Baroclinic Zone Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 SE MA jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It just bothers me that it seems like synoptics argue north, but all the models are south of where you envision the QPF. Clearly they all see something..and sometimes it's not worth complicating the forecast by tearing your hair out over it...but I just feel like this has decent bust potential on the good side in areas near the pike. I guess we'll see how 12z trends. Ha. Yea, I had that with Jan 16 from philly to nyc where I thought qpf output from euro didnt make sense. Twas great when I "beat" the computer lol. But then I have lost many times too. I am also nowhere close to your knowledge base, but I can imagine tearing your eyeballs outbut then just shrug shoulders like oh well, they must know something....but imo, go with your thinking, balls to the wall, and sh*t on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The cape may get inv trough action. That's a wild card...even perhaps BOS. I think the coast battles ptype issues first half which may negate amounts somewhat there. Especially S CT to the Cape. That INV very well help BOS get to 5-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Damn this escalated, think a SW CT poster should do the honors of an OB thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think the coast battles ptype issues first half which may negate amounts somewhat there. Especially S CT to the Cape. That INV very well help BOS get to 5-6" Hey check out the thermal packing. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I'd like my good neighbor Spanks to start it, he has not "measured anything" for about a month...his ruler needs work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Not worried about any mixing issues. Any warmth will be at the surface and overcome by falling precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 NAM south again. Euro vs the world it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Only in the last few years can SE Mass Jack in mud March lol. The new snow capital of sne. Maybe MPM, Hubby, codfish, and myself will move to a farm in Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I'd like my good neighbor Spanks to start it, he has not "measured anything" for about a month...his ruler needs work. Thank you! My first thread start, hopefully it brings some good mojo to the area....Hopefully the yardstick get some work next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Whineminster is such an appropriate name the tenor of his posts. As if he doesn't have a higher total vs climo than SE MA this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It just bothers me that it seems like synoptics argue north, but all the models are south of where you envision the QPF. Clearly they all see something..and sometimes it's not worth complicating the forecast by tearing your hair out over it...but I just feel like this has decent bust potential on the good side in areas near the pike. I guess we'll see how 12z trends. Yeah it bothers me too...we may very well see the northern side overperform...gotta watch for the Bruce Willis runway caution flag dry air, but this doesn't have like 30-40 knot winds at 850 out of the NW...they are fairly light, so we'll see. RPM gets no snow north of the CT border...lol. Gotta love how guidance cant' figure out a friggin' clipper inside of 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it bothers me too...we may very well see the northern side overperform...gotta watch for the Bruce Willis runway caution flag dry air, but this doesn't have like 30-40 knot winds at 850 out of the NW...they are fairly light, so we'll see. RPM gets no snow north of the CT border...lol. Gotta love how guidance cant' figure out a friggin' clipper inside of 36 hours. Yes, I noticed that too. Usually a good thing. The euro really is on its own right now. Would be a pretty sweet win if it worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 NCAR ensemble has two members with warning criteria around the Pike. So I mean it's a 1 in 5 shot. That's well within the bounds set by our snow probability graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Then you have 4 moderate events for the south coast, and another 4 that are weak and even more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: NCAR ensemble has two members with warning criteria around the Pike. So I mean it's a 1 in 5 shot. That's well within the bounds set by our snow probability graphics. How many members have warning snows south of the pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: How many members have warning snows south of the pike? I just kind of posted about it above, but maybe you could argue 4 have isolated warning snows in SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I just kind of posted about it above, but maybe you could argue 4 have isolated warning snows in SW CT. Yea my bad, posted before your second post. So we still have weak sauce extreme south solutions on the table? lol nuts, inside 24hrs...yet we want perfection for next week right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 But seriously, look at the NAM H5 depiction...would you honestly believe precip has a hard time making it to I-90? Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea my bad, posted before your second post. So we still have weak sauce extreme south solutions on the table? lol nuts, inside 24hrs...yet we want perfection for next week right now. HRRRX is well south too. But uncomfortable "consensus" with roughly equal distribution between whiffs, moderate events, and larger Pike specials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Do these two images make sense together? Someone turn this into an educational experience please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 To support Will and Scooter's point.. the sref's ramped up http:// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 RGEM is south again...def starting to look like the Euro may have been on the sauce last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM is south again...def starting to look like the Euro may have been on the sauce last night. Yeah I think so. Pulling a Lucy and snatching the football away. Sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Do these two images make sense together? Someone turn this into an educational experience please! Those have 6hr different valid times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: Those have 6hr different valid times Right, because the precipitation is showing the previous 6 hours. I guess my question is, do we expect to find the heaviest precipitation to the south of the best vvs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I think so. Pulling a Lucy and snatching the football away. Sucks. Meh, 1-2" vs like 4-5"....better than getting a 15" storm yanked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Right, because the precipitation is showing the previous 6 hours. I guess my question is, do we expect to find the heaviest precipitation to the south of the best vvs? I guess it depends on what level that is? I tend to find that good VV from 700-500mb will cause heavier precip to the north of where the model has it. Not always, as it depends on how wrapped up the H7 and H5 low is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Meh, 1-2" vs like 4-5"....better than getting a 15" storm yanked. Yeah true. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: I guess it depends on what level that is? I tend to find that good VV from 700-500mb will cause heavier precip to the north of where the model has it. Not always, as it depends on how wrapped up the H7 and H5 low is. That was 700mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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