BlunderStorm Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, 1234snow said: I'm noticing a disturbing trend of lower precip amounts on the GFS across the valley. This coupled with the lower amount of the Euro really has me concerned. At 500mb I'm noticing that the shortwave is getting stretched out and more positive tilted as it moves through the area. Something to watch for as the 12z runs roll in. After last night I was almost sold on the Euro improving for us with the NAM, CMC, and GFS going for us. I couldn't have been more wrong. Firstly I wonder how significant the increase in accuracy is once on land. Secondly, I wonder if the GEFS and GFS weakening is just a blip or a downward trend agreeing to the Euro. Thirdly, When exactly does the system make landfall and on which run could we expect theses changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Nam 12z @66 snow totals at 69 still snowimg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Snow totals at 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS estimated totals at 12z. Pretty good look for the whole state really. Model ► GFS Zoom ► Continental US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Mrwolf1972 said: Snow totals at 79 I think I like your Map better Wolf, LOL. Those are some big numbers across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12z NAM Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 That's a nice heavy band of snow across the bottom portion of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looks like a fairly decent event for somebody in the forum area to score. I don't trust the NAM. It has a bias of being too amped. That could actually push the precip axis north and overdo amounts. The Euro seems too weak...but given the Euro vs the field, I would usually take the Euro. It is not what it used to be though. Some of the high resolution NAM runs at 3k and 4k do show that weak precip shield...but IMO they are almost too finely tuned. Right now we are looking for trends on the 12z guidance. We are almost in the range of the RGEM. The energy will be sampled better today. How long does it take the new data to get into the models? Not sure. Some energy is sitting in the northern Rockies as we speak. The lion's share begins arriving in a couple of hours and will take about 24 hours to get all of it over NA. So, I suspect some minor tweaks will be on tap, I also suspect the cold air will be overmodeled as hit has been for months. That means the precip axis will reach a southern terminus at some point on modeling. Then, as models adjust to the cold potentially not making it as far forecast...the axis rebounds a short wobble northward. Still, no matter the wobble....looks like a good chance for some folks in the forum area to score some bonus snow. Personally, I am rooting for southern locals of the forum area if the trend southward continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just looking at the 12z GFS...at 48 the energy is a bit sharper than 6z. Maybe we see another southern jog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12z GFS at 60 seems a bit slower a hair south...maybe a tad weaker. Next slide will tell us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 @66 the snow axis is about 10-15 miles south of 6z. Strength looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 at 72 it looked pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12z GFS totals waiting on CMC now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 @72 and 78...the system has less energy near the coast or it may be slower by a hair. Pretty consistent run compared to 12z. Southeast (edit) TN gains some QPF and southwest VA loses some. SW VA prob loses a bit as the slp does not gain that smidgeon of latitude that it does on 6z just as it passes to our south towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 Haven't compared side by side (so going off memory), but the new GFS looks Euroish to me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, *Flash* said: Apparently, Paul Heggen (WSMV) is going with the RPM which puts most of I-40 (at least in middle Tennessee) under 1". I don't blame him for siding with that model for now. Still, perhaps some of you better understand the nuances with the RPM. Skew-T profiles coming off the 12z GFS suggest it won't take much dynamic cooling for initial rain/mix to switch to snow; however, the RPM keeps I-40 and points south mostly rain apart from a few hours of light snow on the tale end. Between 54 & 60, I just don't get that vibe. I know it's easy to use 40 as a line of demarcation, but it seems more evidence points to this being a northern 3/4th's special, not a northern 1/2 special. I like Paul. However, the middle TN mets often overuse/overplay the "north of 40" thing. Sure it works at times, but anybody watching these models run knows there is potentially a much different possibility going on. Even the NWS does it at times if you read the AFDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Yep. The GFS has more QPF but the track is almost identical to the 0z Euro. Also, don't sleep on the energy coming into the forum area righ behind this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Actually, the tracks look pretty similar on most major models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It looked like northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama lost some precip on these latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just a guess, but looks like the CMC will make a very slight jog south based on the 24h panel. check that...looks pretty similar at 42 if not a bit flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 CMC is significantly weaker over all but the southern areas of the forum area. Trend appears to be ever so slightly south and weaker for the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Whoa. This is going to be a much different run of the CMC. The first wave was flatter and the slp held back. Closed off at 90 over Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Slip slidin away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12z bombs snow on nc valley still gets 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, *Flash* said: I agree. I met Paul at SWAD in 2015 and he's super down to earth. Even if the conservative approach seems like an outlier, more often than not, it works out for BNA (last year being a notable exception). Right now I'm torn if I want to bunker down in Kingston Springs, Spring Hill or Brentwood, but I'll make that call tomorrow since there's still subtle variances in track to iron out. No doubt the conservative approach is what on air folks should do at this lead time. I just get tired of the "more north and east" mantra that the Nashville mets use. I get that it often works out that way, but they beat it to death even when the models show otherwise. Wow at what the CMC is doing in NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 That was a wild, wild run of the CMC. Two major EC storms inside of 10 days. Very similar to the 18z GFS last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12z UKMET has energy in the northern GOM that phases w energy in Wisconsin. John, would be interested in your take on this scenario of a weakening first wave followed by a coastal. Have to think if this is trend...no way this is worked-out on the models yet. Could we get a phase early enough and just west enough? I am thinking potential track just inside the coast as this might actually be a stronger storm if real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 I noticed a weakening trend with the line of showers coming through tonight and tomorrow morning in modeling over the last couple of days. It didn't look all that impressive from just 24-48 hours ago. Now I see mentions of severe thunderstorms and heavier precipitation. This won't have anything to do with what is coming Saturday/Saturday night, but it is something to keep in mind regarding how fickle strengthening or weakening can be from just a short period out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12z gefs still looks good almost the same as the 06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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