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March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yes, was kind of thinking the same thing now that you mention it.  Different situation and all, but I distinctly remember the Saturday afternoon before the blizzard seeing all the major globals lock in on a significant event.  There were differences in the details for a couple more days, but it was clear at that moment we were on the hook.  Would be nice if that's the case here too...we'll see.  I also remember that there was a difference in how the evolution of the blizzard was depicted early on:  a system coming right out of the Gulf vs. some kind of hybrid/re-development of a system in the STJ (but can't recall which models had which solutions).  That resulted in some timing differences as well of course.

I should have some of the model runs on my home computer... I will check after work

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2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

SV, which is a bit more sensitive to 2M temps, so a good conservative optiont4kQdw7.png

Solid. That's fairly impressive with the forecasted H5 setup. I'd like to see the streams phase to get a better deformation axis into the area and slow the system down some as it gains latitude. This has the ingredients for a top shelf KU, but with such a complicated setup, it's going to take some time for this all to get sorted. Have to like trends this afternoon though. As MN Transplant said, there's multiple ways to achieve snow in the setup as shown by guidance. Can't be too bad to have that on your side. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am WAY more worried that this ends up over amped and too far west then I am it misses up to the east.  The trough is diving in pretty far west, there is a lot of ridging in front of it, and the 50/50 is vacating the area pretty quick.  Now we need all of that to get this to come up but there is room for this to over amp if the trend goes too far.  If we fail that is the bigger risk to me.  JMHI

Exactly...given what we've seen today, this is perhaps the greater concern.  I don't know if that's necessarily a "better" concern to have than worrying it will get squashed, LOL!  But I believe most would rather worry about too amped than getting sheared out and let the chips fall where they will...at least that gives a better chance at getting something I suppose.

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

sounds like your typical March bomb to me

I'd prefer the CMC or GFS solutions

Still playing catchup with all the models so i am not sure how I feel about any one solution at this time. Had hoped to catch up through reading through the discussion but to say it was some what rough sledding would be an understatement. But I am to the point I don't care how we get it just as long as we get it. 

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