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March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It may not be as juiced as the gfs verbatim but it's a MUCH safer evolution for us. It would come in like a wall and puke powder. 

Bob,  you feel better we have the GFS and the CMC both with a big storm?   

Or,  do we await for the ensembles before getting carried away?  

 

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1 minute ago, frd said:

Bob,  you feel better we have the GFS and the CMC both with a big storm?   

Or,  do we await for the ensembles before getting carried away?  

 

I won't feel better until I'm done shoveling. I'm not mad at 12z so far though. No doubt about that. 

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The run is obviously a happy one but I'm not a fan of less digging in the NS. But if the southern energy is going to save the say then sobeit. 

If the NS digs deeper then the solution would be monsterous. If it trends more shallow...well...we won't discuss that option. 

This is a "complicated" setup.  There are lots of variables that all will effect each other and the outcome for us.  The three big ones are the dig and strength of the northern stream vort, the strength of the STJ energy, and the phase.  If we simplify things to those 3 what we want is

1. more dig from the northern stream

2. stronger STJ system

3. Faster cleaner phase

So these 3 factors all will jump around a little bit and that impacts the final outcome.  This run the NS vort was slightly less in our favor but was more then overcome by the southern stream being more amped up.  You are right we don't want to see a trend wrong in that NS vort because if it keeps going that way eventually unless the STJ becomes completely dominant along with that trend it would hurt us.  But it seems to have been a very minor change.  Overall I don't necessarily think we need much improvement on the H5, if it holds steady, we could win with improvements in the STJ and Phase side of things.  The H5 has looked pretty darn good to me for a while but its had this weird strung out surface solution and a slow face or a fujiwara type thing on most runs that prevents things from really dumping on us.  If the STJ is more dominant and the focus on the system NOT the northern stream wave, and the phasing happens cleaner, we can do just fine with the H5 about where it is now.  If those two factors do not trend our way then we would need improvements on the H5 to offset and compensate.  Still a LOT of time to see where this is going, but I still feel like I hitched my train to the right track with this setup vs the others. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is a "complicated" setup.  There are lots of variables that all will effect each other and the outcome for us.  The three big ones are the dig and strength of the northern stream vort, the strength of the STJ energy, and the phase.  If we simplify things to those 3 what we want is

1. more dig from the northern stream

2. stronger STJ system

3. Faster cleaner phase

So these 3 factors all will jump around a little bit and that impacts the final outcome.  This run the NS vort was slightly less in our favor but was more then overcome by the southern stream being more amped up.  You are right we don't want to see a trend wrong in that NS vort because if it keeps going that way eventually unless the STJ becomes completely dominant along with that trend it would hurt us.  But it seems to have been a very minor change.  Overall I don't necessarily think we need much improvement on the H5, if it holds steady, we could win with improvements in the STJ and Phase side of things.  The H5 has looked pretty darn good to me for a while but its had this weird strung out surface solution and a slow face or a fujiwara type thing on most runs that prevents things from really dumping on us.  If the STJ is more dominant and the focus on the system NOT the northern stream wave, and the phasing happens cleaner, we can do just fine with the H5 about where it is now.  If those two factors do not trend our way then we would need improvements on the H5 to offset and compensate.  Still a LOT of time to see where this is going, but I still feel like I hitched my train to the right track with this setup vs the others. 

I couldn't have said it better myself. Still lots of ways and time to screw this up and even whiff completely, but I like how it keeps trending better and I think there is a lot of room for improvement with potentially an earlier phase and capture.

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14 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

thats the nicest map I've seen all year! 

Shame there is no chance at all it snows this year. 

Just messing with you, and we have a LOOOONG way to go, not celebrating until I am measuring and even then I might have to pinch myself a few times. 

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