Stovepipe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 We're probably getting Nammed, but no sun angle or ground temp could deter a dumping such as that. It would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, dwagner88 said: Ouch. I see you were cut off as I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Almost looked like to pieces merged inTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I think it's time for MRX to consider issuing products. WSW may be warranted everywhere but the southern valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The 0z HI-RES NAM has probably the more realistic outcome for this event. The big difference was on the front end where the hi res has much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Major difference in total QPF. 12km NAM on top and 4km HI-RES NAM on the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: We're probably getting Nammed, but no sun angle or ground temp could deter a dumping such as that. It would be epic. It would be epic after such an abysmal Winter that we have a snow like that in March on the weekend anniversary of the '93 Superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS is slightly drier in the Eastern areas again, but maintained the 1-2 inches in the Western Valley areas from earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 0z CMC....appears to be almost totally ditching the first wave and going all-in on the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Rip Dreams, Hope you guys get a good snow down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'm trying not to get excited over the potential phasing event on Tuesday but good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'm trying not to get excited over the potential phasing event on Tuesday but good grief. Given my circumstances I am trying to shift my greater expectations on the 2nd event which is like going in reverse 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 0z NAM and it's Cobb are pushing one foot for TYS. Cut that in half and I'd still be blown away. Pretty sure my location has only seen half a foot twice since 96 (2014 and 2015 with the possible addition of jan 2000). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 0z CMC....appears to be almost totally ditching the first wave and going all-in on the second.It was a swing and a miss on both. Much further east with the second wave. Totally different than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I read but haven't seen that the Euro made a comeback to some extent on the weekend system in Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Euro says game on! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Image failed unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Image failed unfortunately.Try it again Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Nope I'm not sure why it's not posting the picture but it's a huge improvement over the 12z.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Here it is. Razor sharp cut-off for S. Ky. Thanks Olhausen for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 My guess to the improvement you are mentioning with my blind judgement is the systems arrival in the pacific northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 We'll have to see if this starts a stronger/northern trend on the models. That's a massive move for the Euro from 12z. Figures the Canadian and the Euro would basically flip positions. I honestly strongly prefer having the Euro in our corner vs the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 We'll have to see if this starts a stronger/northern trend on the models. That's a massive move for the Euro from 12z. Figures the Canadian and the Euro would basically flip positions. I honestly strongly prefer having the Euro in our corner vs the Canadian. I concur, to see this from the euro is refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Here it is. Razor sharp cut-off for S. Ky. Thanks Olhausen for posting.Yes it is but I have a feeling this is going to come a tick north. Not a professional forecaster by any means but just my gut feeling ever since it started slipping south last night.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Nope I'm not sure why it's not posting the picture but it's a huge improvement over the 12z.Sent from my iPad using TapatalkTry uploading it as a attachment. It worked for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The key to north or not is strength and orientation of the system. When systems are stronger and take on a slightly more negative tilt they come north. The massive qpf increase on the Euro seems to indicate that is what happened. Yesterday it led the trend of weaker, most positive tilt, drier. All the models except the NAM followed it. We will see if it leads the way back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 John1122 I do believe you have created the 25,000th post! What a marker! I read but haven't seen that the Euro made a comeback to some extent on the weekend system in Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Here it is. Razor sharp cut-off for S. Ky. Thanks Olhausen for posting.Do you have the clown for areas further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The key to north or not is strength and orientation of the system. When systems are stronger and take on a slightly more negative tilt they come north. The massive qpf increase on the Euro seems to indicate that is what happened. Yesterday it led the trend of weaker, most positive tilt, drier. All the models except the NAM followed it. We will see if it leads the way back.It will be funny if the nam ends up being right all along. It kept spitting out totals way higher then all the other models today until tonight's euro run.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Do you have the clown for areas further east? I do not, that is the clown that Olhausen was trying to get to post but it failed. He may have access to a larger view of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Earlier I mentioned how modeling qpf is the toughest thing for the models from what I've observed. 24 hours ago the GFS modeled .5 or less for the entire state for this current rain event. 48 hours ago the max in Tennessee was .3 over a very small area for this event and most of the state was .10 to .20. A large portion of the state is over 1 inch on the evening with some maxes of 2.5 now that the event is unfolding. I'm currently just over 1 inch with heavy precip falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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