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March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think you guys are talking about Jan 2011 with the upper level low snowfall.

I thought Jan 2010 had the same feature come through. I remember Jan 2011 well. That dumped like 8 inches of heavy, wet snow in about 4 hours. But it went from rain to sleet to snow and was gone in about 6 hours.

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26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That trailing upper level low likely won't give much more than instability snows in the 1-2" dept. The atmosphere already unleashed the mid-levels prior to that panel. There's only so much it can do. 

It depends, I never underestimate what convective instability and rapid height falls can do.  Feb 9 2010 I already had 12" from the WAA front end snows, I know that missed down your way but the WAA was an overachiever up here, then a lull for about 8 hours overnight, then the upper low came across and somehow found another 18" of moisture to suck out of the atmosphere.  I am not disagreeing with you assessment that it is highly unlikely, but get a H5 pass like that and anything can happen.  Feb 2014 was another example of the H5 finding enough moisture despite the initial wave taking plenty off with it.  Those things can produce sometimes regardless. 

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18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's good to be in the bullseye snow axis at a 5-6 day lead time right? I mean, what could possibly go wrong for our subforums? Pretty much a lock with only room for marked improvements at this point yes?

your point is taken, but some of the big ones locked in early and we stayed good all the way through.  Dec 2009, Feb 2010, January 2016 to name a few.  Even the January 2011 storm was pretty well handled given the complicated nature of it from like 5 days out.  That does not mean the chances of a fail are not there because I am cherry picking the wins, but there are enough examples of times the storm locked in 5 days out to think its not necessarily a bad thing to be in a good spot now. 

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