Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 closer look on 12z cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Wow I can't believe my eyes on the CMC!!! I'm working so can't look at details but seems to be the best run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, 1234snow said: Wow I can't believe my eyes on the CMC!!! I'm working so can't look at details but seems to be the best run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 12z gefs love to see the panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 That Canadian run is beautiful. It will help a little bit with accumulation potential if it gets below freezing across the area Friday night. My forecast low is 29, the ground is very warm regardless, but as mentioned, rates trump everything, especially when the snowfall happens later in the evening and at night. Right now I'd still feel more comfortable being in the S. Kentucky/SWVA area of our forum. I've just seen too many of these events be north of the the best model runs but the door looks to be opening wider for further south areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The GFES has the shot after this one too. This is an amazing mean for any time of year, let alone March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Individual members of the GEFS. Some near misses and some monsters. Every single member shows at least a small portion of our forum area in the 2+ inches range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Mrwolf1972 said: closer look on 12z cmc Thanks for sharing Wolf, I've been stewing all morning because of how the southern line of the storm was looking. This run looks much better for me in west Tennessee. It would be awesome to get one more good snow before the Temps start to ratchet up. Does anyone think this system might continue to dip farther south? BTW-This map looks great for you guys down in Chattanooga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 If the high verifies at 1050+ it may get cold further south and we end up with the Canadian solution. FWIW my favorite short range model, the RGEM, is showing the high at 1052. If you look back at the maps of some of our most impressive snow events, a 1050 high shows up in the upper midwest. Right now the features at 500mb are set up in such a way that there shouldn't be any major northward trend at all from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: If the high verifies at 1050+ it may get cold further south and we end up with the Canadian solution. FWIW my favorite short range model, the RGEM, is showing the high at 1052. If you look back at the maps of some of our most impressive snow events, a 1050 high shows up in the upper midwest. Right now the features at 500mb are set up in such a way that there shouldn't be any major northward trend at all from here on out. Yes, I agree. With that MONSTER trough in the northeast this can't really gain altitude. Even a more robust low would likely be a fairly snowy solution for parts of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 At this point I being in the northerly portion of the forum don't want to see it trending any further south. At this rate by tomorrow the precip shield will have passed me to the south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, BlunderStorm said: At this point I being in the northerly portion of the forum don't want to see it trending any further south. At this rate by tomorrow the precip shield will have passed me to the south... You need to cheer on a healthier wave.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The cold air associated with this is amazing. The GFS pops some -60 degree temps in Northern Canada and 25-30 below towards Northern North Dakota. That's bitter cold by January standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Right now I'm more then satisfied with what I'm seeing especially from the ensembles. The high pressure is key to who gets hit as has been mentioned multiple times. I have to say I am quite surprised to now see Chattanooga and even Memphis with the possibility of being in the snow. 12z from the GFS did concern me as to the possibility of the precip shield being south of me though. It is not a matter of what I'm seeing now but rather what I'm assuming occurs in later runs. WHich is a more southerly track then this and a less robust precip shield overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Euro clown from twitter. General 3-5 inches across a good portion of the forum. Very similar to the GFS outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Euro p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 That is a pretty good model suite for the forum area. Any snow after the stretch we have had after the first event is a huge bonus. Decent signal at this range needless to say. Great discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The CMC depiction is the desired outcome for most of the forum area no doubt. The Euro is somewhat concerning. A continual south shift and a somewhat dampening out it appears. The Euro depiction actually looks similar to the January 20 one of last year. Remember that one ? Although, Models had it dumping south central KY with 6-8", It progressed in similar fashion weakening as it came ese. As y'all know, a general 4-8" fell throughout the area from Lee county, VA to Knox. to Bristol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: The CMC depiction is the desired outcome for most of the forum area no doubt. The Euro is somewhat concerning. A continual south shift and a somewhat dampening out it appears. The Euro depiction actually looks similar to the January 20 one of last year. Remember that one ? Although, Models had it dumping south central KY with 6-8", It progressed in similar fashion weakening as it came ese. As y'all know, a general 4-8" fell throughout the area from Lee county, VA to Knox. to Bristol. the cmc has held fast the others were out in lala land till yesterday I think the euro will come back a little north west as we get closer but time will tell I still got 4 inches on the 20th so ethier way im cool. I was following and tracking when it was just the cmc just had a feeling we was due for one more this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Yeah true wolf. Actually left couple words out, lol. That was my last point irt the jan. 20 storm. I remember forecasters saying 1-3 here as it was already in progress and it just kept piling up. I measured just under 5 here. 7" was measured just south of Rose Hill in SW, Lee county. not far from Tenn. line. A strip from about Mboro, Ky to JC, Tn had that 6-8" area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 eps snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 hp on 18z nam still 1052 at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 18z Nam is depicting an aggressive sleet storm for southern Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 nam way to far north its way behind the rest of the models it looks like the gfs from 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 This sums up the Nam this time around pretty well imo. This is a win for Kentucky as it is for SWVA as well. Which were bypassed by the Euro. I also included the Kuchera snowfall totals up to the point where the run ended. It is still snowing in the eastern half of the forum area If what *flash* says is true and it is likely to be colder. This would be a big win for our forum area in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The NAM has the weakest high as the storm is crossing, and it ends up being the furthest north due to less supression from the North. It really dumps on Kentucky in to SWVA with wide spread 8-10 inches. 3-5 in the border counties, trailing off fast below that. The NAM is occasionally a little heavy on the precip rates it depicts and beyond 48 it's not the most reliable model but it's path could easily happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 18z at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 the dew points are in the low 20's when the storm comes through with that heavy of moisture they don't go above 32 in Knoxville I think it will stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Colder air will move in behind the front, then models show an upper trough swinging across the area and a weak surface low moving by to our south late Saturday through early Sunday. While the system may initially start out as rain, thermal profiles suggest a quick changeover to snow after sunset Saturday night. Accumulating snow will be possible, especially north of I-40 and in the mountains. Areas south of I-40 may see some accumulating snow, but confidence is much too low at this point to indicate anything more than a rain/snow mix. It appears that the last few runs of the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler, indicating a better potential for snow in our forecast area, but there`s still plenty of time for finer details to change. Keep in mind, this event is still 4 days out. that's from Knoxville nws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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