ukie. Heck nam not to shabby. Still not strike 3 yet for my big dog swing at the fence. Yeah at this point you just gotta hope the NAM scores a win like it did back in Jan, it pretty much had it locked in by 72 hrs and never really wavered from there on in and it was close to perfect on how it played out....of course since the NAM is good for us here in the east it wont work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: What's aggravating is us dropping our subscriptions and now scratching and clawing various sites for model output LOL...yep. The GEM sure is eye candy...this looks to be a triple phaser. If the NS energy would just drop a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12z DWD ICON is chilly but weak with the wave and precip...thru hr78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Is this for the Sat/Sun storm ? GEM has light flurries for Sun deal but then this big bomb on Mon-Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 My God the GEM destroys my area with 14-16 inches of snow and high winds with the monster coastal low it develops.. First wave is almost non existent.. The Euro will be interesting to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: GEM has light flurries for Sun deal but then this big bomb on Mon-Tues. Lol! I wish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Thing to remember also if I'm not mistaken the wave that's going to be affecting us this weekend won't even be fully sampled until probably sometime tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS does hint at what the CMC shows, the SS energy is much further south/weaker. GFS bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 Can't jump on that run of the Canadian... would love for it to verify, but no support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: GEM has light flurries for Sun deal but then this big bomb on Mon-Tues. ok it just confused me since it was posted in the March 11-12 storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 Anybody think UK agrees with CMC on Monday/Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Anybody think UK agrees with CMC on Monday/Tuesday? Yes, with the overall setup. GFS wasn't that far off either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 WPC sums it up best...let's see what tomorrow shows. WEAKENING SYSTEM REACHING THE WA COAST BY 10/1200Z RAPIDLY DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY AND CAROLINAS LATE SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH 11/00Z 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE PRIOR TO 11/00Z SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WV MOSAIC SHOWS A FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM NEARING THE WEST COAST THOUGH INDICATING THE STRONG SHEARING FORCES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNDER INFLUENCE OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAM REACHING THE APEX OF THE GLOBAL RIDGE LOCKED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LANDFALL OF THE SFC WAVE INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO PROVIDE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN SUPPORTING A GENERAL MODEL BLEND PRIOR TO 11/00Z. HOWEVER...AS THE WAVE OVER-TOPS THE MEAN RIDGE INTO TIGHT/STRONG NW FLOW MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DUE TO SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENTERING THIS FLOW...CREATING A HIGHLY SENSITIVE TIME STEP TOWARD DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION. ENSEMBLE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER/PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH EVENTUAL INCREASED PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE GULF COAST SAT INTO SUN INTIMATELY TYING THE TWO WAVES SUN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z UKMET CONTINUES TO BE A BIT DEEPER AND ELONGATED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY SLOWS IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...WHICH SEEMS OUT OF PLACE. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH ENTER THE NORTHWEST FLOW A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC AND THIS CONTINUES TO COMPOUND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THAN THE GFS AFTER CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND SLOWS WITH INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE 00Z ECMWF IS GENERALLY FLAT IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A BIT LESS PHASING FAVORING A MORE CONVECTIVE INFLUENCED SOUTHERN STREAM...INCREASING THE POSITIVE TILT ACROSS THE GULF COAST...THIS WEAKENS THE SOLUTION IN THE NORTHERN PORTION CROSSING THE CAROLINAS. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS GOOD TIMING AND FAIRLY AGREEABLE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CONVECTIVE SOLUTION THE ECMWF PRESENTS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...LEADING TO A QUICK TRANSITION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. GEFS SUPPORTS THE GFS...AND ECENS MEAN FAVORS THE ECMWF UNSURPRISINGLY BUT OVERALL ARE QUITE AMENABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/SOUTHEAST. AS SUCH A 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND IS PREFERRED THOUGH GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AND HIGH SENSITIVITY AFTER 11/00Z TO THE TIMING/SHAPE...CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AFTER 11/00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 From Robert!! 4 For 4. Not the Wendy's deal. Snow may fall in 4 states, 4 consecutive days #kywx #tnwx #ncwx #vawx Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The U.K., GEM and EC all have the SLP parked south of Pensacola 0z Monday, alarm bells are sounding around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: The U.K., GEM and EC all have the SLP parked south of Pensacola 0z Monday, alarm bells are sounding around here. Good alarm? Or rain alarms?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Good alarm? Or rain alarms?? Liquid air raid sirens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Liquid air raid sirens Well, Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GEFS still has nice overrunning on Sunday and the day 4-5 coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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