mikem81 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: even when taking the temps into account and that it might fall during daylight hours (exact timing still has to be worked out)? 33 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I think is an Alberta clipper, it's a piece of that big storm that's out west and sort of weakens as it crosses the northern Rockies but redevelops around the Ohio valley and rides the arctic boundary. But it does cross through Alberta region. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GEFS 18z look great for a 3-6 inch snowstorm GEFS looks even better for follow up storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Nam is quite north of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Nam is quite north of 18z Yea....nice run for NNJ into the Hudson Valley...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Animal said: Yea....nice run for NNJ into the Hudson Valley...... Yeah up in your area or Sussex but that's light slop for everyone south of there per the nam. New England gets a real nice snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Yeah up in your area or Sussex but that's light slop for everyone south of there per the nam. New England gets a real nice snowfall Hopefully it's just a bad NAM run. Nothing else has had it that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Please look aloft. System 1 and System 2 will be non-events. The confluent flow aloft will prevent these two systems from developing. I think a few inches is possible especially somewhere between I-78 and I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Enigma said: Please look aloft. System 1 and System 2 will be non-events. The confluent flow aloft will prevent these two systems from developing. I think a few inches is possible especially somewhere between I-78 and I-84. wave 2 might be a disorganized mess looks that way on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The RGEM at 48 looks close to the NAM but this is such a non dynamic system with a marginal signal a 48 hours so its impossible to know what occurs at 60 or 72 based on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Hopefully it's just a bad NAM run. Nothing else has had it that far north. Models have been trending north with it all day. It might be a wacky NAM run but this often happens with these types of events, and I don't see much to stop it trending this time. Hopefully other models stop the trend tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Models have been trending north with it all day. It might be a wacky NAM run but this often happens with these types of events, and I don't see much to stop it trending this time. Hopefully other models stop the trend tonight and tomorrow. 18z NAM was south of 12z NAM, so there hasn't been any trend on the NAM today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, winterwx21 said: 18z NAM was south of 12z NAM, so there hasn't been any trend on the NAM today. IMO the 18Z NAM should have been north of where it was based off the upper level setup. The 21Z SREFs though dont see to be as insanely north as the NAM so it may be too far north. The Para NAM solution is totally unrealistic, it is as far north as the NAM but develops an intense area of snow over the area as the low develops offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 IMO, this will be the thread that saves the winter. I don't think people realize the importance of jinxing the clipper. The dampening out of both system 1 and system 2 will be vital to keep heights marginally high enough off the EC and also preventing more unnecessary downstream N. Atlantic blocking. Both of these entities are needed for a Miller A to gain altitude in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Enigma said: IMO, this will be the thread that saves the winter. I don't think people realize the importance of jinxing the clipper. The dampening out of both system 1 and system 2 will be vital to keep heights marginally high enough off the EC and also preventing more unnecessary downstream N. Atlantic blocking. Both of these entities are needed for a Miller A to gain altitude in this pattern. the trick is too hold enough cold air in place for Wave 3 and the track of the storm is off the coast not hugging it or inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 hour ago, swamplover56 said: Nam is quite north of 18z GFS is also north but not like the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GFS is also north but not like the Nam GFS would be nonaccumulating snow/white rain in the city and a slushy 1-3" elsewhere. The front gets hung up too far north and cold air takes too long to bleed in. It might be a few degrees too warm but even allowing that, it would be a 34-35 degree lgt-mod snow in the city, which would be tough to accumulate coming off temps in the 50s not long before. It just looks like the snow isn't heavy enough on this to drill the cold air down. One positive is it would mostly be at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: GFS would be nonaccumulating snow/white rain in the city and a slushy 1-3" elsewhere. The front gets hung up too far north and cold air takes too long to bleed in. It might be a few degrees too warm but even allowing that, it would be a 34-35 degree lgt-mod snow in the city, which would be tough to accumulate coming off temps in the 50s not long before. It just looks like the snow isn't heavy enough on this to drill the cold air down. One positive is it would mostly be at night. There would be accumulating snow in the City but on colder surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 0z NAM.. Not bad for those in the interior.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Nam still well north of GFS, RGEM agrees with nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam still well north of GFS, RGEM agrees with nam 6 GFS was the perfect run for northern NJ into the LHV. Lolipops to 4 or 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam still well north of GFS, RGEM agrees with nam It appears even on the RGEM solution everyone gets in on the action eventually. The initial overrunning is north but then as the coastal forms everything pivots SE and development occurs into CNJ. The RGEM is much faster than than NAM through 48 by about 6-8 hours or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 12Z NAM looks much better for the metro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Excited that we have two storms to track. This one looks to be the appetizer, but it would be the first accumulating snow in quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Hopefully the NAM is starting a ticking back south. And hopefully there are heavier periods of snow near the city that can accumulate. I'm not sure if hours of light stuff will do it other than on car tops and grass coming off temps near 60. The more of it at night the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Nams south, nice run for city, LI, jersey , LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nams south, nice run for city, LI, jersey , LHV Care to post a map? So I guess the best possible solution would be for a nice little thump Thurs night into Friday... have the weekend storm whiff big time to set the stage for a big early next week storm... right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: I wonder why this maps wayyyyy different from mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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