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3/11-3/12 Winter Storm


BornAgain13

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  On 3/11/2017 at 2:27 PM, packbacker said:

Geez...ColdRain can smell the 2-3" band on the 4km NAM. 

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What's interesting is the heavy band of snow in TN appears to be setting up a good deal north of where models had it. In fact there are places forecast by all 06z models to see nothing or a trace that have snow covered grounds. Interesting. 

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  On 3/11/2017 at 2:30 PM, snowlover91 said:

What's interesting is the heavy band of snow in TN appears to be setting up a good deal north of where models had it. In fact there are places forecast by all 06z models to see nothing or a trace that have snow covered grounds. Interesting. 

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Noticed this too.  Looks like that main band will go north of MBY, and will affect the upstate totals-we'll see

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  On 3/11/2017 at 2:40 PM, griteater said:

Yeah NAM 4km was an improved run for S mtns, N Upstate, S Foothills and S Piedmont

Regular NAM was kind of meh

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At this point not sure how much we can trust the output of the models since their quite different on the N extent and in Tennessee places forecast to see flurries at best have a white ground. 

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  On 3/11/2017 at 2:42 PM, snowlover91 said:
At this point not sure how much we can trust the output of the models since their quite different on the N extent and in Tennessee places forecast to see flurries at best have a white ground. 


Yeah just following the trends. A late ramp up on the models is better than the alternative.

Seems like the southern plains into the TN and MS Valley get cases where they have surprises with precip over performance. I swear that hardly ever seems to happen in this area with winter weather. Hope I'm wrong though
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  On 3/11/2017 at 2:27 PM, packbacker said:

Geez...ColdRain can smell the 2-3" band on the 4km NAM. 

Expand  

 

  On 3/11/2017 at 2:30 PM, snowlover91 said:

What's interesting is the heavy band of snow in TN appears to be setting up a good deal north of where models had it. In fact there are places forecast by all 06z models to see nothing or a trace that have snow covered grounds. Interesting. 

Expand  

And when it's all said and done, it'll probably end up further NW than what the models showed as usual.

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