Mrwolf1972 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 its is funny noaa don't know what to call for I have never seen best case scenario and worst case put out by noaa until this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'm glad for folks in central and southern Tennessee getting snow that haven't seen it in a while. As for the big swing in modeling throughout the week to the actual event, things literally went south in a hurry for KTYS and KTRI.Also, though still early, the Tuesday potential phase and east coast bomber is starting to look too coastal and too warm. Afraid it looks like a very cold rain with sleet/mix garbage for the Eastern Valley except for above 3500 feet. Both systems may end up a horrible tease for a blowtorch winter. The hard freezes will do their damage to vegetation despite depriving us of snow.It's still early to throw in the towel. The phase needs to be further WSW and colder, but it's not looking good. Looks like one to remember for the Mid-Atlantic region, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 can someone explain this model rain on top snow in middle rain on bottom shouldn't all to the north of that snow line be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 if this model is off by 20-30 miles ill get nailed in loudon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: can someone explain this model rain on top snow in middle rain on bottom shouldn't all to the north of that snow line be snow. You need the heavier precip to drop the temp. If t stays light it may not be able to completely change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 can someone explain this model rain on top snow in middle rain on bottom shouldn't all to the north of that snow line be snow.Dynamic cooling because of rates is producing snowSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Precipitation breaking out in N Arkansas looks further north than I expected. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 HRRR doesn't like Tennessee at all nowSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I tell ya, southern Tennessee may do pretty good. Radar looks great. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ive been in and out of the bands in middle TN all day and have yet to encounter a rain drop. Drove thru the heavy band near Nashville this morning. It was ripping between Murfreesboro and Lebanon. Caught back up with it in southern mid TN later. Both times there was some sleet/snow pellets at the onset. Now getting a light sleet/snow mix with the next batch. Edit: right after I posted went outside to a rain/sleet mix. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, Coach B said: Ive been in and out of the bands in middle TN all day and have yet to encounter a rain drop. Drove thru the heavy band near Nashville this morning. It was ripping between Murfreesboro and Lebanon. Caught back up with it in southern mid TN later. Both times there was some sleet/snow pellets at the onset. Now getting a light sleet/snow mix with the next batch. Awesome. Glad you all are seeing some snow. Radar looked good out there earlier today. Nice to hear some reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 Wish we had someone from Dyer, TN. Looks like it's absolutely ripping it there right now.......congrats to everyone seeing snow. Take pictures so we can live vicariously through your good fortunes... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Am I imagining things or is that a trip of returns south of St. Louis diving south? Is that another piece of energy that may be phasing with the southern system? Sent from my LG-H918 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 17 minutes ago, rbowman said: Am I imagining things or is that a trip of returns south of St. Louis diving south? Is that another piece of energy that may be phasing with the southern system? Sent from my LG-H918 using Tapatalk Looks to be the piece of energy pushing this thing to the south, needs to slow down a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It will be interesting to see what form this first band of precip takes as it moves into the area. Dual pol says it is rain, but I've not seen any rain at all today, just sleet. Temp is 37 with RH of 70%. Wet bulb is 32 on the nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tellicowx1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 half dollar flakes and temp down to 36 now here in Monroe Co in southeast TNSent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 half dollar flakes and temp down to 36 now here in Monroe Co in southeast TNSent from my SM-S820L using TapatalkCongrats Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tellicowx1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Congrats Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Prowe never did start out as rain...I'm only at 950', I say it pouring snow on top of the skyway at the NC lineSent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 16 minutes ago, tellicowx1 said: Its actually pouring down in the valley floors already,but yes Im being told the Skyway is already snow covered we never did start out as rain...I'm only at 950', I say it pouring snow on top of the skyway at the NC line Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCVol Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 What are the chances the system in Missouri slows down and doesn't push the precip south? and will this band coming thru the midstate have enough moisture to survive the plateau? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, JCVol said: What are the chances the system in Missouri slows down and doesn't push the precip south? and will this band coming thru the midstate have enough moisture to survive the plateau? JCVol, the radar returns and models really like the areas south of I-40 for accumulating snow. Looks like precip is on an ESE trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 What is the likelihood snowfall from the 2nd system breaks through? Most models suggest it will be just a tad too warm but could dynamic cooling cool the atmosphere just enough? Am I grasping at straws here? UPDATE: On the Nam 3km in particular the Rainfall/ Snowfall begins 6-8 P.M. and ends 11 P.M.-1 A.M. For Southeast Kentucky, Far Southwest Virginia, and Northeast Tennessee. All versions of the Nam roughly agree to this. The GFS has the precipitation coming a little later and lighter with no snow from this end of the eastern continental divide the CMC is similar to this however cold rainfall lingers longer before transitioning to the NW flow snow and colder temperatures swooping in for Wednesday. The NavGem while only viewed as precipitation without differentiation between liquid and frozen seems to suggest precipitation further inland than what it was previously showing at the same hour with some potential surprising amounts of snowfall on the back end which would no doubt be the white stuff. The RGEM seems a little more encouraging for such a desired event as it begins to fall into range. This is what I have deciphered from the models thus far from my unexperienced perspective. My hope is for a more westerly track of the low to our east as Carver mentioned and cloud cover over the course of Tuesday to keep temps low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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