Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 storm moves to fast snow levels in valley are low moutains and nc get nailed we need a north west jog lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 it transfers energy to the coast at 51 butt he lp over the gulf never moves weird now sc gets a lot of snow to I don't know whats gonna happen weird that its so close to I hope gfs and cmc and euro can get a better grip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'm curious to see what the rgem has to say about all of this.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Stovepipe said: I'm curious to see what the rgem has to say about all of this. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I thought it looked weak at the end of its last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looks like Nashville gets dry slotted?Certainly wouldn't be the first time. I hate to say it, but I usually lean to the NAM within 48 hours. Sent from my LG-H918 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: I'm curious to see what the rgem has to say about all of this. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk what time does the 12z run on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 what time does the 12z run on it If I'm not mistaken it should be after gfs, around 11am.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 If the models continue wild swings today, the only way to call this will be a now cast watching radar returns and upstream reports. Sent from my LG-H918 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, rbowman said: If the models continue wild swings today, the only way to call this will be a now cast watching radar returns and upstream reports. Sent from my LG-H918 using Tapatalk Definitely a now cast storm. I think a narrow band of heavy snow will set up and whoever is under it could get pummeled. Could move out too fast for that though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yep. You just hope the snow rates are heavy enough to overcome the warm ground. Even then most of it will be gone Sunday afternoon. Sent from my LG-H918 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Wild swings...not sure I would call it that. It is a narrow area of focus so little things are impacting each run. But we are not talking about 200 mile swings on this. We are getting into a bad climo period for non-dynamic snow, and we are counting on a sagging cold front to bring us almost just in time cold air here in Chatt. This is fraught with peril and yes it will likely come down to a nowcast for those without elevation. This is not the most favored look for Chatt, but it has been mostly persistent. I would be more confident in Knox if the moisture is there. Recently, in these situations, the precip shield has filled farther north and covered NE Tennessee in the final runs before showtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 rggem @39 at 42 its liking the southern half of tn stays to far south for tn to get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 That low to the NW looks to be bookin it SE while energy in TX staying in place. CMC might have an interesting 2nd storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: rggem @39 at 42 its liking the southern half of tn stays to far south for tn to get snow Southwest TN is due for a nice Snow. Hopefully it pans out for us cause we didn't do as well as you all in east tn on the January storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looks Better statewide on this map. Anythings possible for this weekend I think. Model ► NAM Zoom ► Continental US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realdeal2414 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 You guys looked at anything for Mon-Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Don't get mad cause things don't look good for Nashville on that run. 80 percent of the state shows some kind of estimated snow cover on that map, so I'd say that constitutes as a better look STATEWIDE. This forum doesn't just revolve around Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'd hate to be a forecaster in the midlands of SC looking at that NAM output. It's such a narrow and intense band of accumulation. Really brings to mind the heavy early season lake effect streamers of snow that can affect upstate NY. Totally different dynamics at play, but the end result is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 gfs 48 not much snow in tn sums up our winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: gfs 48 not much snow in tn Yep...it looks like its shearing out and weakening. Not good trends if you like snow...which I do!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 WELL... I am calling a (metaphorical) Hail Mary, continuing to look over these models is nothing but strife. I will gladly be around for the NOWCAST and Observations. I end my case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattywarmnose Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 waiting on next NAM before I do anymore wishcasting....been burnt too many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Wow. A little harsh and condescending, are we? Definitely not implying the forum revolves around BNA. Might want to work on your phraseology. *Blocked* If you think that's harsh then you need to grow a pair little guy. Condescending would be you telling me that what I posted was not a better look statewide either. This forum is about sharing information with everybody, not telling someone what they posted was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 17 hours ago, John1122 said: Can anyone remember the euro making such a big jump in snow totals so close to actual storm time only for it to be wrong while other models are right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Olhausen said: 17 hours ago, John1122 said: Can anyone remember the euro making such a big jump in snow totals so close to actual storm time only for it to be wrong while other models are right? I'm not sure how I posted something but it shows someone else's name. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yes. The valentine's time system 2 years ago. 1 day before, the euro jumped to double digits snow totals for mid Tennessee. We ended up with about an inch of sleet and maybe half inch of snow on top of that. Sent from my LG-H918 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It is odd how the Euro went from nothing to all in while the other models reversed and went from all in to nothing. I won't be shocked if it's nothing here, it's just been that kind of winter, might as well cap it off with a huge disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 53 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: If you think that's harsh then you need to grow a pair little guy. Condescending would be you telling me that what I posted was not a better look statewide either. This forum is about sharing information with everybody, not telling someone what they posted was wrong. This forum prides itself on good discussion and no bickering...both of y'all either report the post or ignore it but don't get in a contest here as you will be on the sidelines for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, Mr Bob said: This forum prides itself on good discussion and no bickering...both of y'all either report the post or ignore it but don't get in a contest here as you will be on the sidelines for this event. I think the real big story the next ten days will not be the snow anyway but the cold. The cold will rival or beat the cold experienced in March of 2007, by my research but I could be mistaken! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I think wave one, unless the Euro throws us a line, is on shaky ground. The 12z UKMET certainly has an interesting look w a 999mb low siting over DELMARVA. How we get there is important and Ukie time increments leave it open for an educated guess. Looks like a slp over Missouri and the north central GOM phase along the EC. Now that the energy has been sampled...looks like that is the solution. At this point we want an earlier phase of system 2 and the system in the northern branch dig deep and a bit more most for that to happen. If the coastal is strong, that will also pull it westward. We need a stronger storm than 999. After it passes it gets pulled inland over New England/southwest Canada and then stalls. Looks to me like that would set up an upslope snow event for favored areas. What we need to pull for is an overperforming first wave followed by a coastal that goes inside Hatteras(it may do that...but just guessing it looks to go over it). The GFS at 12z looked too weak w the second feature. I suspect this may go into the low 990s or sub...just a guess. If so, it may have some room to pull back west 100 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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