1234snow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I figured that the 12z suite may very well mirror the Euro runs from yesterday. I definitely think the NAM is overamped at this point. It doesn't have much support from the other models for that much qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, 1234snow said: I figured that the 12z suite may very well mirror the Euro runs from yesterday. I definitely think the NAM is overamped at this point. It doesn't have much support from the other models for that much qpf. Wasn't the nam right last time tho when others Sayed suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, 1234snow said: I figured that the 12z suite may very well mirror the Euro runs from yesterday. I definitely think the NAM is overamped at this point. It doesn't have much support from the other models for that much qpf. The coastal phase is very interesting. Maybe one-two punch for NE TN and SW VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Seems like the first wave is weaker because some energy holds back and the slp forms a coastal/phase on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I thing tonight's and tomorrow morning runs will be key the system will be on shore and can be sampled not laying much trust right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The coastal phase is very interesting. Maybe one-two punch for NE TN and SW VA?I'm golfing so I didn't have a chance to look but I know the runs from last night were close to a big phase for wave too. Do we get anything from the second storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 22 hours ago, 1234snow said: I'm golfing so I didn't have a chance to look but I know the runs from last night were close to a big phase for wave too. Do we get anything from the second storm? Looks to be, yes. With the models just now raising that as a possibility...tough to know where it goes. As if is, we get wrap-around/comma head snow(not the big stuff). However, if that is a real solution...my guess is that it is much stronger and gets pulled closer to the coast by the phasing energy in the Midwest. If that happens, the Plateau eastward has a chance w the second system that phases. Let's see what the Euro does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 38 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Wasn't the nam right last time tho when others Sayed suppressed Once inside of 48 it is pretty dependable IMO. It still has a bad habit of overdoing qpf. But as tnweathernut alluded to, spring systems have a habit of being stronger than modeled. I would weight the global models vs meso scale models pretty even at this range and eventually giving the nod to the short range models inside of 48. Now the question of the hour is whether we are looking at a Noreaster? Trends seem to suggest that chance...if so that is a huge change obviously but has been hinted at by the models for days. I do think the forum area sees snow w system one as the pattern will force the energy under the hp. How strong is what better sampling will tell us. The closer it has gotten to the coast, the more this second storm has shown up as a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It was March 5, 2015 when we got our last significant snowfall here in southwest TN. It's funny how the dates are so close to each other 2 years apart. March has been good to us over the years so I believe some (hopefully all of us) will see some accumulation snow. Tomorrow morning should be a fun day to check out where the models are at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I don't quite buy the weak precip field on the Euro or the heavy heavy one on the NAM but I do buy the in-between. Models are notorious for underestimating precip shields in these type events and it's the hardest aspect of their forecasts anyway. There will be jackpot areas and under performing areas. Our best hope is to have it arrive and night to maximize the potential accums. A nice cold Saturday morning will help some as well. It was forecast to be 40 here last night and got down to 31 this morning. This time of year, everything to help ground conditions helps. The UKIE isn't too far off showing the phase the CMC showed. I never quite trust the CMC as it seems to rarely win the prize, but most prizes aren't won by any model this year until we're around 24 hours out from the event. I do think we can be sure of two things at this point. The system will pass to our south and it will be cold enough to snow for a lot of the forum. Beyond that we are still just a little too far out. But looking at climo and past storms that are similar to the set up at 500mb provide a good baseline. That's why you hear mets say things like "north of 40" because that's a classic guiding line for snow/rain/heavy snow/lighter snow in these situations, and of course the almost always sure bet of higher elevations doing better. From the CPC yesterday afternoon, see soon what they are looking at today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The Euro is probably going to have a dry frontal passage at the rate it keeps going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It all came crashing down pretty quick, not surprised but thought we might really get some snow in SE KY this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The region still looks good on basically all but the Euro, and it has been a loooooooong way from being the king at the end of things this season. I'm not ready to give up on anything based on it from 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: The region still looks good on basically all but the Euro, and it has been a loooooooong way from being the king at the end of things this season. I'm not ready to give up on anything based on it from 3 days out. Agree, just seems the trend is not our friend as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Kentucky said: Agree, just seems the trend is not our friend as of late. Historically, these things trend back north as we get closer as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, EastKnox said: Historically, these things trend back north as we get closer as well. Yeah, Its gonna be close, would't have to move much to swipe se ky/tn border counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12z suite weakens the first wave to varying degrees...but only the Euro goes so putrid. But the BIG development on all major models is the development of a Miller A w hybrid characteristics that phases w energy from the MidWest. The CMC 240h snow map is insane on Tropical Tidbits. The GFS is not far off. The Euro looks similar. There is a ton of energy in what looks like a cold seven day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 So is euro still giving valley snow ? Any one have the snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The 18z GFS had a run like the 12z CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The 12z GFS looks like this at d10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Here is the 12z Euro...similar but dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Those three 10d maps are remarkably consistent. The UKMET is there as well. They all have similar tracks but it does appear that the Euro is on its own with the lack of precip. Models have trended some in its direction but have not caved as of yet. So, only the Euro is that dry. The NAM has plenty of qpf. But the trend is weaker. How weak is the question? Now, I never discount the Euro as it has proved time after time that it is king. I now strongly suspect a weakening first wave followed by a slp that phases along the EC and tracks just over or inside of Hatteras...maybe even a bit further inland if it really wraps-up at a lower latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Don't forget. The euro has a known bias to hold energy back and flatten out the precip shield. Sent from my LG-H918 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The Euro may be correct, of any of them may be. But it's not been great this year. It got killed on the one storm that actually effected the region. The dang German model did best with that one. It's currently showing around .5 qpf as snow along the northern areas of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 18z nam kicking heavy snow in east tn valley and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 at 66 hours nam city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 18z NAM crushes most of the entire state while there is a sharp cutoff north of the TN. Kuchera maps should be over a foot in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 ouch....after a lack luster season that hurts to look at... Good for those in ETN though! The Nam doesn't seem to want to back off on the big totals. The system seems to be almost cut into two waves with the apparent low being in northern Georgia as projected. The first wave is heavier and a little further south while the second wave moves in an arch shape with lower snowfall rates. Clearly the high pressure is at work here. Anyway lets see what the GFS is cooking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 i think the nam is on to the track very well its stayed constant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Ha Ha, parts of TN might hit the snow lottery twice this year, and Corbin likely gets nada. You don't see that often but that snow map perfectly caps off this winter for me. Happy for those that get snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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