Baroclinic Zone Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 NAM looks like a reasonable solution now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: There's probably a NAM somewhere out there that crushes me Pick a NAM..any NAM. Sideways, parallel....I hear the upside down NAM crushes RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Pick a NAM..any NAM. Sideways, parallel....I hear the upside down NAM crushes RDU. Enjoy the 6" the para gives you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 How much rain do we think ORH gets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How much rain do we think ORH gets? About 50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Man, that is almost a perfect vort track. If any inflow gets going, then it could produce surprisingly heavy snow...but we're fighting the flat orientation just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 RPM has the 2" line around the pike, 1" line around Rt 2....and a stripe of 4-5" from just south of PVD to MMK-OXC-DXR and southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How much rain do we think ORH gets? Rain? Or wet? --as in a slop mix? What are you doing posting about a storm that was "going to be shredded into non-existence"? And in case you haven't realized, we are still 48 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Nice look back this way. Snowy Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I don't know if it's old age or the beautiful 70 degree days we have a few weeks ago but I'm done with winter. The threat of snow and these freezing cold temps are not appealing to me, let Spring spring is where I am at right now! The temps this weekend are beyond depressing... That run in early mid feb of snow was enough to fill my snow appetite for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 12z RGEM gets the 5mm line up to the northern MA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 RGEM looks well north of 06z through 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Rain? Or wet? --as in a slop mix? What are you doing posting about a storm that was "going to be shredded into non-existence"? And in case you haven't realized, we are still 48 hrs out. Whoa!! Why the violent attack Pope? I was posting a question to see what thoughts were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bruinsyear said: I don't know if it's old age or the beautiful 70 degree days we have a few weeks ago but I'm done with winter. The threat of snow and these freezing cold temps are not appealing to me, let Spring spring is where I am at right now! The temps this weekend are beyond depressing... That run in early mid feb of snow was enough to fill my snow appetite for the season. Thanks for your clipper analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice look back this way. Snowy Fri. It has been looking pretty good now for a good 24 hrs in this area...I am still waiting for the rug to get pulled out at the last minute though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RPM has the 2" line around the pike, 1" line around Rt 2....and a stripe of 4-5" from just south of PVD to MMK-OXC-DXR and southward. I'd go with that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Not that anyone asks... but part of me thinks (for snow enthusiasts) it is better (for now) that at 48 + hours it runs .5" QPF to NYC and keeps things dry up this way... Just my experience, one of two things happens when that model goes from 60 hours to 36: it goes N; it goes S. I have seen so many .5" FRH gridded values in LGA, where BOS was < .1" end up more uniform between the two, than the other way around. Having said that, I have seen walled off snow bands slam shut at HFD before, too. But that result is ...uuusually not handled at 60 hours by the NAM. Having said all that... having pretty much no other guidance at all showing much more than PHL to ACY, makes it tough to believe the NAM is correct, overall, in the first place. All that corrective stuff above happens when the other guidance has it too. EDIT: I haven't looked at the RGEM lately - oops So...the milk-shake version of all that mashes up to, I have no f clue what this thing is going to do, but, whatever the final result, I do believe it's impact should be mostly insignificant in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: It has been looking pretty good now for a good 24 hrs in this area...I am still waiting for the rug to get pulled out at the last minute though... The suppression meat grinder is delayed a bit which affects the Sun system moreso. We can relax with this and enjoy an advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Whoa!! Why the violent attack Pope? I was posting a question to see what thoughts were "Violence"? Expand your vocabulary. Attempting to mock someone is a disingenuous way to ask a forecast question. In the meantime, the surface trends warmer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 That's one helluva vertical thermal gradient in NNE around hr 48; thermal wind eq. comes to mind. That faint SLP/ivt in NNE is real; I think we'll see that feature grow in significance over time. Which SLP will predominate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: "Violence"? Expand your vocabulary. Attempt to mock someone is a disingenuous way to ask a forecast question. What are you talking about? I asked a question. Gotta settle in a bit friend. Anyway.. are you still thinking good snows for NNE with rain south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 RGEM is pretty far north. It's definitely a little quicker and deeper with the s/w in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The suppression meat grinder is delayed a bit which affects the Sun system moreso. We can relax with this and enjoy an advisory event. It would be nice just to see some snow falling, accumulating would be even better....I haven't measured anything since February 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The NAM takes, and the GFS gives it back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: It would be nice just to see some snow falling, accumulating would be even better....I haven't measured anything since February 12th Ive measured, just not snow. It's coming though, hopefully it is plowable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 GFS with a sizeable shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: GFS with a sizeable shift north. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the GEFS scored a coup on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: GFS with a sizeable shift north. Yeah this is starting to look pretty decent for a lot of SNE...Looks like NAM is the outlier so far nudging south at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this is starting to look pretty decent for a lot of SNE...Looks like NAM is the outlier so far nudging south at 12z. Nammy was the outlier north yesterday and the outlier south today. Hah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the GEFS scored a coup on this one. Yeah indeed. I will say the ensembles even for the EC were wetter overall too. So sort of a win for ensemble guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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