Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 hours ago, John1122 said: The Euro looks absolutely great tbh. Wide spread 3-6 inches for all but the southern parts of the forum. Dyersburg 3-5 Clarksville 3-5, Nashville 3-5, Crossville 3-5, Knoxville 3-5, Tri 3-6, SEKy 3-4, SWVA 3-5. If you border AL/GA/MS you basically get shut out with that line rising as you go west. 0z EPS appears to support the op as well. Also seems that the EPS has a second system a couple of days laters as a Nor'easter. The second storm idea is now on all three models either as a Miller A/hybrid/Miller B. The EPS. On wxbell, the slides are missing for the second storm from days 6.5-8. Looks like a coastal of sorts judging by low locations. Great discussion overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 37 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 0z EPS appears to support the op as well. Also seems that the EPS has a second system a couple of days laters as a Nor'easter. The second storm idea is now on all three models either as a Miller A/hybrid/Miller B. The EPS. On wxbell, the slides are missing for the second storm from days 6.5-8. Looks like a coastal of sorts judging by low locations. Great discussion overnight. Generally speaking, this is why I am so infatuated with the weather, never ceases to surprise any of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Calling out big March storms for our area, don't forget about March 1993!Sent from my LG-H918 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Probably setting myself up for a ,but even i'm getting excited now.But the extreme cut-off the models have is still concerning to me,at least for Mid Tn.But even the Para is showing a southern shift.Surface temps will put a big dent in accum., but i wont complain about seeing snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The Nam is starting off a little discouraging as it becomes relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I always have to remember myself that clippers are notoriously fickle...meaning they have a tendency to jog north at the last minute. I have seen clippers forecast for TRI that went more shallow than modeled four days out...and moved to northern KY and W VA. That said, there are a ton of moving parts w this including a potential storm right behind it out of the GOM. Cold high pressure is pressing in from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Glad to see all major models this morning still depicting an accumulating snowfall. It doesn't have to happen of course, but it's nice to have an event to track after this miserable winter (for snow lovers). This time of the year it will be all about the rates. Heavy snow will fairly easily accumulate. If it's not accumulating it's not really heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 MRX not impressed. This is from today's long term forecast update: Colder air will move in behind the front, then models show an upper trough swinging across the area and a weak surface low moving by to our south late Saturday through early Sunday. Thermal profiles suggest snow will be possible especially north and mountains, although details that far out are still rather uncertain. Will keep mention of possible snow in the HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Maybe should clean-up the clipper comment. It is clipper like...those upper level troughs are notorious for being modeled too far south in this area. That said, the cold hp might be underdone as a counter. Probably more correct to call it northern stream energy or a wave. And certainly am glad to have something to track. March systems are fun because they often are under modeled in strength and hold surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 You have to wonder if there is a big shift left? I am confident there will be a snow storm somewhere, but is that TN into NC or Kentucky into WV/VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Would like to wait for 12Z Euro/GFS to post, but got stuff this afternoon. Last 24hr models have consolidated on the track. 12Z NAM Para is quite dynamic, but will manage expectations with the NAM Op. Verbatim snow develops Saturday in Western Kentucky tracking toward northern Middle Tenn. Upper Plateau is looking good Saturday night regardless of any model wobbles. Then Knoxville is in the game and TRI looks great! Models have consolidated on general tracking themes, so I would not expect a huge move either way. However the boundary layer will remain critical for Nashville and Knoxville. BNA probably has a better chance of dynamic cooling. Knox boundary layer is always a whip in the Valley. ATTM I expect both to change over pretty quickly to snow, esp in the evening, but it's no guarantee. Upper Plateau to TRI into southwest VA looks more certain. 500 mb PVA tracks overhead. With a Miller A that's too far north; but, with this slider it is probably OK. Best 700 mb lift is at/south of I-40 and 850 mb WAA/low is south of I-40, both good if one wants snow. Again I see this as an I-40 north event not including MEM. Jackson, TN is a really tough call esp daytime. If it pans out I might travel because CHA blanks in any scenario I can imagine. Definitely rooting for our friends up along and north of I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Good analysis Jeff. I am about 15 miles S of i40 so not getting my hopes up. Nice to have something to track anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Would like to wait for 12Z Euro/GFS to post, but got stuff this afternoon. Last 24hr models have consolidated on the track. 12Z NAM Para is quite dynamic, but will manage expectations with the NAM Op. Verbatim snow develops Saturday in Western Kentucky tracking toward northern Middle Tenn. Upper Plateau is looking good Saturday night regardless of any model wobbles. Then Knoxville is in the game and TRI looks great! Models have consolidated on general tracking themes, so I would not expect a huge move either way. However the boundary layer will remain critical for Nashville and Knoxville. BNA probably has a better chance of dynamic cooling. Knox boundary layer is always a whip in the Valley. ATTM I expect both to change over pretty quickly to snow, esp in the evening, but it's no guarantee. Upper Plateau to TRI into southwest VA looks more certain. 500 mb PVA tracks overhead. With a Miller A that's too far north; but, with this slider it is probably OK. Best 700 mb lift is at/south of I-40 and 850 mb WAA/low is south of I-40, both good if one wants snow. Again I see this as an I-40 north event not including MEM. Jackson, TN is a really tough call esp daytime. If it pans out I might travel because CHA blanks in any scenario I can imagine. Definitely rooting for our friends up along and north of I-40. Thanks for your thoughts, Jeff. They are always appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Nam compared to the GFS is a little warmer but still looks great this far out to see it in agreement of placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Very early trends on the 12z GFS are for the high nosing down from Canada into the northern US to be stronger by about 2mb. This is for hour 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 GFS a touch deeper with the cold through 54. Major feature placements looks really similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Ridging in the west a touch stronger at 66. trough in the northeast/se canada a touch deeper/nicely anchored. Both a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 By 72, looking at 500, the ridging out west is a little stronger, but also a little further east and the shortwave in the midwest doesn't appear to be as robust. Still good precip breaking out in the heartland and coming SE. Troughing in the northeast still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Wow, at 84 the surface lights up the entire state of TN, except for extreme southern TN with snow. Going to be a pretty snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: By 72, looking at 500, the ridging out west is a little stronger, but also a little further east and the shortwave in the midwest doesn't appear to be as robust. Still good precip breaking out in the heartland and coming SE. Troughing in the northeast still looks good. Definite S trend,snow in the southern valley now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The GFS depicts snowfall straddling the southern border of Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 A touch weaker with the feature, but this probably allows it to be a little colder as it comes through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Wow this is a great run...WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 It's also probably a bit more south b/c the trough in the northeast is a touch stronger. All of this works together of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Maybe the 2nd wave will come S also,we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Not bad overall,i expected a shift N not S..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Canadian will be interesting. Looks healthy on the old black and white maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 CMC looking a touch colder at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 CMC 24 hour Snowfall Map through 102. Looks like Chattanooga gets in on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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