Morris Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I wonder why this maps wayyyyy different from mine Probably the surface temps messing up wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I wonder why this maps wayyyyy different from mine Yes there is a significant difference between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Odd. Pivotalweather is usually accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The NAM has been flopping all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM has been flopping all over Each and every run seems to be different. Nam is not good at this range it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 This is 4-6" for most....someone in eastern LI may see 5-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: This is 4-6" for most....someone in eastern LI may see 5-7" Thanks for posting this. It was all snow on the sim radar on the NAM. Wxbell just didn't accumulate them because of the surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Looks like coastal enhancement at the end that could up totals on eastern LI. Could be a lucky 6" spot there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: Thanks for posting this. It was all snow on the sim radar on the NAM. Wxbell just didn't accumulate them because of the surface temps. Don't rely so much on the weenie maps. I'd be thrilled to see more than 2-3" in my backyard despite this NAM showing 0.5" liquid falling as snow. Thursday afternoon might hit 60 in spots. If this was a heavy burst of snow I wouldn't worry about the ground temp, but a long period of light snow is a different story. I remember a similar event in mid March 2004 that was heaviest along I-80 and Central Park had under 1" accumulate when 3-5" was expected because of the light intensity. Just outside the city had over 4" though. Hopefully this isn't too similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 12z RGEM looks terrible. It's way north, and has just a little light rain changing to a touch of light snow for NYC. Looks like no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Don't rely so much on the weenie maps. I'd be thrilled to see more than 2-3" in my backyard despite this NAM showing 0.5" liquid falling as snow. Thursday afternoon might hit 60 in spots. If this was a heavy burst of snow I wouldn't worry about the ground temp, but a long period of light snow is a different story. I remember a similar event in mid March 2004 that was heaviest along I-80 and Central Park had under 1" accumulate when 3-5" was expected because of the light intensity. Just outside the city had over 4" though. Hopefully this isn't too similar. Don't we cut NAM totals in half or one third anyway? And this is a clipper- in March. Outside of areas that could get more from redevelopment (by that I mean Suffolk County) I don't think anyone gets more than 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 12z RGEM looks terrible. It's way north, and has just a little light rain changing to a touch of light snow for NYC. Looks like no accumulation. This being an event mostly for the Catskills to SNE is on the table still too. Luckily the RGEM is still out of its better range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 25 minutes ago, Paragon said: Don't we cut NAM totals in half or one third anyway? And this is a clipper- in March. Outside of areas that could get more from redevelopment (by that I mean Suffolk County) I don't think anyone gets more than 2-3" Not necessarily but we can't just look at qpf and assume thats all accumulating snow. It can stick at 33-34 for sure but needs to be at least moderate and preferably falling at night since the ground will be so warm to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Each and every run seems to be different. Nam is not good at this range it seems.It's been pretty consistent with its more northerly track than the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The GFS is almost a bastardized southern version of the RGEM. Both models seem to like the overruning and not really buying into the idea of the coastal throwing much back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The NAM and RGEM could not possibly be more different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Some models are developing an area of snow showers with the vort coming through Fri afternoon which comes through NE NJ and the NYC area. Besides that, it's really a lot of mehh near the city, temps are in the mid 30s for most of the precip and it's mostly light with the GFS. North of the city sees most of the better overrunning and probably gets a good 3-5" on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The NAM and RGEM could not possibly be more different. I cannot trust the NAM as its been shaky the last month. The RGEM being vastly different from the Euro is bizarre but I can believe it somewhat because the RGEM is best inside 30-36. The UKMET has by far been the most consistent with this, even the Euro was not on board til yesterday and its waffled south/north/south the last 3 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Not necessarily but we can't just look at qpf and assume thats all accumulating snow. It can stick at 33-34 for sure but needs to be at least moderate and preferably falling at night since the ground will be so warm to start Yes, that's my experience too. It can even stick at 36 (barely) if it's falling hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Ok so its clear the GFS iisnt buying much into accumilations around the city for the clipper, but not having heard anything about wave 3 is interesting, it has been consistent with it for 3 runs..nothing on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: Ok so its clear the GFS iisnt buying much into accumilations around the city for the clipper, but not having heard anything about wave 3 is interesting, it has been consistent with it for 3 runs..nothing on this run? The storm is there. We should discuss it on March Model Discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: Ok so its clear the GFS iisnt buying much into accumilations around the city for the clipper, but not having heard anything about wave 3 is interesting, it has been consistent with it for 3 runs..nothing on this run? Wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The UKMET continues not to budge on this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, NEG NAO said: ? refresh my memory - got a map ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Looks good. Same look for the last 2-3 days of runs on the UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET continues not to budge on this event That's a good sign-hopefully the Euro finally bites. Would also be nice to see the other models shift back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That's a good sign-hopefully the Euro finally bites. Would also be nice to see the other models shift back south. The Euro at 00Z is similar to the 12Z UKMET although the UKMET is definitely wetter it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Euro looks similar to 12z ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Best part of Euro is that nothing falls after 10am. It's all 4am to 10am. After 10am, .01" falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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