mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: ^that sounds like it was written by packgrad and Snowless in Carrollton. Lol! And a splash of Rain_Cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Can't wait to track the Tuesday event while watching rain fall Sat night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 39 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: It's cold and shows decent CAD wedging and good qpf. Probably comparable to CMC but a good deal colder. Sweet! Maybe it can dethrone the ICON and bring back its glory from a couple of years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6z GFS temps early Saturday morning (at 12z). This would be very beneficial for the next day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: 6z GFS temps early Saturday morning (at 12z). This would be very beneficial for the next day storm. Until the sun breaks out and everybody skyrockets to the 50s! That March sun angle , yo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Until the sun breaks out and everybody skyrockets to the 50s! That March sun angle , yo! Mack, you're absolutely right. There's a lot of things to overcome in order to get a decent storm. I think the biggest thing to hope for, with this storm, is to achieve high enough precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Love the runs overnight. Great trends. The big thing is all the models are showing at least a decent event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, MillerA said: GFS bumped up totals, too. We'll see which way they go today. Could see some flip flopping from the three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Love the runs overnight. Great trends. The big thing is all the models are showing at least a decent event here. Except the Euro! That should be a concern!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Except the Euro! That should be a concern!? Nope. As long as they are showing a storm. The totals almost always flip flop back and forth. Just have to see if they come to a concensus as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The usually warm JMA has very cold 850's on Sunday compared to other modeling. Would be a nice snow storm in the upstate if correct. DWD-icon is a crush for the upstate as well with surface temps at 31/32 Sunday morning and 850's around -3, with significant precip. Also a good sign that the hi-res NAM has rapidly cooling boundary layer temps Sunday morning supportive of a possible change-over to snow in the upstate. FWIW, both the JMA and DWD-icon has the 850 line south of Columbia, SC at 7am Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: The usually warm JMA has very cold 850's on Sunday compared to other modeling. Would be a nice snow storm in the upstate if correct. DWD-icon is a crush for the upstate as well with surface temps at 31/32 Sunday morning and 850's around -3, with significant precip. Also a good sign that the hi-res NAM has rapidly cooling boundary layer temps Sunday morning supportive of a possible change-over to snow in the upstate. That sounds good! Gonna bring back up Cold_Pains concern; that high pressure!? A few days ago, we were seeing wedge signatures and things were looking ok, now the high is in central Canada and somehow going to ridge down over the mountains?? Just not sure this will pan out for the upstate, but seeing flurries mixed with rain, would be a victory in March and as much as I saw in the January blizzard of Oz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: That sounds good! Gonna bring back up Cold_Pains concern; that high pressure!? A few days ago, we were seeing wedge signatures and things were looking ok, now the high is in central Canada and somehow going to ridge down over the mountains?? Just not sure this will pan out for the upstate, but seeing flurries mixed with rain, would be a victory in March and as much as I saw in the January blizzard of Oz! I'm not getting my hopes up. 95% of the time the 800 to 850 0 degree isotherm makes it 25 to 30 miles further north than any model shows. I don't expect an exception here, but we're far enough out that if we can get a model consensus of the 0 degree line going from athens, GA to Columbia, SC, we might stand a chance at some flakes. lol I will chase this storm at my in-law's mountain house on the NC/SC border if it looks like a hit there, so that's all I'm asking for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That sounds good! Gonna bring back up Cold_Pains concern; that high pressure!? A few days ago, we were seeing wedge signatures and things were looking ok, now the high is in central Canada and somehow going to ridge down over the mountains?? Just not sure this will pan out for the upstate, but seeing flurries mixed with rain, would be a victory in March and as much as I saw in the January blizzard of Oz! We're going to have to rely on your favorite....dynamic cooling! High pressure placement and strength is always overdone in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 burrel - I liked the colder temps on the ICON and JMA, but they both look weak on the wave / light on precip. I'm fine with that (better than amped and warm)...but just wanted to mention it. Keep the model runs colder, and amp the wave a little close to go time is the winning formula for upstate through southern 1/2 of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 i know it has been said, but the record warm ssts concern me if we do get it deepening off the coast, could very easily result in the warm nose being more stout than advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 B -rad, out of CLT , said 0% chance of 3" and 0% chance of 4", and 10% chance of 2" , for CLT !!? Sounds promising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: B -rad, out of CLT , said 0% chance of 3" and 0% chance of 4", and 10% chance of 2" , for CLT !!? Sounds promising! He didn't say anything about 6+". So you're telling me there's a chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 hour ago, griteater said: WPC with a "Heavy Snow Possible" area in W NC / E TN on their map for Day 3 (late Saturday) WPC from NOAA showing Heavy Snow for WNC and E. Tenn. for late Saturday night, day 3. Would like to see a little more before Spring sets in, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 DWD has RDU below freezing when precipitation starts at ~4AM Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: i know it has been said, but the record warm ssts concern me if we do get it deepening off the coast, could very easily result in the warm nose being more stout than advertised. Who knows how things change from here, but right now, this is a modest system with precip primarily driven by warm advection (overrunning) with some upper jet support (divergence). I think the bigger temp concern is getting a cold enough pre-storm air mass in place as opposed to a big warm surge aloft. Don't think we will see a substantially deepening sfc low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, fritschy said: WPC from NOAA showing Heavy Snow for WNC and E. Tenn. for late Saturday night, day 3. Would like to see a little more before Spring sets in, That map is amazeballs!! I'm never in the anything snowy hatched area, so giddy up! NAM be rollin, hopefully not right off the tracks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: He didn't say anything about 6+". So you're telling me there's a chance! Oh yeah, I forgot, -25% chance of 6" plus! Our locals going with flurries mixed with rain, so B Rad, seems ballsy, by comparison !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Don't think the 12z NAM is going to be north, but it may be weaker...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looks like the cold air up north is digging in very slightly more through hr45. Drier too with single digit dew points almost hitting the NC/VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, griteater said: Don't think the 12z NAM is going to be north, but it may be weaker...we'll see Looks slightly weaker but a hair colder at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 at hour 66 the snow lines punches southward into far north Mississippi and Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 NAM run is pretty sweet for folks on the southern edge...a little colder and not really weaker with precip at first glance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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