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March 10th 2017 Clipper disco/obs


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sure glad you created this thread all that wave 1 , wave 2 and wave 3 stuff in the other model thread was being to sound like that Abbot and Costello skit - "who's on first " etc etc.

anyways the 18Z NAM is the first up to bat here and is currently  in the batters box.

namconus_ref_frzn_us_26.png

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Compare that to 12z. What I said is correct.

it was never expected to be anything more then a light event - and around the metro except for northern most areas the result is close to the same using the 12Z and 18Z NAM

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

it was never expected to be anything more then a light event - and around the metro expect for northern most areas the result is close to the same using the 12Z and 18Z NAM

No it's not, look at the difference in surface temperatures.

namconus_T2m_neus_48.png

namconus_T2m_neus_50.png

Even though it's only a degree or two warmer, that makes a major difference with accumulations in almost mid March during the day.

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1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

This could be a 4-8 similar to February 3rd 2014 post Super Bowl snowstorm. I think 3-6 is given if we get that track the GFS and jma is depicting. 

Ukie shows 3-6 inches. An uptick in qpf is def possible but right now, this is a 1-3/2-4 inch event.

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2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

This could be a 4-8 similar to February 3rd 2014 post Super Bowl snowstorm. I think 3-6 is given if we get that track the GFS and jma is depicting. 

Surface temps won't be a problem you'll get evaporative and dynamic cooling!

Good post

At first it should be warm but as the precip moves in, temps shouldn't be a problem. The sun angle is bull**** if we get moderate rates.

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Ukie shows 3-6 inches. An uptick in qpf is def possible but right now, this is a 1-3/2-4 inch event.

 

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Good post

At first it should be warm but as the precip moves in, temps shouldn't be a problem. The sun angle is bull**** if we get moderate rates.

The stronger dynamics on the 18z NAM are over Central and Southern NJ instead of Northern NJ and NY like the 12z run showed. You're going to struggle accumulating with light snow falling during the day on March 10th. I'm not saying that the 18z NAM run is correct, I just certainly don't think it adds confidence.

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

The stronger dynamics on the 18z NAM are over Central and Southern NJ instead of Northern NJ and NY like the 12z run showed. You're going to struggle accumulating with light snow falling during the day on March 10th. I'm not saying that the 18z NAM run is correct, I just certainly don't think it adds confidence.

The PARA and SREFs were more north.  I also thought there was less confluence on the 18z NAM to the north as of 48.  At hour 48 I thought it was going to come north of the 12Z run and it probably should have.

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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

The stronger dynamics on the 18z NAM are over Central and Southern NJ instead of Northern NJ and NY like the 12z run showed. You're going to struggle accumulating with light snow falling during the day on March 10th. I'm not saying that the 18z NAM run is correct, I just certainly don't think it adds confidence.

Not all of it falls during the day. The snow comes in late thursday night. It's good that some of it falls early in the morning before sun angle becomes an issue. 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The PARA and SREFs were more north.  I also thought there was less confluence on the 18z NAM to the north as of 48.  At hour 48 I thought it was going to come north of the 12Z run and it probably should have.

To me it looked like the shortwave was more sheared out. It's still the long range NAM and not really worth a whole lot of discussion. I will stick with what the other models have for now. I just don't think people should be expecting a high level advisory event on March 10th, during the day, with a marginal BL, poor preceeding airmass and borderline dynamics.

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Not all of it falls during the day. The snow comes in late thursday night. It's good that some of it falls early in the morning before sun angle becomes an issue. 

NYC is sitting at almost 50 degrees at 00z Friday. The earlier it comes in, the warmer the BL.

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I fully expect us to have under 1" by the end of the weekend.  This clipper will be good for "mood" snow (though the goodness of that is debatable in March lol.) and it'll be cold and dry this weekend.  And then we'll get rain on Tuesday or snow changing to rain starting Monday night lol.

 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

this is looking like last week-a clipper that flops on Friday followed by very cold and dry weekend weather.  

Saturday keeps trending colder like it did last week.  Forecast high is 27°, much more reminiscent of mid-winter. 

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11 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Wait isn't this riding on an arctic front? So it isn't a clipper

 

Yeah not really a clipper.  Shortwave beneath an approaching arctic front/high with a possible surface reflection that gets going.  It maybe is most similar to 2/6/93 as far as ones I remember

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I remember that one really well.  It occurred on the weekend and gave us a nice surprise of 4 inches of snow and Plainview jackpotted with 7 inches lol.  I really liked how it snowed all day and then the sun came out just in time for sunset, and we had a gorgeous starry night with fresh snow cover and cold.

 

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36 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Wait isn't this riding on an arctic front? So it isn't a clipper

 

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Yeah not really a clipper.  Shortwave beneath an approaching arctic front/high with a possible surface reflection that gets going.  It maybe is most similar to 2/6/93 as far as ones I remember

I think is an Alberta clipper, it's a piece of that big storm that's out west and sort of weakens as it crosses the northern Rockies but redevelops around the Ohio valley and rides the arctic boundary. But it does cross through Alberta region.

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GEFS 18z look great for a 3-6 inch snowstorm

IMG_1628.PNG

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7 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

 

I think is an Alberta clipper, it's a piece of that big storm that's out west and sort of weakens as it crosses the northern Rockies but redevelops around the Ohio valley and rides the arctic boundary. But it does cross through Alberta region.

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GEFS 18z look great for a 3-6 inch snowstorm

IMG_1628.PNG

even when taking the temps into account and that it might fall during daylight hours (exact timing still has to be worked out)?

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