Baroclinic Zone Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just not enough moisture and ratios will not be all that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I agree with Bob. 8-12" is very high I assume it is the effect of their locked in ranges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I think 1-2 will cover it for most people from around the pike and south of there.... a narrow zone...maybe from SE CT over too Fall River area may get 3" maybe even a spot 4" in that zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I agree with Bob. 8-12" is very high I assume it is the effect of their locked in ranges This is true, but they are still going 6-10 in a lot of those warning zones, which is also high. I think 3-6 is good for most in SE MA into southern CT, then amounts drop off pretty rapidly as you head north. HRRR is coming in pretty consistent and isn't throwing out any huge caution flags atm, i think this QPF spread looks like a reasonable outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looks like James made that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: This is true, but they are still going 6-10 in a lot of those warning zones, which is also high. I think 3-6 is good for most in SE MA into southern CT, then amounts drop off pretty rapidly as you head north. HRRR is coming in pretty consistent and isn't throwing out any huge caution flags atm, i think this QPF spread looks like a reasonable outcome. The HRRR is frequently too wet by a good margin too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Ukie and Reggie bring so snowy so far north is all you need. So much worry over an easy forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That's what every model shows. They're actually a bit too conservative I'm curious about what you mean by this. As you know, the models don't show enough QPF (even the wetter GFS and RGEM) to justify the BOX forecast map under normal circumstances, so I assume you're referring to some other parameter of the models. What are you seeing on the models that makes you confident that the BOX map is conservative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This is true, but they are still going 6-10 in a lot of those warning zones, which is also high. I think 3-6 is good for most in SE MA into southern CT, then amounts drop off pretty rapidly as you head north. HRRR is coming in pretty consistent and isn't throwing out any huge caution flags atm, i think this QPF spread looks like a reasonable outcome. I'd like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Lack of posts tells you pretty much all you need to know... GFS looks virtually unchanged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This is a solid decent plowable event right before a major snowstorm and near record cold this weekend, all-in-all we should all be grateful, except those in the northern sections of the subforum but they will get theirs on monday and tuesday. 00Z suite looks fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Lack of posts tells you pretty much all you need to know... GFS looks virtually unchanged Yeah. Tells me they re in bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This is a solid decent plowable event right before a major snowstorm and near record cold this weekend, all-in-all we should all be grateful, except those in the northern sections of the subforum but they will get theirs on monday and tuesday. 00Z suite looks fine Great post! lol Tauntonblizz is definitely MPM's twin brother! speaking of MPM..where has he been? Jeff check the kennebec to see if he fell in?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Radar looks great and not even a flake yet... Dry air is definitely winning out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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