SnowGoose69 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Euro is bone dry. I'd take under on that QPF.... 925mb doesn't look great.. 850 is a disaster on Mass broder. Rarely does the Euro QPF overperform, it's almost always too dry unless the system is extremely strong and dynamic. It seems to have issues with weaker lows and clippers and such on QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Rarely does the Euro QPF overperform, it's almost always too dry unless the system is extremely strong and dynamic. It seems to have issues with weaker lows and clippers and such on QPF Well... 12z Friday is has RH at 850mb at KBAF of 45%. That's not pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: Well... 12z Friday is has RH at 850mb at KBAF of 45%. That's not pretty. Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Gonna be a nice event Pike south. Sit back now and watch the flakes fly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Euro is bone dry. I'd take under on that QPF.... 925mb doesn't look great.. 850 is a disaster on Mass broder. Yeah I mean it looks pretty similar to the GFS now. Saturates the DGZ to the Pike that tapers quickly N of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I by no means was calling out the vets on this. They know what they are doing. It is more for us weenies who end up picking and choosing the guidance that supports out thoughts. TauntingFlizzard would pick the rpm and the meh ncar members, for example. Or Snow88 finding a SREF that shows a roof collapsing at a Brooklyn man bar. Oh I know you weren't. Was just making the point of using the Models as guidance(especially in situations such as this when there are mixed signals), and then going from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 So reviewing the 12Z suite, every model shifted pretty solidly south except the UKMET which shifted substantially north. 2-4 looks like a good call for most of CT perhaps 5 or so near the shore and possibly down to an inch or less in far northern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 We wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Well if it's that dry...it's puzzling how it generated that much QPF. I dunno..I can't see the 925 and 850 RH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well if it's that dry...it's puzzling how it generated that much QPF. I dunno..I can't see the 925 and 850 RH. 70-75% in the DGZ up around CON and it still spits out 0.02" Could it happen? Sure, but I probably wouldn't be putting very high PoP in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Look to miss this for the most part...be happy with a "heavy" coating. But also hoping we get something extra from that norlun-like feature on GFS that appears along SME and NH coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 26 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: We wind. No deep sea fishing on Saturday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well if it's that dry...it's puzzling how it generated that much QPF. I dunno..I can't see the 925 and 850 RH. Pretty coarse from the Plym site, but H85 tomorrow morn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 FWIW the 18Z RPM is taking a pretty decent jog north, so there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: FWIW the 18Z RPM is taking a pretty decent jog north, so there's that 18z NAM only out to 6 hours, but it looks like it will be north of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM only our to 6 hours, but it looks like it will be north of 12z. Nice, good to see with the start of the 18Z suite we are not seeing a continuation or even a hault to the south trend but rather a somewhat correction back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Nice, good to see with the start of the 18Z suite we are not seeing a continuation or even a hault to the south trend but rather a somewhat correction back north. It would fit the M.O. of this system so far...I had mentioned back how for like 5 straight cycles, the models reverse the trend of the previous suite. The flip-flopping is pretty ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Yeah NAM will be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It would fit the M.O. of this system so far...I had mentioned back how for like 5 straight cycles, the models reverse the trend of the previous suite. The flip-flopping is pretty ridiculous. It's pretty bad, the consistency has been one of the worst so far this season with all the models really. Continuity and agreement was pretty excellent for a lot of the systems including Dec 17th, Jan 6th and Feb 9th but this one has been a real turd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Glad we don't live there. Concur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 18Z NAM is was pretty meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah NAM will be north. Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Wow.. advisories upgrade to warnings for SE CT and E LI...def didn't see that coming based on the latest model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looking at the NAM it doesn't look that great to me. i like my region wide 1-2 call from a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Or not. Classic "upper air was better, but the sfc didn't reflect it" run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I'm just going to come out and say it, the NAM is completely lost with this one and should probably just be tossed. It can't even agree with itself among its various resolutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 All this flip flopping in a fairly easy forecast 3-6" Pike south.. 1-3" north and a band of 7-8 probably across south central CT to RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Classic "upper air was better, but the sfc didn't reflect it" run. Yeah. All that dry air though has me concerned on the nrn edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The rgem should bump a smidge north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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