Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Somebody just needs to do well with this in the forum area. Post some pics and we will live vicariously through those. I consider any snow a complete steal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Somebody just needs to do well with this in the forum area. Post some pics and we will live vicariously through those. I consider any snow a complete steal.I look to be in a good spot in N Knox Co but with 48 out still I'm not holding my breath. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 at 66 hours nam cityThat's getting into danger territory to be honest. I want a good snow but not that much with a lot of trees with foliage on them. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: That's getting into danger territory to be honest. I want a good snow but not that much with a lot of trees with foliage on them. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro It's mostly just bradford pears and their wild variants right now...I wouldn't care if we could get rid of those nuisance trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 This event is going to hit trees hard. Love snow or hate snow, it's the combined wet snow hanging around and hard freeze after that will likely hit fruit trees hard across the upper Valley.This also affects wildlife via natural nut and berry foliage and vegetation. Acorns, hickories, walnuts, pecans are already budding.Every year there is a variance or give-off between increasing warmth and the occasional hard freeze and frosts as we go through March. But a wet snow event combined with a hard freeze is tough on trees. Again, not unusual, but an event like this does have a big impact.I might add the exceptional above average temperatures from February aren't helping matters leading into a bitter cold and snowy stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Here's an interesting graphic from MRX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Morristown TN 158 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-101900- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee- Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington- Including the cities of Murphy, Hayesville, Oneida, La Follette, Tazewell, Sneedville, Rogersville, Kingsport, Bristol, Mountain City, Wartburg, Clinton, Oak Ridge, Maynardville, Rutledge, Morristown, Newport, Cosby, Greeneville, Cedar Creek, Johnson City, Erwin, Elizabethton, Roan Mountain, Kingston, Lenoir City, Knoxville, Dandridge, Maryville, Cades Cove, Sevierville, Gatlinburg, Dunlap, Pikeville, Dayton, Decatur, Athens, Madisonville, Coker Creek, Jasper, Chattanooga, Cleveland, Benton, Ducktown, Jonesville, Wise, Norton, Gate City, Lebanon, and Abingdon 158 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017 /1258 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017/ ...Widespread Snowfall expected Saturday night into Sunday Morning with much colder air anticipated over the weekend into next week... Winter will return this weekend as a system brings widespread snowfall to the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow accumulations along and north of I-40 will be in the 2-5 inch range with locally higher amounts above 3500 feet. Elsewhere, expect accumulations of 1-3 inches will be possible. The snow will be heavy enough to cause scattered to numerous travel issues across the region late Saturday into early Sunday. Temperatures should warm enough on Sunday to alleviate most travel issues by Sunday afternoon. In addition, much colder temperatures are expected next week with morning lows in the 20s most morning with teens possible in NE TN and SW VA. Please stay tuned for further updates over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Excellent write-ups(this and the above) by MRX.... FXUS64 KMRX 092003 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 303 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017 .Long Term...(Friday night through Wednesday)... Much colder air will continue to flow into our from the northwest as we move into the weekend setting us up for some winter precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. A shortwave will be diving out of the northern Great Plains towards our area and a low south of us tracks to the northeast. In addition there will be atmospheric divergence above us as we sit in the right rear quadrant of an upper level jet leading to another favorable synoptic ingredient. Precipitation will move in from the west/northwest Saturday night and will initially begin as rain for most of the forecast area. As temperatures drop overnight it will transition to snow...Forecast soundings suggest that the transition will come relatively quickly once temperatures drop low enough and we should hopefully not really see much in the way of icy precipitation. With recent warm temperatures the ground will be pretty warm which could help melt initial snowfall... However, with this event occurring at night and some moderate to even briefly heavy snowfall the melting process on the surface could quickly end. There is a wide model spread when it comes to snowfall totals which leads to a decreased confidence in this aspect of the forecast. The NAM and the GFS are more bullish with snowfall amounts while the SREF and ECMWF are lighter. NAM/GFS have more moisture in the atmosphere to work with and also have moderate to heavy snowfall around midnight through the early morning hours. Have not bitten off on the higher amounts since model spread is pretty wide and with the (very few) winter events this year the GFS/NAM have tended to back off a bit as the event draws closer. Snow should quickly exit our area by midday on Sunday and we should actually be able to see the sun for a while. Another trough will swing through the northern part of the country and a front will sweep through Monday night/Tuesday. This will bring another round winter weather, but model differences on the timing of the track of this system make confidence pretty low for the Monday night/Tuesday system. We will dry out again after this second system, but the cooler temperatures will stick around through the end of the work week. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 35 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I look to be in a good spot in N Knox Co but with 48 out still I'm not holding my breath. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Right. I think I was in a 14" bullseye last night. Now, I am much less. I think we see some minor changes as the entirety of the energy comes into the West coast tonight. Once sampled, I think the forecast gets locked down pretty quick, but might not be until tomorrow night. Overall, I still like the I-40 corridor northward. The MRX graphic is in line w my thinking. I think Spring and longer days might add a bit of extra juice to the system. All going to depend on how much precip we have to work with...I think the cold will be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The 18z GFS is even interesting now for Tuesday. Big phase on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 At this point I am about to hang up my hat, after 3 consecutive losses in snowfall across three runs from multiple models. Perhaps I should be happy to see snow on the projected screen but I can only look at it now with a bit of numbing disappointment as even though it's March, standards will of course rise when there is a winter storm showing up later in the week. After 0z if I see no improvement I won't punt the system but I may pretty much call a (metaphorical) Hail Mary, cross my fingers, ignore the computer models, and hope for the best while expecting nothing. I think this also applies to (Kentucky) as well. Most of us aren't meteorologists and we generally speaking do not have much experience with it as a whole but there is a certain rush to predicting what will occur and seeing yourself in that digital bullseye! I see myself as a fan of weather and its processes as I believe many others here do especially the lurkers. If This Winter storm is a complete bust then if what the models are hinting at are right AND THAT'S A BIG IF... those of us in and east of the Cumberlands may get a 2nd shot on Tuesday.I should also bring up the cold is one thing that isn't in short supply that's for sure especially for March and some lows in the teens will be quite a shock to the system. Even up here I noticed on my way to school that the Dogwood trees had bloomed much to my surprise. I'm sure somebody will at least get hit with something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 18z GFS was similar to 12z. 3-6 inches across the area. These systems tend to be less south and west than modeling shows. Last January 20th when my area got 6.5 inches, only the RGEM ever got the precip axis even close. The others had the max snow south and west of my area. So that's something to consider if you're in the more northern areas. I also usually add 50 miles north on almost every precip shield on overrunning events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozzyman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I might have to go snow chasing in NETN since things are trending downward for SWVA in terms of accumulation. It's rarely a good thing when you're in the bullseye 5+ days out as we all know too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: 18z GFS was similar to 12z. 3-6 inches across the area. These systems tend to be less south and west than modeling shows. Last January 20th when my area got 6.5 inches, only the RGEM ever got the precip axis even close. The others had the max snow south and west of my area. So that's something to consider if you're in the more northern areas. I also usually add 50 miles north on almost every precip shield on overrunning events. I'm in White House Tennessee and I just have a feeling this system is going to over perform compared to what the models are showing. Right now the heaviest precipitation is just a little to far south but it wouldn't take much if the models are off just a tad. As someone else stated the cold will be there in the northern part of Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I might have to go snow chasing in NETN since things are trending downward for SWVA in terms of accumulation. It's rarely a good thing when you're in the bullseye 5+ days out as we all know too well.Too early. We're still 48 hrs out. If the downstream block is even slightly further north and east, SWVA could take a big hit. Keep in mind, it will be colder and any precip will be all snow. Timing is also an issue. I'm not confident on west and south trends. Typically you want to be on the northern edge on a system like this if you want the bigger snow totals. The big issue with the initial system is overall QPF. The Euro is admittedly too dry. It's still too early to throw in the towel for significant accumulations but 2-5 inches is still very possible as far northeast as Wytheville and Blacksburg on the initial event. Also, you may get more on the second event than areas further south into East Tn and the Eastern Tennessee Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The 18z NAM playing up a triple phase special just beyond it's range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 hours ago, Kentucky said: Ha Ha, parts of TN might hit the snow lottery twice this year, and Corbin likely gets nada. You don't see that often but that snow map perfectly caps off this winter for me. Happy for those that get snow though. JKL is still throwing out 3 inches for their Tennessee border counties, but I feel you on the lack of snow. 3.5 inches here is more than you've gotten this year but still the lowest total at my location ever back as far as I've got any record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Dang! Triple phase puts us in March 1993 conversation! Sent from my LG-H918 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, rbowman said: Dang! Triple phase puts us in March 1993 conversation! Sent from my LG-H918 using Tapatalk Wooaaahhhh horsey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Lol. You took the words right out of my mouth Reb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 hours ago, John1122 said: The 18z NAM playing up a triple phase special just beyond it's range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 well if that nam verifies, rip east tn power/communications for a month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 0z NAM clobbers East TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'm going with the nam it seems locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, 1234snow said: 0z NAM clobbers East TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, 1234snow said: 0z NAM clobbers East TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Stovepipe said: It's no win for me...but it definitely an improvement from last time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Last image was the Kuchera ratio method. Here is the normal 10:1 clown. Really not much difference except on the northern edges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Reb said: M Bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, 1234snow said: Last image was the Kuchera ratio method. Here is the normal 10:1 clown. Really not much difference except on the northern edges. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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