paulythegun Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Buck up, folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, paulythegun said: Buck up, folks The ensembles are holding tight and keeping us in the game. What did the euro ensembles show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalBecs said: The ensembles are holding tight and keeping us in the game. What did the euro ensembles show? 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Eps snowfall output for those that don't have it. Friday Event: Trace amounts on the means have pulled a hair north to just south of DC. 1/2 inch line has shifted 25 miles south to where it now runs the length of the Mason Dixon line. One inch line has withdrawn significantly north and west into northern Pa and the mountains of western PA. The lower resolution control run matches the op run to a tee with the strip of snow running through MD, heaviest strip of 1/2 inch running roughly from Dc and eastward to the shore. Looking at individual members show that roughly 3/5 favor a non-event and the other 2/5 have a solution that favors around the MD/PA border and north with trace amounts to several inches. Sunday event: Nailing this time frame is somewhat difficult because we are seeing an uptick with snowfall immediately afterwards. Haven't looked closely into why this is occurring yet but have to question whether we may be evolving into a new solution in regards to this storm. (For better or worse is anyone's guess) Maybe interaction with the energy that shows up on the op to the west/northwest trailing the southern low? So my numbers will be based on a cutoff of 12z Monday. Snowfall means still favor a southerly track of heaviest snowfall through southern Va as was shown on the 12Z. Snowfall totals have also been cut down somewhat region wide (guestimate of 1/2 inch on avg to the north to an inch on avg to the south in VA). Through the whole DC/Balt region we are now seeing a one inch mean vs the 1 1/2 inch seen on the 12z. Control run closely mirrors the op run with snowfall amounts and the max strip running on the VA/NCA border. After looking at the individual members I do believe that the ensembles are hinting at the possibility of a different solution in coming runs. Will not bother counting and parsing through it at this point but I would say that roughly half the members now show little to no event and the other half that do, favor the more southerly solution. Post Sunday event to day 10: Will not even bother trying to sort out what we were considering the follow up storm because the picture at this point is just too muddied with the almost continuous slight uptick with snow through this period. So will give 10 day totals instead. The 2 inch line runs south of DC and Baltimore with the 2 1/2 inch running through the northwest suburbs. 3 inch line runs the Mason Dixon line. This is a reduction from the 12z which saw the 3 1/2 inch line just south of the cities and the 4 inch line in the NW suburbs. Totals through 15 days: WE have also seen a reduction through 15 days. 3 inch line runs through the cities with the 3 1/2 in the NW suburbs vs. 12Z which had the 4 inch line just south of the cities with the 5 inch line in the farther suburbs to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Pretty sick snowfall mean on the 6z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalBecs said: The ensembles are holding tight and keeping us in the game. What did the euro ensembles show? wow. that was a moral booster. Thank u sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Pretty sick snowfall mean on the 6z GEFS. Was just looking at that. Definitely a better look through the whole 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Has anyone else noticed that the ensemble members that barley have anything for Sunday have something like 2-3 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Would like to see more white and light blues in the ensembles, but it clearly shows we are in the game. I think it's far too early to get concerned about this south trend unless it suddenly goes down into NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, PaEasternWX said: Has anyone else noticed that the ensemble members that barley have anything for Sunday have something like 2-3 days later. Yep, its been covered. Just a page or so back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 ha what a step backwards. MBY gets more from friday morning (4.5) than sunday (1) per 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, mappy said: ha what a step backwards. MBY gets more from friday morning (4.5) than sunday (1) I think Friday ends up being "our" storm....and Sunday is "their" storm if ya get my drift all good w/ me. Snow on snow and maybe more snow Tuesday. I'll take it. 6z wasnt discouraging either...if you look at snow maps. Brings Fridays a little south for yall and Sunday....well thats up in the air. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 24 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Buck up, folks Wow. Does most of that come from wave 2 (Sunday)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Still don't get the interest in the Friday event. I don't see how that's really accumulating for anyone except maybe some of the usual spots, but I'm still a bit skeptical there with surface temps and rates that aren't great. Maybe I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Wow. Does most of that come from wave 2 (Sunday)? Yep. i think you guys will do well on Sunday. Get your beer now. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Woo! Just saw that at the same time as my "Indian Dance" mid-term grade: 99% -- only deduction was for dropping my wrist. Seriously though, this looks like it's going to be an interesting track over the next couple of days. Indian Snow Dance? If so we now know who to blame if we fail in the coming week or so. Just couldn't keep that dang gone wrist up, could you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Yep. i think you guys will do well on Sunday. Get your beer now. Nut If the Euro/GGEM/Ukie were looking like that I'd be more enthusiastic. Maybe that ensemble run though is the start of a good day of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yep. i think you guys will do well on Sunday. Get your beer now. Nut As LWX said...shortwaves are over the PAC...more time needed to sort it out...I can live with that for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Pretty sick snowfall mean on the 6z GEFS. That is the for the total 240 hours... Doesn't tell you what days it will fall. From what I am hearing, we are getting pushed back again to a 7 day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I think Friday ends up being "our" storm....and Sunday is "their" storm if ya get my drift all good w/ me. Snow on snow and maybe more snow Tuesday. I'll take it. 6z wasnt discouraging either...if you look at snow maps. Brings Fridays a little south for yall and Sunday....well thats up in the air. Nut and neither will be my storm per the 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Looks like a mean dragon coming in from the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 23 minutes ago, BristowWx said: As LWX said...shortwaves are over the PAC...more time needed to sort it out...I can live with that for now There is still the potential for a decent storm in our area , just as much chance as nothing at all. Too early for sure. Small changes in the Pac with the PNA and also the future movement of the PV and the related changes in the NAO block as well. DT was commenting that importance of the Pac in the Sunday event was not being given enough credit . While others were saying the small changes in Canada have major implications in our area for the potential storm's impact on Sunday. HM originally thought, not sure now, that there would be a last in series storm, sometime next week, I believe Tuesday or Wednesday. Of course yesterday the Euro and EPS showed some changes in the duration of the block, so that outcome is not so certain. Everything is a domino effect modeling and the weather. Exciting still to watch, but I do not want to over commit due to this winter's reputation and how there have been multiple examples that supressed outcomes do indeed happen in March . Even systems weakening is another example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: and neither will be my storm per the 6z GFS I hate to say it, but somewhere in the pit of my stomach, there is a feeling that a NO SNOW cone could start in western md, and come right up through my neck of the woods. this is based on a potential northern correction for storm 1, and storm 2 staying too far south. I'd be huffin cirrus w/ both. Not likely as I think #2 can and will correct somewhat north of current and at least give me a little lovin. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, frd said: HM originally thought, not sure now, that there would be a last in series storm, sometime next week, I believe Tuesday or Wednesday. Of course yesterday the Euro and EPS showed some changes in the duration of the block, so that outcome is not so certain Having nothing to do with any current NWP output but everything to do with history, I keep looking for the first indications of and Archambault Event somewhere down the line as blocking breaks down and the arctic air retreats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, das said: Having nothing to do with any current NWP output but everything to do with history, I keep looking for the first indications of and Archambault Event somewhere down the line as blocking breaks down and the arctic air retreats. Excellent point ! And having some extremely cold air North of us in place is a good thing. Have a question, if you can reply. Looking at the NAO ensemble forecasts on the American model I do see a sudden uptick in the NAO forecast basically right now, then down and back up. To have a true Archambault event is it more important to just have a sudden change from negative to positive, or do you need to achieve say a negative 2 or negative 3 NAO and then swing up to positive? So, basically is a Archambault event dependent on both the magnitude of change, as well as the change itself ? I always thought, but not certain, you needed a really negative NAO to suddenly jump to plus 2 or something and for the block to totally breakdown to meet the definition of true Archambault. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 39 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Looks like a mean dragon coming in from the NE Hmmm. I see an Ellinwood unicorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, paulythegun said: Buck up, folks Wow! Anyone have the means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I'd like to see the gefs maps at hour 144 if someone would post them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I'd like to see the gefs maps at hour 144 if someone would post them. Ask and ye shall receive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 11 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I never had that and totaled 40". Interesting. I have a 4 hour period in my records where I got over 16 inches. Have to love the micro climate out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 The NAM actually shifted North a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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