Runman292 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'm interested in seeing if the 12z Euro holds serve from last night's run, or starts trending back to a drier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: I think the real big story the next ten days will not be the snow anyway but the cold. The cold will rival or beat the cold experienced in March of 2007, by my research but I could be mistaken! If we go the way of the 12z UKMET, the semi-stalled low over southwestern Canada is going to make for some chilly days for sure. The cold will be a story if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: If we go the way of the 12z UKMET, the semi-stalled low over southwestern Canada is going to make for some chilly days for sure. The cold will be a story if that verifies. I am going off of the GFS, which is an issue sometimes as well, is the UKMET colder than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 the lp position on the 12z euro is same as last nights cant see the snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: I am going off of the GFS, which is an issue sometimes as well, is the UKMET colder than that? The 12z GFS is cold for almost all of its 16 day panels on WxBell FWIW. I like the UKMET because it can give a clue for the Euro...and that would suggest very cold air after storm two. Just looking on the UKMET the slp position and strength supports your argument. I would have a tough time finding a warm wx model after these storms. Its temp maps go to 72 hours while its 500 maps go to 144. So, I am extrapolating from the 500 maps. Not sure if you have this link. I like classic mode. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The 12z Euro through 60 hours is slightly suppressed and south of it's 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Storm 1...12z Euro. Southern TN still sitting in a nice spot. Like I said, if it is not going to snow here, hopefully our southern forum areas can score some rare, late season snow. The southern periphery of these northern stream systems is always sketchy like Mr Bob stated earlier. Hopefully, this works out for folks there. Like I said, want to see somebody in the forum area score some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GFS is cold for almost all of its 16 day panels on WxBell FWIW. I like the UKMET because it can give a clue for the Euro...and that would suggest very cold air after storm two. Just looking on the UKMET the slp position and strength supports your argument. I would have a tough time finding a warm wx model after these storms. Its temp maps go to 72 hours while its 500 maps go to 144. So, I am extrapolating from the 500 maps. Not sure if you have this link. I like classic mode. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Thanks for the links! I used to have a subscription through WeatherBell but let it lapsed as I am still frustrated with JB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Thanks for the links! I used to have a subscription through WeatherBell but let it lapsed as I am still frustrated with JB! Yep, I will probably let mine run-out at the end of March...the Weeklies and EPS output is what I like. Plus, their maps are nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Storm 1...12z Euro. Southern TN still sitting in a nice spot. Like I said, if it is not going to snow here, hopefully our southern forum areas can score some rare, late season snow. Yeah that was not a bad run for the southern portion of the state. That system off of the North Atlantic Coast is something else!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 36 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Yeah that was not a bad run for the southern portion of the state. That system off of the North Atlantic Coast is something else!! Goes sub 970 off the coast off Maine. Big totals are right to the spine of the Apps and extreme NE TN. The strengthening slp runs from Savannah to Hatteras. Prob 50-75 west of 0z. Precip shield is more expansive. IMO the models are only now getting a handle on this. The earlier the phase and the stronger the storm...the more west it pulls. I try not to post Euro maps, but just too good not to look at. (Mods feel free to pull it if it is out of bounds) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Wind gusts...look at those upslope angles and also the actual storm gusts. Mountains see some stronger winds even after this. Looks like a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12z EPS has light accums of 1-2" running from Jackson to Chatt...2-3 in the higher elevations south of 40. The ensemble supports the op. Good to see for you folks in the southern areas of our forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Here's what MRX says. . . Not sure what model they are using. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 18z nam looks stronger at 18hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looks like the NAM is going to bounce back with heavy snow along the KY border areas. I swear models are insanely inconsistent this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Bizarre run, rain to the north and south of a band of heavy snow, that arrives much earlier than prior model runs. The ptype map shows heavy rain over Southern KY but the sounding forecast shows snow as the ptype. The qpf map shows nothing reaching the surface under the heavy radar echo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I don't normally post these but this really shows well what I think is more likely.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 at 30 hrs heavy band over my house in loudon @36 southern tn getting hit good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Wind gusts...look at those upslope angles and also the actual storm gusts. Mountains see some stronger winds even after this. Looks like a hurricane. Yeah it really does look like a hurricane. It's pretty intense to look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 southern valley gonna love that 18z NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: southern valley gonna love that 18z NAM run What a strange, broken up mess of a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, JayCee said: What a strange, broken up mess of a system. it gets together at the end we need it to get together earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 41 minutes ago, John1122 said: Bizarre run, rain to the north and south of a band of heavy snow, that arrives much earlier than prior model runs. The ptype map shows heavy rain over Southern KY but the sounding forecast shows snow as the ptype. The qpf map shows nothing reaching the surface under the heavy radar echo. Yeah John. Looks like it doesnt agree with itself; mixed up , lol. Not saying it's not gonna be right but, one notable fault with the Nam is it's underproducing precip(I know it tends to have a wet bias for much of the east U.S., though) for your and my area, as you noted last night regarding that rainfall. All models to some degree under do precip amounts here in Lee county 90% of the time. Wound up with .77" here from last nights system while models forecasted about half that. As far as this system, I would say we will get the shaft as south track is pretty set I think. Unfortunately, I think we will from the big one too. Hopefully the initial lp coming thru MO will take a further south track and the we could be in business without getting much from the coastal bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The end of the 18z NAM run....now that was interesting. Prob a bit over amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The 18z 12k parallel NAM brings storm 2 west of other guidance. Some decent numbers for TRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 RGEM 18z looks like the NAM 18z for snow track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 56 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The end of the 18z NAM run....now that was interesting. Prob a bit over amped. wish it would come together more south and we woulde in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'll be at a cabin in the foothills watching it snow while lounging in a hot tub drinking cold beer for this. It was just dumb luck as the trip was planned months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: wish it would come together more south and we woulde in business The 18z 12k para NAM is on WxBell and is due to replace the NAM soon per a met on the MA. It goes out to 84. It is the NAM late in its run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.