Rjay Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Ukie total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: Best part of Euro is that nothing falls after 10am. It's all 4am to 10am. After 10am, .01" falls. How much falls before 10AM and at what BL temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Still a lot of uncertainty for this close in. Obviously the Euro/UK/NAM would be the best for most of our subforum, but the Canadian models and probably GFS would be slop/slush near the coast and in the city. Best bet right now is probably 1-3" near the city and 3-5" north and west and possibly over Suffolk/N Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 looks to be a solid snowstorm on the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 and she's coming up the coast at hr 120 on the EURO for wave 3.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, mikem81 said: How much falls before 10AM and at what BL temps? 32-33 degrees. About .35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: looks to be a solid snowstorm on the EURO I think the panic is unwarranted over Friday's clipper. The storm starts around 3-4am with 850s of -2/-3C, cools to -5/-6C by 10am with the boundary layer around 33-34F. I'm thinking 2-4" NYC (highest in elevated areas of NW Bronx like Riverdale, lowest near JFK), 3-5" in immediate suburbs, 4-6" further north and with elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 47 minutes ago, nzucker said: I think the panic is unwarranted over Friday's clipper. The storm starts around 3-4am with 850s of -2/-3C, cools to -5/-6C by 10am with the boundary layer around 33-34F. I'm thinking 2-4" NYC (highest in elevated areas of NW Bronx like Riverdale, lowest near JFK), 3-5" in immediate suburbs, 4-6" further north and with elevation. Euro has no precip after 10am either. It all falls 4am to 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Nams way south of previous runs, my weaker too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The NAM is basically useless for this event right now. The Para at 18Z has virtually no event at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM is basically useless for this event right now RGEM has had a decent handle... normally I like the nam, especially this season, but we're seeing a far different pattern/set-up and Nam seems to be having trouble... its fluctuated between north and south on run to run swing, I'll be going with RGEM/GFS blend on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM has had a decent handle... normally I like the nam, especially this season, but we're seeing a far different pattern/set-up and Nam seems to be having trouble... its fluctuated between north and south on run to run swing, I'll be going with RGEM/GFS blend on this one Also keep in mind that the EURO/JMA/UKIE all show almost the same track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 RGEM holds it ground, really nice hit for LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I think I'll wait and use a combination of the Radar/HRRR for this one. It's not the most accurate model, but it's been decent for some of the smaller events. I can't recall how it did with Friday's clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 RGEM again only really snows north of the city and in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: RGEM again only really snows north of the city and in SNE. It came south compared to the 12z run though. On the 12z run you had to go well north of NYC to see accumulation. This 18z run gets a little accumulation down to NYC, based on what I saw from the color loop. I'm waiting to see the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Orange/Rockland/NEPA/NNJ ftw on RGEM, glad I'm working Friday at West Point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Temps are marginal so don't expect more than 10:1 out of these totals, especially near the coast... inland 850s are a bit cooler but I still doubt anyone sees better than 10 or 12:1 lower Hudson valley would see low end warning snows in some spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 hours ago, nzucker said: I think the panic is unwarranted over Friday's clipper. The storm starts around 3-4am with 850s of -2/-3C, cools to -5/-6C by 10am with the boundary layer around 33-34F. I'm thinking 2-4" NYC (highest in elevated areas of NW Bronx like Riverdale, lowest near JFK), 3-5" in immediate suburbs, 4-6" further north and with elevation. Good call. People need to remember there is plenty of cold aloft. Any heavier rates will bring down colder air. Allot of 32 and paste. We are heading Into elevation season. Above 1000 it could be a warning level event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Gfs agrees with rgem, just not as bullish on precip intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 That was a significant shift on the RGEM. This 18z run gets 1 to 2 inches of snow down to NYC. The 12z run was way north. Hopefully RGEM will keep correcting south tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: That was a significant shift on the RGEM. This 18z run gets 1 to 2 inches of snow down to NYC. The 12z run was way north. Hopefully RGEM will keep correcting south tonight. Hopefully not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Hopefully not Or just widen the precip field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Or just widen the precip field I could live with that lol... I need 3.9" to hit my average (54) idk about some of you but this has been a great winter IMO.... 2 severe weather threats, winds in excess of 70mph and tornados, a ton of nickle and dime events that were fun to track (despite the bickering lol) a sleet storm that dropped nearly half a foot of sleet here, and a couple good warning events... not to mention multiple 70+ days that pushed 80f, an upcoming clipper, and a very ripe pattern for the next 2 weeks that, IMO will produce a MECS.... can't ask for much more other than that folks btw I'm all in for wave 3, never liked the weekend wave, and always thought our best shot was next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I could live with that lol... I need 3.9" to hit my average (54) idk about some of you but this has been a great winter IMO.... 2 severe weather threats, winds in excess of 70mph and tornados, a ton of nickle and dime events that were fun to track (despite the bickering lol) a sleet storm that dropped nearly half a foot of sleet here, and a couple good warning events... not to mention multiple 70+ days that pushed 80f, an upcoming clipper, and a very ripe pattern for the next 2 weeks that, IMO will produce a MECS.... can't ask for much more other than that folks btw I'm all in for wave 3, never liked the weekend wave, and always thought our best shot was next week It's pretty outragous that I'm sitting at under 15" on the season and you have nearly four times more snow than me not more than 40-50 miles to my NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: It's pretty outragous that I'm sitting at under 15" on the season and you have nearly four times more snow than me not more than 40-50 miles to my NNW. Ur really under 15? Jesus our totals up here were inflated from a good December.. I think December ended around 20-28" up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's pretty outragous that I'm sitting at under 15" on the season and you have nearly four times more snow than me not more than 40-50 miles to my NNW. Yeah December produced up here. I'm at 45" and need 5" to reach my seasonal average of 50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ur really under 15? Jesus our totals up here were inflated from a good December.. I think December ended around 20-28" up here Had 4" from that one storm the week before Christmas I believe. Had 9" from the bigger storm from February. All the other events have added up to about 2" total. Woud have had a lot more with the early February storm but lost a lot to sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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