WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Most models are showing this potential. Let's discuss this here from now on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 sure glad you created this thread all that wave 1 , wave 2 and wave 3 stuff in the other model thread was being to sound like that Abbot and Costello skit - "who's on first " etc etc. anyways the 18Z NAM is the first up to bat here and is currently in the batters box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 18z NAM will be South and weaker than 12z. Nice jinx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z NAM will be South and weaker than 12z. Nice jinx. meh on the 18z...alot of white rain in marginal temps around freezing and daytime snow on 3/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z NAM will be South and weaker than 12z. Nice jinx. ? south but moderate snow near the city LI and central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: ? south but moderate snow near the city LI and central NJ Compare that to 12z. What I said is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 The 18z NAM prints out about 4 inches for NYC using 10:1 ratio, and 2 inches using Kuchera ratio. Obviously temps will be borderline, so we'll lose some accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Compare that to 12z. What I said is correct. it was never expected to be anything more then a light event - and around the metro except for northern most areas the result is close to the same using the 12Z and 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, NEG NAO said: it was never expected to be anything more then a light event - and around the metro expect for northern most areas the result is close to the same using the 12Z and 18Z NAM No it's not, look at the difference in surface temperatures. Even though it's only a degree or two warmer, that makes a major difference with accumulations in almost mid March during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 This could be a 4-8 similar to February 3rd 2014 post Super Bowl snowstorm. I think 3-6 is given if we get that track the GFS and jma is depicting. Surface temps won't be a problem you'll get evaporative and dynamic cooling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: This could be a 4-8 similar to February 3rd 2014 post Super Bowl snowstorm. I think 3-6 is given if we get that track the GFS and jma is depicting. Ukie shows 3-6 inches. An uptick in qpf is def possible but right now, this is a 1-3/2-4 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: This could be a 4-8 similar to February 3rd 2014 post Super Bowl snowstorm. I think 3-6 is given if we get that track the GFS and jma is depicting. Surface temps won't be a problem you'll get evaporative and dynamic cooling! Good post At first it should be warm but as the precip moves in, temps shouldn't be a problem. The sun angle is bull**** if we get moderate rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie shows 3-6 inches. An uptick in qpf is def possible but right now, this is a 1-3/2-4 inch event. 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Good post At first it should be warm but as the precip moves in, temps shouldn't be a problem. The sun angle is bull**** if we get moderate rates. The stronger dynamics on the 18z NAM are over Central and Southern NJ instead of Northern NJ and NY like the 12z run showed. You're going to struggle accumulating with light snow falling during the day on March 10th. I'm not saying that the 18z NAM run is correct, I just certainly don't think it adds confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 You also have to remember that we're going to be in the middle 50's on Thursday, so the ground is going to be warm to begin with. Even with a few hours of moderate snow possible I would probably take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The stronger dynamics on the 18z NAM are over Central and Southern NJ instead of Northern NJ and NY like the 12z run showed. You're going to struggle accumulating with light snow falling during the day on March 10th. I'm not saying that the 18z NAM run is correct, I just certainly don't think it adds confidence. The PARA and SREFs were more north. I also thought there was less confluence on the 18z NAM to the north as of 48. At hour 48 I thought it was going to come north of the 12Z run and it probably should have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The stronger dynamics on the 18z NAM are over Central and Southern NJ instead of Northern NJ and NY like the 12z run showed. You're going to struggle accumulating with light snow falling during the day on March 10th. I'm not saying that the 18z NAM run is correct, I just certainly don't think it adds confidence. Not all of it falls during the day. The snow comes in late thursday night. It's good that some of it falls early in the morning before sun angle becomes an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The PARA and SREFs were more north. I also thought there was less confluence on the 18z NAM to the north as of 48. At hour 48 I thought it was going to come north of the 12Z run and it probably should have. To me it looked like the shortwave was more sheared out. It's still the long range NAM and not really worth a whole lot of discussion. I will stick with what the other models have for now. I just don't think people should be expecting a high level advisory event on March 10th, during the day, with a marginal BL, poor preceeding airmass and borderline dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Not all of it falls during the day. The snow comes in late thursday night. It's good that some of it falls early in the morning before sun angle becomes an issue. NYC is sitting at almost 50 degrees at 00z Friday. The earlier it comes in, the warmer the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 18z GFS is kind of similar to the 18z NAM, maybe a tick further South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 this is looking like last week-a clipper that flops on Friday followed by very cold and dry weekend weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I fully expect us to have under 1" by the end of the weekend. This clipper will be good for "mood" snow (though the goodness of that is debatable in March lol.) and it'll be cold and dry this weekend. And then we'll get rain on Tuesday or snow changing to rain starting Monday night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: this is looking like last week-a clipper that flops on Friday followed by very cold and dry weekend weather. Saturday keeps trending colder like it did last week. Forecast high is 27°, much more reminiscent of mid-winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Wait isn't this riding on an arctic front? So it isn't a clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Wait isn't this riding on an arctic front? So it isn't a clipper Yeah not really a clipper. Shortwave beneath an approaching arctic front/high with a possible surface reflection that gets going. It maybe is most similar to 2/6/93 as far as ones I remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I remember that one really well. It occurred on the weekend and gave us a nice surprise of 4 inches of snow and Plainview jackpotted with 7 inches lol. I really liked how it snowed all day and then the sun came out just in time for sunset, and we had a gorgeous starry night with fresh snow cover and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah not really a clipper. Shortwave beneath an approaching arctic front/high with a possible surface reflection that gets going. It maybe is most similar to 2/6/93 as far as ones I remember That was 5 weeks before the blizzard of 1993, how much snow did NYC get then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, sferic said: That was 5 weeks before the blizzard of 1993, how much snow did NYC get then? 4-5 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 36 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Wait isn't this riding on an arctic front? So it isn't a clipper 22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah not really a clipper. Shortwave beneath an approaching arctic front/high with a possible surface reflection that gets going. It maybe is most similar to 2/6/93 as far as ones I remember I think is an Alberta clipper, it's a piece of that big storm that's out west and sort of weakens as it crosses the northern Rockies but redevelops around the Ohio valley and rides the arctic boundary. But it does cross through Alberta region. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GEFS 18z look great for a 3-6 inch snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I think is an Alberta clipper, it's a piece of that big storm that's out west and sort of weakens as it crosses the northern Rockies but redevelops around the Ohio valley and rides the arctic boundary. But it does cross through Alberta region. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GEFS 18z look great for a 3-6 inch snowstorm even when taking the temps into account and that it might fall during daylight hours (exact timing still has to be worked out)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 51 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Wait isn't this riding on an arctic front? So it isn't a clipper These waves have a tendency to get stronger as we get close to the event. Lets see if the models do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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