SouthCoastMA Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Rgem looks solid. I lke the inv trough it was setting up at hr 48. The RGEM snow maps have 6-9" over SEMASS and Cape. Probably the wettest model run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 RGEM is slowing down and allowing just a bit of inflow. We'll see if other guidance can get there. Euro was actually kind of similar at 12z...didn't have the QPF, but the slow development and it actually put a pretty nice bullseye of ML fronto well into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2-4/5 looks good with more around the south coast. The Cape may have issues with bl making accumulating difficult. I have to go to Providence for a noon meeting. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 RGEM was definitely a bit slower evolution and wetter in the southern zones. May have been a touch south and a bit less generous with the QPF in the lower Pioneer Valley down into far N Central, NW CT but pretty good overall. I'll take 2" here in the valley and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS way north vs 18z. She's a comin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: GFS way north vs 18z. She's a comin' NYC crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: GFS way north vs 18z. She's a comin' Slower too..that's the trend this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The 0.5 qpf line is up to Scooters house. 0.25 to the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS is really bad sometimes. This had bomb scenario written all over it from the synoptics and all european guidance for my neck of the woods. I guess it's good that the gfs figures it out 48 hours in advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Slower too..that's the trend this evening. I'm seeing pretty significant changes at H500--deeper trough, better downstream ridging--but not much difference in SLP track/intensity. And the Jet streak at hr 36 has come way north--probably more than 50 miles, but our SLP is virtually at the same position/intensity versus 18z at hr 36. I have to think the SLP track should correct north/deeper based on that UL depiction. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The whole thing is tilted which is why the low is so far south. The moisture is basically forcing from frontogensis...not from strong low level inflow or a TROWAL but as we saw tonight, it's slowing slam with a sharper trough. Probably a red flag that the moisture itself comes a bit more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 lol, crushed here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 27 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: GFS is really bad sometimes. This had bomb scenario written all over it from the synoptics and all european guidance for my neck of the woods. I guess it's good that the gfs figures it out 48 hours in advance? The GFS has had a really bad winter. It's had some remarkably bad 24 hour forecasts. The southern US storm in early January it had 6 inches of snow for places almost all models showed freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 25 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I'm seeing pretty significant changes at H500--deeper trough, better downstream ridging--but not much difference in SLP track/intensity. And the Jet streak at hr 36 has come way north--probably more than 50 miles, but our SLP is virtually at the same position/intensity versus 18z at hr 36. I have to think the SLP track should correct north/deeper based on that UL depiction. Thoughts? If we keep seeing this slower trend, then yeah, I'd expect this to come north. It still may correct north a bit even if it holds status quo simply if vortmax ends up slightly more potent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The whole thing is tilted which is why the low is so far south. The moisture is basically forcing from frontogensis...not from strong low level inflow or a TROWAL but as we saw tonight, it's slowing slam with a sharper trough. Probably a red flag that the moisture itself comes a bit more north. Thanks. That's a good way to look at it, "tilted". I didn't quite see it that way til you pointed it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Starting to feel more confident for at least light accumulation here. 1" would be gratifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 New Euro much more robust across SNE. General 4-6 inches across CT with 7-8 inch amounts across S RI and far SE MA. Most of MA south of I-90 is in the 3-4 inch range. 2-inch amounts make it all the way to far southern VT/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Lol wtf euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Get the warnings up to the Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Advisory for 3 to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Advisory for 3 to 5 lolol, nail biter 3 miles north of the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I like 4-6" to the Pike with narrow band of 7-8" somewhere thru CT / RI. Not the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Raise it, make it double. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 Euro comes in zonked and then all the 06z guidance comes in more suppressed including RGEM. Guidance has been pretty terrible maintaining consistency in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Quote For CT Im thinking 2-3 here near the MA border, 2 codfish, 3-4 for HFD-TOl, 3-6 with loli's to 7 in southern 4 counties of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6z GFS, GEFS and RGEM was a bit of a caution flag near and north of the Pike. Hopefully just a wobble on the off runs but the northern edge could be correct another hair south or bump back north we'll have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It's such a narrow stripe of heavier snow. 30 miles makes such a difference. Unless, of course, it decides to go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I'm expecting 1-3" in Southie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It just bothers me that it seems like synoptics argue north, but all the models are south of where you envision the QPF. Clearly they all see something..and sometimes it's not worth complicating the forecast by tearing your hair out over it...but I just feel like this has decent bust potential on the good side in areas near the pike. I guess we'll see how 12z trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I like 4-6" to the Pike with narrow band of 7-8" somewhere thru CT / RI. Not the Cape The cape may get inv trough action. That's a wild card...even perhaps BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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