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Winter 2017's Last Gasp


tnweathernut

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but gfs and nam are saying dusting to a inch that's why im wating one more run


Something had to be a miss on the NAM 6z. It can make some big swings but going from 10" to 1" on one run at 36 hours out doesn't make any sense.


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It seems like we've seen models switch places before, but it does seem strange that the Euro made that big of a swing in one run toward more moisture, and the NAM made that big of a swing to less moisture. GFS is kinda in the middle it seems.

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It seems like we've seen models switch places before, but it does seem strange that the Euro made that big of a swing in one run toward more moisture, and the NAM made that big of a swing to less moisture. GFS is kinda in the middle it seems.


Especially this close. 5 days out it happens quite often


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16 minutes ago, Reb said:

Proper sampling can kill a storm in a minute. Hopefully a glitch but hopes have been tempered no doubt

I agree, Reb.  Models really have that energy sampled well now.  Probably 12z will have even better data, especially 18z.  These northern stream systems are just fickle as heck.  March systems, as tnweathernut mentioned, can over perform at times.  If in a jam, I take the Euro vs the field.  Still very interested in storm 2 as the models do not have it nailed down.  The 0z Euro was close to something decent...was just 100 miles too far east.

 

 

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Very much looks like the models like the idea of a strong storm 2.  The less of wave 1...the more storm 2 has a chance.   I prefer storm 1 because a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.  But...a dying wave 1 does make storm 2 stronger.  It is possible we get snow from both or whiff on both.

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8 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

lp in texas a little stronger @27 is that our storm if not it don't look good at all

That will probably be storm 2.  At one point, that energy amped storm one and died off the SE coast.  Now, it is hanging back and maybe forming storm 2.  If you want to see some interesting dynamic, toggle over to 500vort.  Plenty of moving parts. Always amazed to see that wee have a model that can show that.

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2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That will probably be storm 2.  At one point, that energy amped storm one and died off the SE coast.  Now, it is hanging back and maybe forming storm 2.  Potential is there for three pieces of energy to phase.  If you want to see some interesting dynamic, toggle over to 500vort.  Plenty of moving parts. Always amazed to see that wee have a model that can show that.

fingers crossed we might have a good run this run is slow today

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4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That will probably be storm 2.  At one point, that energy amped storm one and died off the SE coast.  Now, it is hanging back and maybe forming storm 2.  If you want to see some interesting dynamic, toggle over to 500vort.  Plenty of moving parts. Always amazed to see that wee have a model that can show that.

Scratch that....I am just completely off w the TX piece of energy.  It will go into system one and it does die off the SE coast.  The energy, which can be seen coming in just to the south of the TX system forms storm 2.  Sorry about that.  Just now getting up to speed.

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