ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Here comes the 00z NAM...well north of 18z and also north of 12z. Should be a pretty good hit I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here comes the 00z NAM...well north of 18z and also north of 12z. Should be a pretty good hit I would think. Yeah was just gonna say. 3 IPAs in as it initialized and here comes the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 High end advisory verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah was just gonna say. 3 IPAs in as it initialized and here comes the solution. Damn, I'm only at #2. I will say the 1st was a IIIPA and the 2nd was a IIPA so it hits ya. Looks like we get some enhancement over E areas as it exits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Damn, I'm only at #2. I will say the 1st was a IIIPA and the 2nd was a IIPA so it hits ya. Looks like we get some enhancement over E areas as it exits. I meant the nam not me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Most guidance has had some IVT action as it exits...though a bit north of the main show. This run, it's mostly in a stripe from VT to about PWM...but maybe a little bit for E MA too. I wish this wasn't the NAM and a more reliable model to get a good idea if this trend is real...but you'd still rather see it come north than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Most guidance has had some IVT action as it exits...though a bit north of the main show. This run, it's mostly in a stripe from VT to about PWM...but maybe a little bit for E MA too. I wish this wasn't the NAM and a more reliable model to get a good idea if this trend is real...but you'd still rather see it come north than not. Yea, but we know its too north. Nam has not been bad this season imo but it is usually the left goal post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Check out the para. Double the regular NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, but we know its too north. Nam has not been bad this season imo but it is usually the left goal post. I don't think the nam has been that bad at all this year. Especially inside of 48 hours. The trend is clear by hour 48. This has legs IMO edit- re read your post so I guess I'm agreeing with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, leesun said: I don't think the nam has been that bad at all this year. Especially inside of 48 hours. The trend is clear by hour 48. This has legs IMO If had been terrible the last 6 weeks beyond 36. Prior to that it was great, and not just to 36, it was doing well in November December and early January out through 72 in some instances. Fwiw the RGEM at 48 does look fairly similar to the NAM over Missouri but it's hard to know where it goes from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: Check out the para. Double the regular NAM. Where do you get the para past 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Where do you get the para past 60? SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Where do you get the para past 60? Where do you get any Nam Para? I dont see it on tropical tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Where do you get any Nam Para? I dont see it on tropical tidbits. It's on there... 3km I believe is what is considered the para... but either way.... only goes out to 60 on pivots and tropical tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It's on there... 3km I believe is what is considered the para... but either way.... only goes out to 60 on pivots and tropical tidbits ahh, yeah, I see that, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It's on there... 3km I believe is what is considered the para... but either way.... only goes out to 60 on pivots and tropical tidbits No the Para is the 84 hr 12 k Nam replacement found on other sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Y 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: No the Para is the 84 hr 12 k Nam replacement found on other sites Correct. The 3km para is a hires experimental but a different product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Y Correct. The 3km para is a hires experimental but a different product. TBlizz is para paralyzed with 10 plus lol. Truth Ruth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Most guidance has had some IVT action as it exits...though a bit north of the main show. This run, it's mostly in a stripe from VT to about PWM...but maybe a little bit for E MA too. I wish this wasn't the NAM and a more reliable model to get a good idea if this trend is real...but you'd still rather see it come north than not. I'm not really shocked the NAM came north actually. I thought this whole week...or past few days that we would begin t see the models track north a bit. I thought the whole upper pattern advertised on the models (NAM/GFS/Euro) actually favored a track which should have been further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 0z GFS at 42h has regained the kink at H5 north of the Montana/ND border. Think it's coming north/sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm not really shocked the NAM came north actually. I thought this whole week...or past few days that we would begin t see the models track north a bit. I thought the whole upper pattern advertised on the models (NAM/GFS/Euro) actually favored a track which should have been further north. I really don't think the track is the issue, it's whether inflow is adequate or wether confluence shreds it so it becomes a basic snow shower system like the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Yeah, GFS will be north of 18z, but nothing like the 00z NAM and it is still south of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 GFS not biting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Yeah... doesn't look like the GFS is going to get it done... does look a little better than 18z though. NAM is tossed at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I really don't think the track is the issue, it's whether inflow is adequate or wether confluence shreds it so it becomes a basic snow shower system like the Euro shows. I would think confluence is more of a concern for Sunday than it is for Friday. For Friday at leas the GFS has remained further south but at times both NAM/GFS showed what could be a potent little system. Both models have had major differences where the baroclinic zone sets. There is a rather potent jet streak which develops and rounds the base of the trough and this helps to allow for just enough amplification to get this thing going. I would think inflow should be fine as well. I was thinking track is bigger concern due to where baroclinic zone is and such. The jet streak should help with amplification and from this thing going to shreds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 IDK...where the GFS develops the low and such doesn't seem right. Seems too far southeast. Unless the low is being driven by thermodynamics rather than hydrodynamics. But these are sort of the types of scenarios where the NAM sometimes scores the coop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I would think confluence is more of a concern for Sunday than it is for Friday. For Friday at leas the GFS has remained further south but at times both NAM/GFS showed what could be a potent little system. Both models have had major differences where the baroclinic zone sets. There is a rather potent jet streak which develops and rounds the base of the trough and this helps to allow for just enough amplification to get this thing going. I would think inflow should be fine as well. I was thinking track is bigger concern due to where baroclinic zone is and such. The jet streak should help with amplification and from this thing going to shreds. I think the GFS shows exactly what I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I think the GFS shows exactly what I mean There doesn't appear to be strong differences in the vorticity field between the NAM/GFS (looking at 66HR) or the wind fields. There are some subtle differences between north/south orientation and such but by looking at the upper pattern I would think more along the lines of something similar to the NAM as opposed to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 GGEM looks slightly north of 12z too, though still a whiff for most. South coast gets maybe 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: There doesn't appear to be strong differences in the vorticity field between the NAM/GFS (looking at 66HR) or the wind fields. There are some subtle differences between north/south orientation and such but by looking at the upper pattern I would think more along the lines of something similar to the NAM as opposed to the GFS. NAM over amps just like it did at 72 hours for the last non clipper. Unless we get a bend in the 5 h field rather than a rounded look we won't see substantial lift or inflow. Pretty obvious looking at the GFS Euro and GEM that the NAM right now is an outlier. Still time but I would not expect more than a nuisance event at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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