John1122 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This was the NAM forecast for the event from 24 hours ago. Killed the GFS and is much closer to what is unfolding and even it is underdone in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 MRX has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the mountains. It sounds like they'll be going the advisory route everywhere else, as they are thinking 1-3 inches outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6z suites came in fairly qpf deprived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Gonna wait on next run but got towel in hand from blizzard to dusting what a whirlwind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Gonna wait on next run but got towel in hand from blizzard to dusting what a whirlwind Euro went from nothing to 5-7" across E Tenn and you are ready to throw the towel now?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Euro went from nothing to 5-7" across E Tenn and you are ready to throw the towel now? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro but gfs and nam are saying dusting to a inch that's why im wating one more run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 but gfs and nam are saying dusting to a inch that's why im wating one more run and cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Does anyone have the latest NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Does anyone have the latest NAM? next run is in less then a hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 but gfs and nam are saying dusting to a inch that's why im wating one more runSomething had to be a miss on the NAM 6z. It can make some big swings but going from 10" to 1" on one run at 36 hours out doesn't make any sense. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It seems like we've seen models switch places before, but it does seem strange that the Euro made that big of a swing in one run toward more moisture, and the NAM made that big of a swing to less moisture. GFS is kinda in the middle it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It seems like we've seen models switch places before, but it does seem strange that the Euro made that big of a swing in one run toward more moisture, and the NAM made that big of a swing to less moisture. GFS is kinda in the middle it seems.Especially this close. 5 days out it happens quite often Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Proper sampling can kill a storm in a minute. Hopefully a glitch but hopes have been tempered no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Well the NAM is actually better for me. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 16 minutes ago, Reb said: Proper sampling can kill a storm in a minute. Hopefully a glitch but hopes have been tempered no doubt I agree, Reb. Models really have that energy sampled well now. Probably 12z will have even better data, especially 18z. These northern stream systems are just fickle as heck. March systems, as tnweathernut mentioned, can over perform at times. If in a jam, I take the Euro vs the field. Still very interested in storm 2 as the models do not have it nailed down. The 0z Euro was close to something decent...was just 100 miles too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 @21 nam looks weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Nam looking good so far. As of hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Very much looks like the models like the idea of a strong storm 2. The less of wave 1...the more storm 2 has a chance. I prefer storm 1 because a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. But...a dying wave 1 does make storm 2 stronger. It is possible we get snow from both or whiff on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, BlunderStorm said: Nam looking good so far. As of of hour 24. its weird the tidbits looks weak but the pivotal looks good weird same model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Mrwolf1972 said: its weird the tidbits looks weak but the pivotal looks good weird same model Odd indeed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 First wave is flatter and the slp over the western GOM is slightly NE and stronger compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: First wave is flatter and the slp over the western GOM is slightly NE and stronger compared to 6z lp in texas a little stronger @27 is that our storm if not it don't look good at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I don't trust pivotal's depiction of the NAM. Tropical Tid Bits is probably right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 at 36 its looking stronger hope it don't scoot by to the south its winding up over texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: lp in texas a little stronger @27 is that our storm if not it don't look good at all That will probably be storm 2. At one point, that energy amped storm one and died off the SE coast. Now, it is hanging back and maybe forming storm 2. If you want to see some interesting dynamic, toggle over to 500vort. Plenty of moving parts. Always amazed to see that wee have a model that can show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: That will probably be storm 2. At one point, that energy amped storm one and died off the SE coast. Now, it is hanging back and maybe forming storm 2. Potential is there for three pieces of energy to phase. If you want to see some interesting dynamic, toggle over to 500vort. Plenty of moving parts. Always amazed to see that wee have a model that can show that. fingers crossed we might have a good run this run is slow today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 looks good at 39 really snowing at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: That will probably be storm 2. At one point, that energy amped storm one and died off the SE coast. Now, it is hanging back and maybe forming storm 2. If you want to see some interesting dynamic, toggle over to 500vort. Plenty of moving parts. Always amazed to see that wee have a model that can show that. Scratch that....I am just completely off w the TX piece of energy. It will go into system one and it does die off the SE coast. The energy, which can be seen coming in just to the south of the TX system forms storm 2. Sorry about that. Just now getting up to speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 looks great at 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I am entirely Bumfuzzled... as to what the NAM is cooking up for us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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