ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Figured we should start a new thread for this with today's significant bump north on guidance. We are still in a precarious setup though even with the northward shift..it merely gets us in the game for an advisory snowfall....with the best chance of that being the southern zones as of right now. The vort energy (or vortmax as often referred as) actually takes a pretty nice track for SNE going near or just south of LI....I'll use the 18z NAM as an example...not because the NAM is the best model, far from it, but because it was handy to grab and the model differences on the vortmax are basically negligible....the issue though is notice how the trough itself is kind fo rounded at the base. We want to sharpen that up a bit and it would both bump the snowfall northward and make it more intense at the same time with more inflow....if we don't see a bit sharper shortwave, then this will likely be mostly a miss save the south coast with probably sub-advisory accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I'm thinking a nice 3-6" event Pike south with potential 4-8" if trough sharpens as Will mentioned.. with 2-4 north of 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I'd be happy with mood snows at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 This is when models will come south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: This is when models will come south. Says the guy who is watching one of the major global models come in south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Says the guy who is watching one of the major global models come in south. Nah sort of trolling. It wouldn't shock me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Nah sort of trolling. It wouldn't shock me though. The GFS is definitely south. A whiff except for the immediate south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 ha, nice job troll. 12z pump fake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ha, nice job troll. 12z pump fake? Except the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Oh well. Worth one more set of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Oh well. Worth one more set of runs. I think we can take this until 0z thur unless it really shats the bed over the next couple cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I think we can take this until 0z thur unless it really shats the bed over the next couple cycles. If 00z runs go back south, it's likely a whiff job. Most of us really need a bump north at 00z...though status quo will keep the far southern peeps in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I beg folks not to jump ship because one set of off hour runs takes it south. I mean good Lord. This is slam dunk I-90 south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I beg folks not to jump ship because one set of off hour runs takes it south. I mean good Lord. This is slam dunk I-90 south You should play devils advocate with this one. Might help more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 25 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You should play devils advocate with this one. Might help more. We need Opposite George here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Gefs are still pretty bullish for advisory level snow in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 50 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You should play devils advocate with this one. Might help more. I really like this one For said areas. GEFS agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I really like this one For said areas. GEFS agree But I wouldn't go with the "Slam Dunk" wording at this stage. This could be flurries at best/or nothing for a lot of folks..especially your area on north. If at 0z it goes south again..it's over for Friday, so 0z is a big run in that sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Did they do something to increase the spread of the GEFS? Seems like it, anecdotally anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But I wouldn't go with the "Slam Dunk" wording at this stage. This could be flurries at best/or nothing for a lot of folks..especially your area on north. If at 0z it goes south again..it's over for Friday, so 0z is a big run in that sense. 00z doesn't cement anything. It's not a big run. Relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Not having followed closely recently because of starting a new job... I figured I'd take a closer look given the volume of posts around lunchtime. Anyway.... it looks pretty meh to me... the consensus has been way south for a few days now. We've seen this hiccup runs before, and I'm leaning towards that being the case with 12z today. my initial guess is maybe Jimmy gets grazed with an inch or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Not having followed closely recently because of starting a new job... I figured I'd take a closer look given the volume of posts around lunchtime. Anyway.... it looks pretty meh to me... the consensus has been way south for a few days now. We've seen this hiccup runs before, and I'm leaning towards that being the case with 12z today. my initial guess is maybe Jimmy gets grazed with an inch or so Lol the meh king surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 How much for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 37 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Not having followed closely recently because of starting a new job... I figured I'd take a closer look given the volume of posts around lunchtime. Anyway.... it looks pretty meh to me... the consensus has been way south for a few days now. We've seen this hiccup runs before, and I'm leaning towards that being the case with 12z today. my initial guess is maybe Jimmy gets grazed with an inch or so Congrats on the job. We have been awaiting your analysis, it is not the same without the mehs to offset the Jimmys. Need that balance here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Tblizz's negativity has been a good luck charm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Congrats on the job. We have been awaiting your analysis, it is not the same without the mehs to offset the Jimmys. Need that balance here. Thanks, appreciate it. And lol... I've been wrong numerous times... but I'm really not seeing it here... I guess there is maybe some upside if it continues to trend well over the next 48 hours. Anyway, even 1-3 in the middle of the day in mid march is pretty meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tblizz's negativity has been a good luck charm. Lol... it has. Even though I'd been serious when I've been negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justaroofer Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 im sensing the clipper will not be a threat to my neck of the woods of Conway NH. Am I correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, justaroofer said: im sensing the clipper will not be a threat to my neck of the woods of Conway NH. Am I correct? Probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justaroofer Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 bummer I believe this is the first time anyone has used this icon because of disappointment and not to belittle someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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