March med-long range disco thread 2

[Deck Pic]

basically a 6-12" event, higher amounts north and west, closer to 6" in city, lesser amounts once you get south an east..

[MN Transplant]

Matt will have it before me, but I can't imagine given the 500 map at 120 that we are going to close off like the GFS.

[snjókoma]

Very similar to 2/13/14. Surface is an issue at 126 when its still snowing but looks like 4-8" for DC and a little SE... 8-14" in the N/W burbs.

[Bob Chill]

Narrow but intense deform band just west of DC  tuesday morning. That's going to skew totals and also extremely unlikely that it's accurate. 

[Ji]

Foot plus for favored suburbs)....i wonder if it can even get better in future runs

[snjókoma]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Narrow but intense deform band just west of DC  tuesday morning. That's going to skew totals and also extremely unlikely that it's accurate. 

 also surface is mid 30s... unlikely to be accumulating snow with march sun, at least in DC. 

[Deck Pic]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Matt will have it before me, but I can't imagine given the 500 map at 120 that we are going to close off like the GFS.

southern stream races out ahead and doesn't close until well past our latitude...lagging NS trough closes off right over us or just north

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks to be a wet-ish storm and trees are starting to leaf out.

[EB89]

[Bob Chill]

Northern stream low never gives in so there's no full phase. It's still intact @ 132 almost to buffalo. 

[attml]

 

[Deck Pic]

QPF - doesn't include tomorrow

 

[Bob Chill]

So all 3 major globals hit us solid but in different ways. THAT is nothing to get mad at. 

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Not sure why Panasonic labeled as Euro, but here you go.

Keep in mind that based on Weatherbell snowmap Northern Maryland gets 2-3" from Friday.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Just now, Snowman. said:

Keep in mind that based on Weatherbell snowmap Northern Maryland gets 1-3" from Friday.

Yeah forgot to add that. Shave off 1-3" around Mason Dixon 

[Amped]

the NS 850 low over NE Ohio is causing the Temp issues.  Get that further south and I95 will be fine.

[ErinInTheSky]

[Deck Pic]

without Friday's event

 

[North Balti Zen]

For it missing a phase, that's a pretty nice slug of snow.

[MN Transplant]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

So all 3 major globals hit us solid but in different ways. THAT is nothing to get mad at. 

I was looking back at Jan. 2016 a little while ago and I remember making the comment during the lead-up that the models were coming to the same solution but using different paths.  It just wanted to snow.  Hope that is the case here.

[mappy]

GUYS if you are going to post WeatherBell maps crop the damn name and stuff off. 

[psuhoffman]

I am WAY more worried that this ends up over amped and too far west then I am it misses up to the east.  The trough is diving in pretty far west, there is a lot of ridging in front of it, and the 50/50 is vacating the area pretty quick.  Now we need all of that to get this to come up but there is room for this to over amp if the trend goes too far.  If we fail that is the bigger risk to me.  JMHI

[Deck Pic]

SV, which is a bit more sensitive to 2M temps, so a good conservative option

[snjókoma]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

SV, which is a bit more sensitive to 2M temps, so a good conservative option

scale? 

[Deck Pic]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I am WAY more worried that this ends up over amped and too far west then I am it misses up to the east.  The trough is diving in pretty far west, there is a lot of ridging in front of it, and the 50/50 is vacating the area pretty quick.  Now we need all of that to get this to come up but there is room for this to over amp if the trend goes too far.  If we fail that is the bigger risk to me.  JMHI

 

cosign....I don't need 42 degrees and rain

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I am WAY more worried that this ends up over amped and too far west then I am it misses up to the east.  The trough is diving in pretty far west, there is a lot of ridging in front of it, and the 50/50 is vacating the area pretty quick.  Now we need all of that to get this to come up but there is room for this to over amp if the trend goes too far.  If we fail that is the bigger risk to me.  JMHI

You're all over it.  This is the biggest issue, but I like where we are right now.  I know everyone else does too.

[showmethesnow]

Looking at Kuchera map that factors in ratios. Once you get beyond the cities into the colder air to the north and west the totals get bumped up somewhat to the point that portions of northern Carroll and Frederick counties see close to 2 feet.

[Deck Pic]

Just now, snjókoma said:

scale? 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at Kuchera map that factors in ratios. Once you get beyond the cities into the colder air to the north and west the totals get bumped up somewhat to the point that portions of northern Carroll and Frederick counties see close to 2 feet.

sounds like your typical March bomb to me

I'd prefer the CMC or GFS solutions

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

I was looking back at Jan. 2016 a little while ago and I remember making the comment during the lead-up that the models were coming to the same solution but using different paths.  It just wanted to snow.  Hope that is the case here.

Yes, was kind of thinking the same thing now that you mention it.  Different situation and all, but I distinctly remember the Saturday afternoon before the blizzard seeing all the major globals lock in on a significant event.  There were differences in the details for a couple more days, but it was clear at that moment we were on the hook.  Would be nice if that's the case here too...we'll see.  I also remember that there was a difference in how the evolution of the blizzard was depicted early on:  a system coming right out of the Gulf vs. some kind of hybrid/re-development of a system in the STJ (but can't recall which models had which solutions).  That resulted in some timing differences as well of course.