franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Early, but I don't think the GFS is going to climb north this run either....out to hr48 Looks slightly colder than the nam at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Early, but I don't think the GFS is going to climb north this run either....out to hr48 Looks weaker at hour 48, but that can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looking good and strong at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Dewpoints are plenty low (and trending colder) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looking at the GFS this morning it's coming down then starting to retreat. Starting at hour 60 you have a 1044 in the Dakotas...you end up with a 1036 sliding further towards the GL then it retreats right as the storm is coming in. That's what is helping drive the cold air in. Euro has it retreat which ends up making it dud along with a few other things. Given climo I would think you need a 1040 and have it locked in for the duration. I've been out of the game though so I'm probably wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, burgertime said: Hmm hard for me to get excited about this one and that's not because of being half way around the globe. These things are hard enough to score good on in the heart of winter. My concern is how fast the high will retreat. Just seems a bit sketchy to me. Wouldn't be surprised if this ends up a very cold rain especially in the CLT region. Yeah my money is kinda on white rain at the moment. We'll see, going to need very good rates to pile stuff up with all the factors working against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Gfs coming in colder similar to the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I just saw an article on The State newspaper website, out of Columbia, about their possibility of seeing a wintry mix this weekend. Columbians even getting on board here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: Gfs coming in colder similar to the nam. Yep, the upstate of SC looks to be in a good spot on this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: Gfs coming in colder similar to the nam. Looks a little colder and a little weaker...but this is the winning formula for a lot of NC...keep it cold, then strengthen the wave and precip last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS Sunday at 7AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Looks a little colder and a little weaker...but this is the winning formula for a lot of NC...keep it cold, then strengthen the wave and precip last minute I agree. Fine line to walk with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Looks a little colder and a little weaker...but this is the winning formula for a lot of NC...keep it cold, then strengthen the wave and precip last minute I don't like that those retreating 2m temps.....This looks a bit more realistic though widespread 2-4 probably around 2 inches due to melting etc..gotta see what the euro says. Good seeing the 540 line deep into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Colder and weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 After hr66, you can see the GFS crush the wave as it digs into the Tennessee....NAM doesn't do this and I feel it's more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 The GFS is just ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I think the kicker wave coming in stronger is weakening our weekend wave. Need to watch the strength of that wave on following runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Models should hold the wave a little stronger, longer as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Rather swing for the fence: This will end up being a trash can lid topper and thats it. I say winde it up and take a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Actually, looks like the GGEM brings the gulf low out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Man, I know that we all should have paid attention to the 72 hour NAM instead of the 72 hour GFS in January, but it still feels sketchy to do it now. Also, love the twitter shaped snow hole in eastern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 And the GGEM has a big coastal day 4, crushes Franklin and friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS Snow Map trends....last 6 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS Snow Map trends....last 6 runs And plenty more flip flopping to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 That ain't flip flopping. That's a colder, weaker trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 We finally get the blocking to trend stronger and it crushes our wave...LOL. I will throw in the towel tomorrow afternoon if this doesn't come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just remember, in January the GFS led the way at around day 5, then was out to lunch with a suppressed system until something like 36 hours out (if memory serves correct). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: We finally get the blocking to trend stronger and it crushes our wave...LOL. I will throw in the towel tomorrow afternoon if this doesn't come back. This. Also want to see what the NAM continues to show or whether caves to gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 This is reminding me of the Feb 2014 where the weak overrunning wave was in southern NC into SC and then the follow up coastal. The CMC just goes nuts over the piedmont into the MA....still going after this panel too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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