Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12 CMC slower but same outlook at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Bulls-eye! The 2nd system really got its act together this time around on the GFS here is the kuchera total when all is said and done from both systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Oddly, the DGEX is similar to the GFS there, at 18z it showed another 3-5 inches falling in the area from 84-192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Pretty amazing to go all winter with nada here in Corbin. Now seems we might have 3 chances for snow...back to back to back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 A 3rd sneaky clipper-like system between hour 162-180 on 0z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The Canadian is going to be very good for almost the entire forum again this run. Slower system and it really is putting down a nice snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Yep, Canadian is really giving Nashville a dumping this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Canadian ends up here. Far eastern areas get down sloped, which is why they end up with lower totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 Not buying the downslope for northeast TN (at this point). Doesn't make a lot of sense given the surface features... winds would probably be mostly from the E or ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Wouldn't let me C&P it http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 This is from the second system that effects areas of the forum a few days after this one passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 32 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Not buying the downslope for northeast TN (at this point). Doesn't make a lot of sense given the surface features... winds would probably be mostly from the E or ENE The Canadian has the 850 winds on the Eastern side blowing in from almost the due south at 78-84hrs. They are blowing right over the mountains and down into the NEValley. I suspect that's the cause of the downsloping it's depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 This mean is huge. There must be some monster individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The five and ten day 0z GEFS means are robust...I am out of memory space if somebody wants to post those. edit...John is a ninja! Thanks, man. The ten day looks pretty good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 This as about as good as you'll ever see. Most of the forum gets hit on every single panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 That is one of the only times I've seen a mean like that and it didn't involve misses and huge hits to skew it. There's no monster 15+ inch totals to boost the mean, just every panel is rock steady with almost the exact same outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 240h snowfall mean for the 0z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Nothing may ever match March of 1960, but we may talk about March of 2017 for quite a while if the models are correct in their depiction of the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Euro came in flat/drier/further south compared to the other models and it's prior runs. Has the system 100 miles or so off the Louisiana/Alabama coast in the Gulf, rather than hugging the Gulf as it had been. Not got great maps but looked like a 1-3 inch event along the 40 corridor with a bit more in the Eastern Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 NAM keeps the same general idea of an almost region wide moderate to heavy snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 06z GFS was very similar to the 00z. Possibly a bit heavier on snow totals in the NE areas. All in all from the overnight, Euro was the least snowy, Canadian the most, NAM and GFS somewhere in the middle of those two. UKMET/ICON etc will come in range later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS para looks warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 49 minutes ago, Reb said: GFS para looks warm My para is still from yesterday on tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: My para is still from yesterday on tidbits I figured it was an overnight run, oops. Good to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 hours ago, John1122 said: NAM keeps the same general idea of an almost region wide moderate to heavy snow event. Huge difference from the earlier Canadian that had so much downsloping in the eastern mountains. I'll take this one. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I'm noticing a disturbing trend of lower precip amounts on the GFS across the valley. This coupled with the lower amount of the Euro really has me concerned. At 500mb I'm noticing that the shortwave is getting stretched out and more positive tilted as it moves through the area. Something to watch for as the 12z runs roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 IMO anything more than 3-4" the Bradford Pears are gonna take a beating. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I'm noticing a disturbing trend of lower precip amounts on the GFS across the valley. This coupled with the lower amount of the Euro really has me concerned. At 500mb I'm noticing that the shortwave is getting stretched out and more positive tilted as it moves through the area. Something to watch for as the 12z runs roll in. Just finding a positive in this. Less moisture could mean colder. So higher rates and colder ground temps. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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