CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: Rgem continues to tick warmer at the surface. White rain to Laconia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That's an odd most likely snowfall map given that the watch is mostly east of where they have the heaviest snowfall. It was in the wording of the watch..not sure what the map shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Winter Storm Watch for the potential for 4-7" Cape and Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: It was in the wording of the watch..not sure what the map shows It's still a weird most likely map, given that they think 4-7" falls in the watch area. EWB is forecast for 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: White rain to Laconia? Trend aside-- you have no concerns regarding that SLP near NYS/Canadian border and easterly fetch off the Atlantic? I lived on LI most of my life and have seen a lot of snow fall--even with good rates--only to accumulate immediately in puddles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Cup Trend aside-- you have no concerns regarding that SLP near NYS/Canadian border and easterly fetch off the Atlantic? I lived on LI most of my life and have seen a lot of snow fall--even with good rates--only to accumulate immediately in puddles. My only concern is much further north track and onset of precip. I didn't see crazy onshore flow and those temps aloft get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Trend aside-- you have no concerns regarding that SLP near NYS/Canadian border and easterly fetch off the Atlantic? I lived on LI most of my life and have seen a lot of snow fall--even with good rates--only to accumulate immediately in puddles. Glad we don't live there Pope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Sort of a dumb question on my part but just want to clarify for myself. When looking at the inflow aspect for Friday are you looking at sfc winds or like 925/850 winds and are you looking for some sort of easterly component to the winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Forecast looks good down this way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I think I saw this mentioned but it seems very strange the degree of displacement between the surface low and upper levels. That trough axis is still quite far west while the surface low is pretty damn east...suppose it could happen but definitely have to watch out b/c if that amplifying trough captures the surface low early enough we could be looking at near borderline warning criteria snows into CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Glad we don't live there Pope You really shouldn't keep taunting him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 We always joke about north of the pike events, and this is a textbook south of the pike event as modeled. West to east movement, parallel to I-90. The interstate itself may have some nice north wind dry air virga while where it's saturated it's coming down steadily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: You really shouldn't keep taunting him. I haven't been . I asked a question and got attacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 There really could be a rather narrow strip of like 6-8' of snow somewhere in southern CT. There should be a band of rather intense lifting which gives a narrow area of like near 2''/hr rates for a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 20 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We always joke about north of the pike events, and this is a textbook south of the pike event as modeled. West to east movement, parallel to I-90. The interstate itself may have some nice north wind dry air virga while where it's saturated it's coming down steadily. Kind of like my position although work should be ideal far enough off the sound. Happy to have the day off though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We always joke about north of the pike events, and this is a textbook south of the pike event as modeled. West to east movement, parallel to I-90. The interstate itself may have some nice north wind dry air virga while where it's saturated it's coming down steadily. There's probably just as many south of the pike events. Especially early and later in season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Kind of like my position although work should be ideal far enough off the sound. Happy to have the day off though. The more I look at it, I think your spot is the ideal location right now. Right along the fronto zone. I'm interested in the dry air to the north of Kev. But he's still getting a solid covering for the cold snap. The northern extent will be sharp it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 55 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Forecast looks good down this way.... Still thinking 3-5" through CCT but semantics at this point. Though I do like the look on rgem, slower and bends back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The more I look at it, I think your spot is the ideal location right now. Right along the fronto zone. I'm interested in the dry air to the north of Kev. But he's still getting a solid covering for the cold snap. The northern extent will be sharp it seems. Yeah. He will be doing naked snow angels there. I'm thinking just mood flakes here...which I'm ok with as we drive to VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 46 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The more I look at it, I think your spot is the ideal location right now. Right along the fronto zone. I'm interested in the dry air to the north of Kev. But he's still getting a solid covering for the cold snap. The northern extent will be sharp it seems. He has had some nice late season events the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 This one could be better for James than Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 21 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: This one could be better for James than Tuesday. We all hope that happens, not for his downfall but for us back west and north. When CC rains in a biggie, climo has returned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Only out to hr 15 but can already tell Nam going to be north of its 18z run--probably more than a tick--based on the orientation and strength of the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Obv north, nobody believed the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Only out to hr 15 but can already tell Nam going to be north of its 18z run--probably more than a tick--based on the orientation and strength of the ULL. Yeah well north through 27 hours...inconsistent is an understatement for the NAM in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Nam being Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah well north through 27 hours...inconsistent is an understatement for the NAM in this event. IF, big IF, we get tue inside 84hrs, lol at all the high fives and bridge jumping that will ensue 4x a day with the first model to run esp in the southern bordering subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: IF, big IF, we get tue inside 84hrs, lol at all the high fives and bridge jumping that will ensue 4x a day with the first model to run esp in the southern bordering subforum. The NAM should really just be treated as a slightly higher skilled SREF member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I went 2-4" lollies to 5" for the southern half of CT and 1-3" north. Was a little concerned about dry air on the northern fringe and that things may shift back south a bit so decided to go a little low north for now, but after seeing the NAM cave, I'm leaning towards 2-4" statewide pending the rest of the overnight runs remaining relatively consistent. Regionwide, I'd go 2-4" lollies to 5" BDL-PVD-PYM ish and south, 1-3" pike south including BOS, c-2" north of there. Someone probably pulls a 6" spot by getting in some solid rates for an hour or two, if I had to guess, I'd either go with SWCT or near Steve's area over to PYM or so, but it's a bit of dumb luck that determines where the banding forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Rgem looks solid. I lke the inv trough it was setting up at hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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