aldie 22 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Wouldn't shock me if 70s show back up for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Southern edge of Friday system is a little south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: After looking at the ensembles I really think we are going to see the upcoming 4/5+ day period morph into something with a different look then what we have been following the last few days so I would not be surprised if the feature you mentioned plays a part. Hopefully if we do see changes it is for the better. Agreed. Its a continuously evolving situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Wouldn't shock me if 70s show back up for Sunday With the pv located in SE Canada, and the models have been steadfast on it, I think we are pretty well locked in with cold. I think it is more of a question of weather it will be sunny, snowy or something in between. Though this winter whos to say anything with certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 North of 00z, south of 12z, but definitely slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 06z GFS has upped the ante with Fridays system. Coming wetter then previous runs and slightly farther south. Shows an inch and half just north of Baltimore and 2 to 3 inch totals running along the Md/Pa line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Not terrible for us, but congrats south VA. I feel like it almost wanted to turn the corner at 120-126, but failed. Or am I imagining that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 GFS says here's your 2-4 inches so you can stay interested in this system for 48 more hours before I cave to euro and give you flurries and high clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 06z GFS looks almost the same... strengthens/redevelops the low just south of Hatteras. About 4-6 inches for DC. Bigger totals, 6-8 inches, just to DC's south by 50/75 miles. (according to IWMs, which may be overdone a bit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: Not terrible for us, but congrats south VA. I feel like it almost wanted to turn the corner at 120-126, but failed. Or am I imagining that? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow24&runtime=2017030706&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 The Friday deal to me is nothing other than mood flakes. Nothing is sticking with how warm it has been and with those surface temps. Maybe the usual suspects closer to the Mason-Dixon line get some accumulation, but I'm not very excited about something dropping .2 to .3 qpf with those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: GFS says here's your 2-4 inches so you can stay interested in this system for 48 more hours before I cave to euro and give you flurries and high clouds. perhaps. but what I saw was a slower system that was a bit more moist. the placement of the Low is somewhat better at 132. I didn't think we lost any ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Looking at the 500's and the initial setup for the possible Tues storm looks better. Would not be surprised to see an improvement with regards to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Dews in the teens as the precip approaches...reminds me of the January system (ducks). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Anybody can just blame the PAC, I myself believe it was the person that started the first trackable event of the winter. Their negative mojo ruined the winter for us. I say we find him/her and punish them with extreme prejudice. On a side note. Just started glancing over the individual members of the EPS and noticed quite a few (maybe close to half?) have little to no storm for the Sunday time frame. Though this isn't a hard and fast rule but after looking through about half of the members it seems that there may be a slight correlation between the Sunday and the Tues storms. Sunday storm and the Tuesday chances diminish. No or weak and sheared out Sunday storm and the Tuesday event increases. But we are at the point in the season where you have to question whether delayed actually means denied. So I guess we will see. There is a definite correlation there. I said something about it the other day to bob. There are two reasons there is a delicate balance between the two. They are close together so the flow behind an armored up first system would naturally inhibit the ability of the next to amplify. I think the bigger issue is how they are evolving. The second looks to be digging more. However the stronger Sunday solutions leave no southern energy behind and so the day 7 storm is just a northern stream wave. The more suppressed Sunday solutions become so positively tilted and strung out they leave enough southern stream energy behind to spin up the storm after. Right now the second storm has the bigger upside but lots of moving parts so it's not a high probability threat yet either. So I'm not yet ready to say root for a weak Sunday storm. There may be a way to score both but it would be difficult. A little more spacing and some more dig plus some stj energy the guidance isn't seeing. But the two splitting the energy evenly and we miss both is the greater risk right now. Your other point about the suppression is spot on. There are a lot of moving parts. The ridging out west. The nao. The 50/50. And the vort strength all play a part in the balance. One can offset the other. But the biggest issue I see is a trend to weaken the system coming in. It's noticeably weaker coming out into the plains each run. That needs to reverse. A healthy vort will pump the ridging a bit in front and suddenly this is back to a winning solution. Of course continues relaxing of the PV would aid in that also. In the end the risk seems that Sunday's storm is weak and coming perhaps a day too soon but it robs just enough energy to prevent the system 2 days later from amplifying to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 A touch better look with the shortwave for Sunday. Tilt is not as positively tilted as it approaches the coast so it allows for a little quicker intensification, though too late to bring the low further north for our region. If in the following runs we can get that tilt back to neutral or even negative as it hits the coast I think we see a good chance of seeing that low pulled further north more so into our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is a definite correlation there. I said something about it the other day to bob. There are two reasons there is a delicate balance between the two. They are close together so the flow behind an armored up first system would naturally inhibit the ability of the next to amplify. I think the bigger issue is how they are evolving. The second looks to be digging more. However the stronger Sunday solutions leave no southern energy behind and so the day 7 storm is just a northern stream wave. The more suppressed Sunday solutions become so positively tilted and strung out they leave enough southern stream energy behind to spin up the storm after. Right now the second storm has the bigger upside but lots of moving parts so it's not a high probability threat yet either. So I'm not yet ready to say root for a weak Sunday storm. There may be a way to score both but it would be difficult. A little more spacing and some more dig plus some stj energy the guidance isn't seeing. But the two splitting the energy evenly and we miss both is the greater risk right now. Your other point about the suppression is spot on. There are a lot of moving parts. The ridging out west. The nao. The 50/50. And the vort strength all play a part in the balance. One can offset the other. But the biggest issue I see is a trend to weaken the system coming in. It's noticeably weaker coming out into the plains each run. That needs to reverse. A healthy vort will pump the ridging a bit in front and suddenly this is back to a winning solution. Of course continues relaxing of the PV would aid in that also. In the end the risk seems that Sunday's storm is weak and coming perhaps a day too soon but it robs just enough energy to prevent the system 2 days later from amplifying to our south. The winter of 16/17....the never ending search for new ways to fail. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 34 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: After looking at the ensembles I really think we are going to see the upcoming 4/5+ day period morph into something with a different look then what we have been following the last few days so I would not be surprised if the feature you mentioned plays a part. Hopefully if we do see changes it is for the better. It's been evolving towards less amplification with silunday a more amplified system around the 14/15th before a relax then perhaps one more attempt at digging the trough back around the 19th. No way to know how that plays out but I'm not in favor because we're swapping what was a pretty simple and good setup for a complicated many moving parts one. Yea it's still possible we win. I could see getting some snow Friday Sunday and then a big storm Tuesday. But I now see a much greater threat of us escaping this whole thing without snow of any consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: A touch better look with the shortwave for Sunday. Tilt is not as positively tilted as it approaches the coast so it allows for a little quicker intensification, though too late to bring the low further north for our region. If in the following runs we can get that tilt back to neutral or even negative as it hits the coast I think we see a good chance of seeing that low pulled further north more so into our region. Rare is the 5-5.5 day storm that doesn't come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Not terrible for us, but congrats south VA. I feel like it almost wanted to turn the corner at 120-126, but failed. Or am I imagining that? No your right. It does turn the corner but too late for us. But that's a good sign. Not all modeled Richmond snows are the same. The euro look is just bad. Totally flat abs squashed with little room to adjust north. The look can be wrong of course but within that framework the storm has no shot to impact us so we need major structural changes. The gfs on the other hand is much closer and allows the system to amplify and turn the corner some just too little too late. But that's a sign it's not dead in the water. I'm actually ok with this gfs run for this time lead. The euro ggem idea is much more troubling though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Definitely a much better look for our possible Tues storm. Much better dig with the trough and the placement of it is where we basically want to see it. And looking at the 500mb anomalies in the western gulf as well seeing a shortwave in the southern flow, though the timing of that is somewhat off right now, leads me to believe that there is some decent potential there. If we begin to see the 500mb low anomalies from the western gulf start building northward towards the trough in subsequent runs then my interest will definitely begin to rise for that period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 30 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking at the 500's and the initial setup for the possible Tues storm looks better. Would not be surprised to see an improvement with regards to that. 25 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: H5 looks much better at hour 162. Nice west ridge flex and east trough developes. That's the definite way things are trending. Just hope we don't get half way there and end up stuck in between the solutions we need wrt Sunday/Tuesday. The new cips analogs aren't as good for north of DC. Picked up more classic suppressed storms like early march 1980 and moved the south camp higher up the list. Overnight was not a good set of runs imo. But before people think I'm too down it's more frustration that we went from a pretty simple setup to complicated and hate being unsure and right now I am. I'm not even sure which way to root for all 3 waves. I lack clarity on how this one is going. I can see how it could go and the way it's trending towards day 7 and away from day 5 but I'm not even sure which threat is my best bet. South of DC it's definitely Sunday. I hate when I don't feel I have a handle on the pattern and right now I don't. But I'm not thinking we're screwed just unsure of things in general. Even more so then usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The winter of 16/17....the never ending search for new ways to fail. Lol Hopefully we get some face cards on today's draw. Last night was mostly useless cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Glad it's only Tuesday. The Sunday deal is far from set in stone. Just curious if the NAO was negative when Norfolk had their blizzard earlier this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hopefully we get some face cards on today's draw. Last night was mostly useless cards. Today begins a trend towards more amplification. Adjustments north forthcoming. Plenty of time- still almost 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's the definite way things are trending. Just hope we don't get half way there and end up stuck in between the solutions we need wrt Sunday/Tuesday. The new cips analogs aren't as good for north of DC. Picked up more classic suppressed storms like early march 1980 and moved the south camp higher up the list. Overnight was not a good set of runs imo. But before people think I'm too down it's more frustration that we went from a pretty simple setup to complicated and hate being unsure and right now I am. I'm not even sure which way to root for all 3 waves. I lack clarity on how this one is going. I can see how it could go and the way it's trending towards day 7 and away from day 5 but I'm not even sure which threat is my best bet. South of DC it's definitely Sunday. I hate when I don't feel I have a handle on the pattern and right now I don't. But I'm not thinking we're screwed just unsure of things in general. Even more so then usual. I know that many will only look at the snowfall maps and see that they have diminished over the last day. That will equate to we are once again seeing a fail. But when I look below the surface into the details of why they are diminishing I see that the snowfall maps are not telling the whole story. What I see is that the models have been pretty steadfast on the key features, the pv and the blocking, which makes this such a loaded pattern for the next week +. So when I see the loss in snow fall I have to question why. And the why in my mind is the fact that the models are evolving on how they want to handle and key on with the smaller features through the CONUS. At this point I feel the diminished snowfall totals or no more then a function that the models are in a transition between solutions. So once we see the other solution begins to assert itself I would not be surprised in the least if we once again begin to see those snowfalls begin to increase and be focused on slightly different time frames. At this point, even after a day of crappy runs, I am still just as optimistic as I was before I saw them. In my mind the pattern is loaded for bear and the only question I have is will it pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: A touch better look with the shortwave for Sunday. Tilt is not as positively tilted as it approaches the coast so it allows for a little quicker intensification, though too late to bring the low further north for our region. If in the following runs we can get that tilt back to neutral or even negative as it hits the coast I think we see a good chance of seeing that low pulled further north more so into our region. I think 6z looks better as well. I still think that small piece of ss energy is a player here. If you actually compare 0z and 6z on the 500 mb vorticity panels, you can see the southern vort run out ahead on the 0z run, but on 6z it looks like it captures it right at the coast. If that piece of energy trends a bit stronger and/or the 2 can phase a touch sooner, the wave would amplify, be more neutral, and climb up the coast more. You can see the difference by comparing the 2 panels below. At 0z that ss vort is well east of the Delmarva, then look at 6z- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 After January's fail.. No one should bank on major north shifts. I expect some.. and actually there were some pretty substantial north shifts in Jan.. but this thing went as far south as I would ever feel comfortable with. Need to see that turn today.. but not too dramatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Today begins a trend towards more amplification. Adjustments north forthcoming. Plenty of time- still almost 5 days out. I hope your right but think you are a day early....which isn't good for me. #2 is your storm Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: After January's fail.. No one should bank on major north shifts. I expect some.. and actually there were some pretty substantial north shifts in Jan.. but this thing went as far south as I would ever feel comfortable with. Need to see that turn today.. but not too dramatic I'm with you....if this thing sits on the NC VA border I expect a reasonable shift that would be acceptable. If it starts showing a Raleigh Durham bomb then I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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