BTRWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: The NAM actually shifted North a little 18z para also looks good with 6-7" inside the beltway for the weekend. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=eus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017030618&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=409 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 The NAO plumes do not support suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: The NAO plumes do not support suppression. The 12z NAM shifted everything north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: The 12z NAM shifted everything north The vortex over the NE is south compared to the GFS at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: The vortex over the NE is south compared to the GFS at the same time. The upstream is just as important as downstream. Way too many people look at one component and think that is IT when in reality each potential setup is a myriad of subtle factors all playing off each other. Each can influence or offset the others. The PV to our northeast is one of the more major factors, but what has been causing the trend south over the last 48 hours is mostly a weakening trend in the vort and associated trough coming in off the Pacific. The energy is noticeably weaker each run ejecting from the Rockies into the plains. You can see it right away and that downstream is going to end up a suppressed washed out garbage solution because yes the PV is going to create some suppressive flow. We need a healthy vort to offset that. A healthier system (like the NAM) would pump enough ridging in front as it enters the influence of the PV to allow more amplification and a turn up the coast to some degree. The PV has been there and waffles slightly run to run but there is no overall trend south with that. Its in the same spot it was when we had those 30" along the Mason Dixon line model runs the other day. The difference is the weaker energy from the west. So I would say a trend stronger in that like is more important then a slight change in the PV. There are TWO ways to get this back north, weaken or shift the PV northeast OR strengthen the energy coming in from the west, or a little bit of both. South is definitely a threat but at the range we are not such a minor change in those two factors is VERY possible. Everything is still on the table IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 12z GFS initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: 12z GFS initialized Thanks. Had no idea when it was going to start running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 In a situation like this, wouldn't it make complete sense that the NAM would have guidance north of the other global models due to its tendency to amplify systems more than other models? More amplification = less suppression by the PV? That being said, NAM nailed the northern side of the blizzard last year while others were pushing further south missing NY/NE with the heavy stuff (but of course, little comparison between that system and what we're looking at for this weekend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Thanks. Had no idea when it was going to start running. Breaking news. the Allies won WW2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 00z GFS para looks like the CMC. Weak and suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, H2O said: 0z? Runs off old data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, H2O said: 0z? yes, its most recent run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 missed the para part. my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, H2O said: missed the para part. my bad The output was that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: Runs off old data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 So when do you we worry about the northern trend...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Ask and ye shall receive Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Looks like Friday system is in PA per 12z GFS at hr 66 as SLP is just south of the Mason-Dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Looks like a slightly weaker cold press for the Friday event through 66...hopefully a harbinger of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Friday system is slightly north compared to 06z at hr 60, looks about the same at 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like Friday system is in PA per 12z GFS at hr 66 as SLP is just south of the Mason-Dixon line Well Part 2 I guess comes through a bit later than Part 1... snowing around N MD but temps are mid 30s at hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Looks like a slightly weaker cold press for the Friday event through 66...hopefully a harbinger of things to come. These slight shifts in the Friday thing north can't hurt, but keep in mind back when we were seeing those super amped up solutions that Friday wave was up in NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 at 78 the Heights look better out west I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: These slight shifts in the Friday thing north can't hurt, but keep in mind back when we were seeing those super amped up solutions that Friday wave was up in NY State. Yeah...just killing time. Heights are higher in the PAC NW region at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 With the friday system exiting a bit earlier and further north + the storm entering the NW is a little higher in latitude, this run will give some clues irt how much we are fighting down the line with the sunday storm. My early guess is it *should* come north a little but if it doesn't then we are still a good ways away from getting things right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: at 78 the Heights look better out west I believe There has been a trend for better Western ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I do not want dramatic changes... slowly we need to get better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Eh, vort looks weaker. I'm not getting any warm and fuzzies this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Could be wrong, looks like our 50/50 is a touch farther north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.